South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z onwards

[chris55]

Ian is simply gathering all the data and giving his, as well as the met offices, interpretation of it. As it stands tonight, Friday "in the computers" shows some significant snowfall in parts towards the end of the working week. Just as previously the data pointed to a little more widespread snow for today. Things for toady changed marginally and that was enough for rain to fall instead of snow. In our Island nation snow is difficult to forecast with such fine perameters invloved.

Forecasters can only rely on the data available.

However I am more confident for Friday than I was for today, as Ian says " a classic battleground scenario"

Edited January 14, 2013 by chris55

[khodds]

My last post talked about the temperatures in the SW, I found this chart for Thursday at 7.00am. Its not even that cold in the SW.

1c is cold enough for snow? It's probably because there is meant to be precipitation falling then?

[sherrie]

im a bit confused about these temperatures as well, as far as i remember the years that we have had a lot of snow here it has been cold for a few days before snow, i mean really cold with hore frost, even i dont think its that cold right now and i feel the cold! Also on both the ITV and BBC local weather forecasts for where i am gave daytime temps of 6c, that isnt out of the ordinary sort of cold is it? or is it, am i missing something?

[jtay]

Im glad someone posted this. He said last week that saturday night would see some snow to the north of here up in Somerset. And possible Sunday.

He then mentioned bothersome snow for today. And we've had none. Its been rain showers this evening, so i feel a bit let down.

The operative word when getting down to detail in these situations is 'could'.

[theprophecyman]

That streamer looks heavy and intense but quite narrow so its going to be luck who gets it...

Yeah, seems to be gaining some intensity, looking at the current path I would guess it will be west of my location, but will be interesting as you've said for some people.....

[dec10snow]

My last post talked about the temperatures in the SW, I found this chart for Thursday at 7.00am. Its not even that cold in the SW.

It doesn't have to be too cold though, as just posted in the MOD thread, the uppers don't even have to be that cold, e.g. Feb 1978 produced loads of snow for the SW, even to coastal areas, but look at the uppers:

http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=153886

[philglossop]

Typically I forgot to record BBC Spotlight- any idea what David Braine had to say for us down in Deepest Devon?

[dec10snow]

Hello, my first post so please be nice to me!

I think the problem with the current cold spell is that the charts at more than 4-5 days out are producing lots of eye candy which the forecasters are leaping on and ramping up the situation. I can only really remember once or twice in the last 15 years that an Atlantic low has brought snow to the west country. And is this cold snap as 'serious' as the media are making out? In my mind temperatures down to -4 or -5 overnight should be standard winter fare and should produce some nice clear sunny days.

Hello!

[Dorsetbred]

Hello, my first post so please be nice to me!

I think the problem with the current cold spell is that the charts at more than 4-5 days out are producing lots of eye candy which the forecasters are leaping on and ramping up the situation. I can only really remember once or twice in the last 15 years that an Atlantic low has brought snow to the west country. And is this cold snap as 'serious' as the media are making out? In my mind temperatures down to -4 or -5 overnight should be standard winter fare and should produce some nice clear sunny days.

Hi, and welcome to the Netweather friendliest thread! Your right, and I do agree, I have seen SO MANY attacks from the west, be it SW NW or plain old W, and they all bring mild incursions. This suggested friday possibility, to me, goes the same way. IF it gets into the UK, then mild weather will follow for many many days as the Pest from the West wins back ground from the Beast from East.

Reading around there are many reasons why this whole affair has been seemingly over-played, be it SSW, be it model craziness call it what you will.

Again, it's another learning event, one I hope the models learn from!

Let's move on to the next spell, as this one is a has-been, although interesting.

As to a "Battleground" scenario, what's the fight, as the "cold" air isn't THAT cold, as proven today. Unless some real cold air digs in in front of Friday's encroaching fluid, I'm still there with it being a rain event.Suggested shifts, tweaks and minor adjustments for today's scenario, still tell me we need the colder air in place before the Pest arrives.

Edited January 14, 2013 by Dorsetbred

[AWD]

My last post talked about the temperatures in the SW, I found this chart for Thursday at 7.00am. Its not even that cold in the SW.

That's based solely on the GFS. All other models show it colder. Plus this from Ian;

ARPEGE evolution and 850's support UKMO-GM almost exactly up to 00z Fri. Colder air somewhat further west compared to GFS.

[DanDorsetUK]

Im not allowing myself to get to excited about friday, still a long way of! Also if you look we have rain coming in on saturday so if we do get snow get out in it quick cos it will be washed away on saturday according to gfs.

[SNOWYLAD]

Hi, and welcome to the Netweather friendliest thread! Your right, and I do agree, I have seen SO MANY attacks from the west, be it SW NW or plain old W, and they all bring mild incursions. This suggested friday possibility, to me, goes the same way. IF it gets into the UK, then mild weather will follow for many many days as the Pest from the West wins back ground from the Beast from East.

Reading around there are many reasons why this whole affair has been seemingly over-played, be it SSW, be it model craziness call it what you will.

Again, it's another learning event, one I hope the models learn from!

Let's move on to the next spell, as this one is a has-been, although interesting.

Its a shame and I hope the 'event' on Friday does come off, but compared to 2009 and 2010 this is not really anything out of the ordinary and I think secretly we all know other than a bit of wet slush on Friday that may just be it, I so hope I am wrong though!

[Blizzardof82]

Anyone else notice the streamer developing in north west Wales and moving in our direction, could be alot of, something lol, falling in some parts of the west country later if that lot holds together.

Just noticed that on meto radar probably be all taken by the Welsh mountains but I am keeping an eye on it

[kent]

How kind thanks, would be nice to finally see some snow! Only saw it falling on one day last year in Feb, but even then it didn't settle... Last settling snow I've seen was in December 2010! Hence my username

My snowman disappeared 5 years ago to go shopping at John Lewis`s Havent seen him since.

[Schmalex]

Does anyone think that the potential band of snow on Friday could reach as far east as Newbury?

[karlos1983]

Hi, and welcome to the Netweather friendliest thread! Your right, and I do agree, I have seen SO MANY attacks from the west, be it SW NW or plain old W, and they all bring mild incursions. This suggested friday possibility, to me, goes the same way. IF it gets into the UK, then mild weather will follow for many many days as the Pest from the West wins back ground from the Beast from East.

Reading around there are many reasons why this whole affair has been seemingly over-played, be it SSW, be it model craziness call it what you will.

Again, it's another learning event, one I hope the models learn from!

Let's move on to the next spell, as this one is a has-been, although interesting.

As to a "Battleground" scenario, what's the fight, as the "cold" air isn't THAT cold, as proven today. Unless some real cold air digs in in front of Friday's encroaching fluid, I'm still there with it being a rain event.Suggested shifts, tweaks and minor adjustments for today's scenario, still tell me we need the colder air in place before the Pest arrives.

Disagree

We will have cold uppers by then, If the angle of attack is right, it's game on.

If we keep seeing this shown in models tomorrow and Wednesday, it's well and truly game on IMO

I am very much looking forward to the Fax update

Edited January 14, 2013 by karlos1983

[latitude]

It doesn't have to be too cold though, as just posted in the MOD thread, the uppers don't even have to be that cold, e.g. Feb 1978 produced loads of snow for the SW, even to coastal areas, but look at the uppers:

http://forum.netweat...ttach_id=153886

That chart is for Thursday morning, according to the GFS there isnt any PPN about, but it probably shows a warmer sector.

What im getting at is, we are supposed to be in a cold period, and in the SW it isnt that cold. The chart was just an example. This cold spell was supposed to of started last Saturday, by Thursday with all the charts and hype that has been posted on this forum I would of imagined -4 or -5 IMBY. Anyway, again just my opinion and thoughts.

That's based solely on the GFS. All other models show it colder. Plus this from Ian;

ARPEGE evolution and 850's support UKMO-GM almost exactly up to 00z Fri. Colder air somewhat further west compared to GFS.

Hopefully Friday then, due to the undercut on UKMO we get some coder air, especially for those in Devon and Cornwall to see some white stuff.

[Frosty_wsm]

My last post talked about the temperatures in the SW, I found this chart for Thursday at 7.00am. Its not even that cold in the SW.

Your forgetting about the south easterly wind that will accompany the precipitation, very cold surface temps and dp's over in the near continent and hence bucket loads of snow!

[wallopweather]

Does anyone think that the potential band of snow on Friday could reach as far east as Newbury?

Thought you had snow today? was gutted to see snow at the M4 / A34 interchange knowing that was only 20 mins drive away but I had to go West

[numbnutts]

My snowman disappeared 5 years ago to go shopping at John Lewis`s Havent seen him since.

I HAVE LOL

[A.J]

Does anyone think that the potential band of snow on Friday could reach as far east as Newbury?

too early to tell....if (and it's a big if) 12z suite verify, then it will reach Newbury friday night into saturday giving substantial snowfall

[Schmalex]

Thought you had snow today? was gutted to see snow at the M4 / A34 interchange knowing that was only 20 mins drive away but I had to go West

We had about 3/4" lying snow this morning. It was lovely to have, but disappeared very quickly, with rain setting in by about 1000. I drove to the office in Guildford, where there was barely any.

[latitude]

Your forgetting about the south easterly wind that will accompany the precipitation, very cold surface temps and dp's over in the near continent and hence bucket loads of snow!

Again, thats Thursday at 7.00, no PPN forecast then, not until Friday at 3.00am (GFS). Nearly 24 hrs later.

GFS Temps for above pic.....not exactly cold is it? Thats showing the MINIMUM temp.

This could be why Ian F wasnt sure about settling snow.

Edited January 14, 2013 by latitude

[Snow shut work]

Does anyone think that the potential band of snow on Friday could reach as far east as Newbury?

No, too far east.

[karlos1983]

Again, thats Thursday at 7.00, no PPN forecast then, not until Friday at 3.00am (GFS). Nearly 24 hrs later.

GFS Temps for above pic.....not exactly cold is it? Thats showing the MINIMUM temp.

This could be why Ian F wasnt sure about settling snow.

Click through the next few frames and see it evolve then!