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South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z onwards

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Yep ECM after lots of snow on Friday, keeps the cold for Saturday, before Sunday the mild air really sweeps in.

Sounds ideal to me as that would give Friday and Saturday to play in the snow.

Currently under a heafty sleet, wet snow shower ATM.

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tomhow Newbie

tomhow

Posted
  • Location: Curdridge, Hants.
  • Weather Preferences: Clear Skies
  • Location: Curdridge, Hants.
Posted

Just east of Southampton and about 6 miles in land and the rain is staying firmly as rain. Fast moving clump just run down from the NW and anywhere south of winch looks to be staying as rain. This sorta makes sense as according to the 12z GFS the 528dam line is only going to reach southampton at 18z i.e. now.

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Just east of Southampton and about 6 miles in land and the rain is staying firmly as rain. Fast moving clump just run down from the NW and anywhere south of winch looks to be staying as rain. This sorta makes sense as according to the 12z GFS the 528dam line is only going to reach southampton at 18z i.e. now.

And a far few miles North of Winchester in Newbury too, I might add. acute.gif

Having said that, it was pretty heavy stuff with a wet flakes thrown in.

Whilst I haven't heard anything to the contrary, I would strongly suggest that ICE WILL BE A PROBLEM come the morning guys n gals, so take extreme care. help.gif Might even be a cover of snow on top of it for a few too.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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tomhow Newbie

tomhow

Posted
  • Location: Curdridge, Hants.
  • Weather Preferences: Clear Skies
  • Location: Curdridge, Hants.
Posted

Whilst I haven't heard anything to the contrary, I would strongly suggest that ICE WILL BE A PROBLEM come the morning guys n gals, so take extreme care. help.gif Might even be a cover of snow on top of it for a few too.

I'm guessing the ice is going to be strongly dependent on the cloud cover - if the cloud breaks then lots of ice - otherwise not sure - especially with a stiff breeze

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Dean E Community Regular

Dean E

Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
Posted

And a far few miles North of Winchester in Newbury too, I might add. acute.gif

Having said that, it was pretty heavy stuff with a wet flakes thrown in.

Whilst I haven't heard anything to the contrary, I would strongly suggest that ICE WILL BE A PROBLEM come the morning guys n gals, so take extreme care. help.gif Might even be a cover of snow on top of it for a few too.

Just having those showers right now, just had some hail!

Temp: 3.0c DP: 0.9c

SM

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Yep ECM after lots of snow on Friday, keeps the cold for Saturday, before Sunday the mild air really sweeps in.

Sounds ideal to me as that would give Friday and Saturday to play in the snow.

Currently under a heafty sleet, wet snow shower ATM.

As a selfish POV, I have plans at the weekend so I'm not too fussed about prolonged snowcover, just some heavy falling snow will do me.

Anyhow, a long way to go still, but all 3 models show cold air until Saturday, with potentially significant snow on Friday, some keeping it until Saturday.

Will leave you all in peace now. :p

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

And a far few miles North of Winchester in Newbury too, I might add. acute.gif

Having said that, it was pretty heavy stuff with a wet flakes thrown in.

Whilst I haven't heard anything to the contrary, I would strongly suggest that ICE WILL BE A PROBLEM come the morning guys n gals, so take extreme care. help.gif Might even be a cover of snow on top of it for a few too.

Indeed, ice could be a real issue. Still not sure about fri sat at the moment. Get the feeling the sea might modify the air to the wrong side but here hoping I am wrong. However I am very optimistic for the last week of the month and in to feb. north east attack which would be better with no marginal temps to worry about.

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted (edited)

Ian F "uncertainty on Friday but could be a corker!"

Snow showing but still used the "uncertainty" word.

Points West forecast.

Edited by Bristle boy
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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
Posted

Ian F on Points West Weather - Keep an eye on Friday because it COULD be quite a corker! :-)

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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted

Ian F - Friday could be "quite a corker!" - read into that what you will :)

lol - everyone on here was probably watching that

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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
Posted

Ian F - Friday could be "quite a corker!" - read into that what you will smile.png

lol - everyone on here was probably watching that

Sure were!

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Haven't seen Ian's forecast, but if today's 12z model suite verify then Sports Direct will do brisk business as punters who can't afford snow shoes buy up their Tennis racket supplies!

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tomhow Newbie

tomhow

Posted
  • Location: Curdridge, Hants.
  • Weather Preferences: Clear Skies
  • Location: Curdridge, Hants.
Posted

Indeed, ice could be a real issue. Still not sure about fri sat at the moment. Get the feeling the sea might modify the air to the wrong side but here hoping I am wrong. However I am very optimistic for the last week of the month and in to feb. north east attack which would be better with no marginal temps to worry about.

I'm also slightly skeptical about friday morning - whilst the cold uppers are there, the predicted thickness values are less favorable. Whilst snow is always outrageously hard to predict, I think should be somewhat more uncertainty than the present consensus. It's also quite a long way off for predicting big dumpings of snow. Time and again I've seen models predict a pasting several days in advance only to see the pattern collapse less then 12 hours out.

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Sainsbo Aficionado

Sainsbo

Posted
Posted

I don't want to get too happy for Friday, when it could possibly change - Maybe for the better, or for the worse, but I must say, I am very exited at the possibility. Let's just hope that the cold air sticks around for a few days atleast after so we can enjoy it! (if we get it)

Current temp 2.2C

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Ian F - Friday could be "quite a corker!" - read into that what you will smile.png

lol - everyone on here was probably watching that

Sure were!

I wish i was! No offense to the South Today's presenters but Ian's are so much better from the clips i've seen. lol

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted

I'm also slightly skeptical about friday morning - whilst the cold uppers are there, the predicted thickness values are less favorable. Whilst snow is always outrageously hard to predict, I think should be somewhat more uncertainty than the present consensus. It's also quite a long way off for predicting big dumpings of snow. Time and again I've seen models predict a pasting several days in advance only to see the pattern collapse less then 12 hours out.

It's only the usual suspects in the Mod Disc thread who are "predicting big dumpings of snow" - i tend to skip through their posts most of the time.

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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted

I'm also slightly skeptical about friday morning - whilst the cold uppers are there, the predicted thickness values are less favorable. Whilst snow is always outrageously hard to predict, I think should be somewhat more uncertainty than the present consensus. It's also quite a long way off for predicting big dumpings of snow. Time and again I've seen models predict a pasting several days in advance only to see the pattern collapse less then 12 hours out.

Totally agree - but with little else in the offing for the near term, I'm hanging on that one for some excitement! The 3 big models are generally agreeing with the general pattern. Positions of the low out in the Atlantic and the strength of the Scandi block change subtly from model to model and run to run but the general theme seems to be there. We're only 96-120 out now so I'm game on for a ramp :)

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Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

Anyone else notice the streamer developing in north west Wales and moving in our direction, could be alot of, something lol, falling in some parts of the west country later if that lot holds together.

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Fred Sykes Contributor

Fred Sykes

Posted
  • Location: Warminster (Wiltshire)
  • Weather Preferences: what's the bloody point when you live in Britain
  • Location: Warminster (Wiltshire)
Posted

But Ian F also forecast a chance of snow for the weekend last week and said "It could be quite bothersome". But we didn't get any snow!!

It really is pointless commenting on possible snow chances for Friday, when its only MONDAY today!!!

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Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

But Ian F also forecast a chance of snow for the weekend last week and said "It could be quite bothersome". But we didn't get any snow!!

It really is pointless commenting on possible snow chances for Friday, when its only MONDAY today!!!

Totally different kettle of fish entirely, that's a huge Atlantic attack at the end of the week, not the little shortwave that turned out to be not much at all for us last night.

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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted (edited)

Well if the Met Office are talking about the *Possibility* then I don't know what else we'd talk about in a forum like this? Don't get me wrong I'm half expecting this to go TEITS up but until the model output changes dramatically away from the *possibility* we're all going to be keeping an eye on this.

Edited by kumquat
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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Streamer looks like its heading for east Somerset and then dorset.

Re Friday we do have model agreement and have done for several runs now, however I would like to see it in t72 before ally giving it much though, then t48 before I go into expectant mode. However nice to see its still there and still the best possibility we have atm

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