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South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z onwards

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Proper mixed bag of spanners here.

FREEZING RAIN in ireland.

post-182-0-41029900-1358183350_thumb.png

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Timer Apprentice

Timer

Posted
  • Location: Colyton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Old Fashioned Traditional Seasons
  • Location: Colyton, Devon
Posted

The crop of showers at present in the west midlands look likely to head into central southern areas soon.

They are now showing green on radar (snow/rain) whereas before they were just rain. With temperatures

here falling markedly now (+1.6C) we could see a bit more snow

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-uksnow- Explorer

-uksnow-

Posted
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
Posted

Snow showers tonight as mentioned coming from small-scale baroclinic feature(s) running SSE across Wales down into W Country.... WBFL associated with this circa 400m but we expect some settling anywhere 200m+ beneath these. Good support in 4km modelling.

Ian, you say this are running SSE - Should they then be expected to get into the east of the region such as hampshire and dorset?

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted

I can confirm snow again already I thought it was too early but no, so is it now game on again?!

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offerman Seasoned

offerman

Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
Posted

Two have just released a new chart viewer and seems much easier to use or access (Less clicks than the rest, i will be trying it and see how it goes.)

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

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dec10snow Aficionado

dec10snow

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

There's snow as well nitpicker. I take the good news where I can see it. tongue.pngbiggrin.png It clearly says snow for me from 3pm - 9pm. Nothing is falling as yet but it will, the Welsh just need to stop being greedy and blow it across.

I think it's because there's a snow warning in the south west, if you take a look at the warnings page, no such luck :(

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noggin Aficionado

noggin

Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
Posted (edited)

Fridays event will get downgraded it happend to todays event within a few hours its to far away to get excited about.

I couldn't agree more.

At one point last week, it was suggested that we might be needing snowmobiles to get to work today..........look how today ended up.

I will believe it when I see it.

I want it to happen, though.......... getting a bit peed off with all the downgrades.

Edited by noggin
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Erbyskerby Rookie

Erbyskerby

Posted
  • Location: Constantine Bay, Cornwall
  • Location: Constantine Bay, Cornwall
Posted

Raining here (near Padstow, Cornwall) wind has got up and in the last few minutes..... Sleet.

Oooh how exciting - might be as close as I get to wintriness - seeing as I'm only a spit and a kick away from the sea.

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-uksnow- Explorer

-uksnow-

Posted
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
Posted

I couldn't agree more.

At one point last week, it was suggested that we might be needing snowmobiles to get to work today..........look how today ended up.

I will believe it when I see it.

I want it to happen, though.......... getting a bit peed off with al the downgrades.

Thing is, we need to remember that we after all do live in Britain, not Canada or Scandinavia and with the recent SSW every model is having an extremely hard time of it at the moment so we are likely to see some extremely cold outputs in the operationals as each model comes to agreement with the other, and small mesoscale differences that can occur as the event is occuring such as an LP sliding 100 miles east or west un expectedly often leave people without the -50 and 10ft blizzards they are after.

End of the week looks interesting for us, nothing set in stone yet though.

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

I couldn't agree more.

At one point last week, it was suggested that we might be needing snowmobiles to get to work today..........look how today ended up.

I will believe it when I see it.

I want it to happen, though.......... getting a bit peed off with all the downgrades.

Ah, but I suppose the point of all our model following trauma, is to not look at specific events that are always subject to change. Study the trends with like for like (various 12z output being strongly advised here) runs. The precipitation events at such ranges will always be difficult to predict. I would only call something more or less certain once it is at <t+3 hours when it comes to snowfall dynamics and no, I am not joking.

Looking at trends at longer-range are still interesting though, as can be said by Friday's event, more especially as the MetO have also been looking at such things for three days now.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

Raining here (near Padstow, Cornwall) wind has got up and in the last few minutes..... Sleet.

Oooh how exciting - might be as close as I get to wintriness - seeing as I'm only a spit and a kick away from the sea.

Blimey, that is impressive for Padstow, I know it well.

You should start to get even more excited, if the harbour were to freeze over once again. Just shows what can be delivered down in that neck of the woods, but it does take some very special synoptics.

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Erm

12_132_mslp850.png

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

Temperature is currently 2.5c and dp is -1c so another hour or so and I'll be happy to see shower activity if it happens search.gif

Meto warning is in place accross west somerset missing us in north and east somerset and bristol wallbash.gif

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Erm

12_132_mslp850.png

Yes, it could well be just like that by then, it has to be said. However, I can't help thinking that is the only ugly mild chart in the next ten days. rofl.gif

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Erbyskerby Rookie

Erbyskerby

Posted
  • Location: Constantine Bay, Cornwall
  • Location: Constantine Bay, Cornwall
Posted

Blimey, that is impressive for Padstow, I know it well.

You should start to get even more excited, if the harbour were to freeze over once again. Just shows what can be delivered down in that neck of the woods, but it does take some very special synoptics.

Haha - it lasted nanoseconds but was sleet nonetheless (I'm easily pleased!)

Yes, rare for the harbour to freeze - it wasn't forecast when it did freeze - many holiday homes got caught with burst pipes etc. Really was exceptional and short-lived.

That is why you can never be 100% sure of anything when it comes to weather - microclimates in various places can throw up some fascinating anomalies. Just got to hold tight and see what happens I guess.

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Please explain?

See my explanation above, jessandjon.

It is called strawclutching I think, then again, we are all pretty much doing that, but at least we are talking about the reliable timeframe. good.gif

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Erm

12_132_mslp850.png

Yep, that's the favourable trend currently.

Also ties in with GP's latest thoughts on the MOD thread. Still, if Friday is ages away, Sunday is even further.

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

Yep, that's the favourable trend currently.

Also ties in with GP's latest thoughts on the MOD thread. Still, if Friday is ages away, Sunday is even further.

AWD, speaking of which, what does the latest ECM or MetO output suggest for the weekend, albeit it is at >t+120.

Any ideas AWD or are they yet to roll out?

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

Yep, that's the favourable trend currently.

Also ties in with GP's latest thoughts on the MOD thread. Still, if Friday is ages away, Sunday is even further.

drinks.gif And as you stressed earlier, if Friday develops into a different scenario then IGNORE the weekend's events for now.

Do not fear such things at this timescale peeps. good.gif

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

AWD, speaking of which, what does the latest ECM or MetO output suggest for the weekend, albeit it is at >t+120.

Any ideas AWD or are they yet to roll out?

ECM isn't out yet and UKMO only goes to Sunday so its hard to call on last chart, although it does look like bringing in a less cold air source too.

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katemart Enthusiast

katemart

Posted
  • Location: Southampton, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, hot, hot! Or cold, cold, cold!
  • Location: Southampton, UK
Posted

Local outlook states 40% chance of snow tonight imby. Temp 3.6C (3.0 with windchill), DP 1.5C.

Darren Betts on BBCNews24 was talking about a battleground scenario on Thursday - presumably he means evening/night?

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