South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z onwards

[quantock girl]

There's a warning for West Somerset - what for?? Rain and wind...'cause that's what happening outside.

(Love Padstow too by the way)

And, while I sound like I am having a moan, why do the main BBC forecasters insist on dithering over SE graphics while covering SW with their arm/hand/sleeve - it's impossible to see what is going on, hopefully the white blob on Friday/Saturday will be so MASSIVE nothing will obliterate it.

[AWD]

And as you stressed earlier, if Friday develops into a different scenario then IGNORE the weekend's events for now.

Do not fear such things at this timescale peeps.

Agree. Lynxus and others are right to urge caution. It's very knife edge currently.

However, just like I wouldn't recommend getting too excited, I would advise not to be too despondent either. YET.

[gottolovethisweather]

Sleety rain to report here in Newbury, making a noise as it hits the windows, just like hail.

[Sainsbo]

On and off sleety rain here. Temp is 2.5C.

[AWD]

From Ian Fergusson;

ARPEGE evolution and 850's support UKMO-GM almost exactly up to 00z Fri. Colder air somewhat further west compared to GFS.

GFS a little too mild this week for us. Also shown by NAE & NMM.

[Blizzardof82]

There's a warning for West Somerset - what for?? Rain and wind...'cause that's what happening outside.

(Love Padstow too by the way)

And, while I sound like I am having a moan, why do the main BBC forecasters insist on dithering over SE graphics while covering SW with their arm/hand/sleeve - it's impossible to see what is going on, hopefully the white blob on Friday/Saturday will be so MASSIVE nothing will obliterate it.

That infuriates me as well, get your bloody arm out the way I want to see graphics for Bristol.

[Lynxus]

Am I the only one who seems to think that -2 to 5c isnt "cold" or "Big freeze" or "in the freezer" or "Freezemeggedon" etc etc. ?

I don't mean to be downbeat but some people really do seem to be looking at these models in the MOD thread and reading them as the next ICE age.... When they clearly show a bit of a easterly ( not even a strong one ) and some pretty average temps for this time of year ( If not a bit mild for this time of year )

[Iceberg]

Met office forecast for Friday is extreme for me, snow from 6am to midnight, winds of 20mph gusts to over 30mph. Feel like figure around -8c and temps for the day between -2 and 0. 0 being the highest it gets to at midday.

Nothing marginal about that.

[dec10snow]

And, while I sound like I am having a moan, why do the main BBC forecasters insist on dithering over SE graphics while covering SW with their arm/hand/sleeve - it's impossible to see what is going on, hopefully the white blob on Friday/Saturday will be so MASSIVE nothing will obliterate it.

So true! They just carry on... As you can see, lots of snow over here in the south east *covers the whole of the southwest with their hand or arm* could cause some disruption... Yeah, snowy in the southwest aswell.... Moving on!

Maybe I'm exaggerating slightly

Edited January 14, 2013 by dec10snow

[AWD]

ECM also brings snow away from Cornwall.

Atlantic air would return on Saturday as per the GFS however

[Lynxus]

Met office forecast for Friday is extreme for me, snow from 6am to midnight, winds of 20mph gusts to over 30mph. Feel like figure around -8c and temps for the day between -2 and 0. 0 being the highest it gets to at midday.

Nothing marginal about that.

Wow what a difference it makes being a little bit more east and being further north ( Who would of thought being north was bad hahaha )

Metoffice going for:

1c here ( Feels like -5 )

~11 mph SE wind..

Gusts of 28mph.

Grey, No rain, No snow, No drizzle, Just a light grey cloud all day.

LOL

[gottolovethisweather]

From Ian Fergusson;

ARPEGE evolution and 850's support UKMO-GM almost exactly up to 00z Fri. Colder air somewhat further west compared to GFS.

GFS a little too mild this week for us. Also shown by NAE & NMM.

Thanks, great info there.

What this also shows is how the GFS almost always wants to default to zonal. Of course, in reality the atlantic will return at some point, but the timeframe suggested by the GFS gets delayed one day to the next. The trend is better determined when looking at one run in isolation as many folk will know including yourself.

Edited January 14, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Nights King]

Met office forecast for Friday is extreme for me, snow from 6am to midnight, winds of 20mph gusts to over 30mph. Feel like figure around -8c and temps for the day between -2 and 0. 0 being the highest it gets to at midday.

Nothing marginal about that.

Is that your local forecast on website or latest model output? I have only got light snow for a couple of hours forecast currently.

[Sainsbo]

Am I the only one who seems to think that -2 to 5c isnt "cold" or "Big freeze" or "in the freezer" or "Freezemeggedon" etc etc. ?

I don't mean to be downbeat but some people really do seem to be looking at these models in the MOD thread and reading them as the next ICE age.... When they clearly show a bit of a easterly ( not even a strong one ) and some pretty average temps for this time of year ( If not a bit mild for this time of year )

I can understand your point, but the places predicted temperatures of around 5C are in the extreme SouthWest. There are some places that may well see ice days from Tomorrow through Thursday, I guess it all depends on location and elevation. Here in Swindon, the high for the next few days is 1C, with 0C for Thursday. That does seem quite extreme, and not to mention we could see minus double figures in some rural spots on Wednesday night.

[jessandjon]

Met office advertising sleet for Torpoint on Friday?

[Lynxus]

I can understand your point, but the places predicted temperatures of around 5C are in the extreme SouthWest. There are some places that may well see ice days from Tomorrow through Thursday, I guess it all depends on location and elevation. Here in Swindon, the high for the next few days is 1C, with 0C for Thursday. That does seem quite extreme, and not to mention we could see minus double figures in some rural spots on Wednesday night.

Hmm. to me 1c or even a max of 0c doesn't seem extreme..

I dont know why..

If a max was -2 then maybe thats good. but its winter.. When people look at 0c in the daytime as extreme, it just seems odd.

[Iceberg]

Is that your local forecast on website or latest model output? I have only got light snow for a couple of hours forecast currently.

That's my website local forecast for friday

[gottolovethisweather]

Am I the only one who seems to think that -2 to 5c isnt "cold" or "Big freeze" or "in the freezer" or "Freezemeggedon" etc etc. ?

I don't mean to be downbeat but some people really do seem to be looking at these models in the MOD thread and reading them as the next ICE age.... When they clearly show a bit of a easterly ( not even a strong one ) and some pretty average temps for this time of year ( If not a bit mild for this time of year )

Yes I suppose it is all relative I guess. However, the average Max for January is around about 8c I believe, for Central England, so we are clearly below such temps by day. What we really need I guess, is a stronger flow from the North or East and the Azores High to bugger right off. Nevertheless, beggars can't be choosers and considering I have had four double-digit Maxes in January so far, the 3c to 5c I have achieved in recent days is very welcome indeed. It does depend what each one of us wants from the generally maritime climate of our little island.

Edited January 14, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Actually, may have jumped the gun slightly in my last post. ECM still has cold air and possible snowfall over northern counties of our region on Saturday.

Apologies for being too hasty.

[cerneman]

Light rain and wind picking up at moment

[gottolovethisweather]

ECM also brings snow away from Cornwall.

Atlantic air would return on Saturday as per the GFS however

Hmmmm. Could be the two-three day blip coming up as suggested by the following.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=10day;sess=

That has also been fairly consistent it has to be said.

Anyway, bugger that, its only Monday so who cares.

[Frosty_wsm]

Actually, may have jumped the gun slightly in my last post. ECM still has cold air and possible snowfall over northern counties of our region on Saturday.

Apologies for being too hasty.

Like I said earlier, don't be at all surprised to see shifts further south with the lp on Friday, the further south the better.

[kumquat]

ppn turning to snow over mid-wales according to netweather radar.

[Wilxy]

Actually, may have jumped the gun slightly in my last post. ECM still has cold air and possible snowfall over northern counties of our region on Saturday.

Apologies for being too hasty.

I can't see it happening just becoming too marginal now?

atlantic wants to fight back and if thats the case the block could be under lots of pressure.

[dec10snow]

Actually, may have jumped the gun slightly in my last post. ECM still has cold air and possible snowfall over northern counties of our region on Saturday.

Apologies for being too hasty.

No problems as was said on the mod thread a while ago, three days ago, the models were showing a breakdown to milder conditions on Wednesday, three days on, and the models are predicting a breakdown three days later than that!