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South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z onwards

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Can someone please pass me some straws? I need someone thing clutch :)

I honestly , would love to believe these models, but when they show a very touch and go situation even this far out. It worry's me considering "Nailed on" events also come to not much 90% of the time.

Please be the good 10%

Nothing is nailed on in terms of the weather, anybody posting its nailed are ones to ignore.

We have potential, and that's all we can have at this stage. There would be no potential under a mild SW flow.

Your right to urge caution, it could still all very easily go Pete tong.

Its just nice to see something to follow and look out for, its possible but not probable at this stage.

At least were in the game though,

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Yes thats the GFS though.

4 runs a day, different ouput from each run, the only model bar the ECM 32 day model that goes out such a long way into FI.

Can somebody please dig me out some FI charts showing mild and cold, I bet anybody will probably find both in there.

The GFS 12z is a good model for determing trends IMHO, especially when backed up by the MetO and ECM output.

The GEFS 12z ensembles rarely let me down when its to trends either.

We don't have fergieweathers output to hand, but I suggest his thoughts would be similar to that which has been dished out by the GFS 12z within the reliable.

*by the way I don't work for the GFS but I know what experience tells me over the years* help.gif

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted (edited)

Plenty of showers over Wales heading our way, snow possible in the heavy showers and as Ian says, settling above 200m.

Come on a quick early ground frost then some snow which would lay through the week in shaded areas with ice days... clapping.gif

I'll be home by half 5 to scan the radar and lamps mega_shok.gifrofl.gif

Hey did you know that if it wasn't for me being quite ill other week I would have been on my skiing holiday for this week... rolleyes.gif Now the weather is doing everything to deny me! rofl.gif

Edited by mullender83
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124alex Rookie

124alex

Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset
Posted

Come on a quick early ground frost then some snow which would lay through the week in shaded areas with ice days... clapping.gif

I'll be home by half 5 to scan the radar and lamps mega_shok.gifrofl.gif

whats your temp, dewpoint etc?

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Chul Apprentice

Chul

Posted
  • Location: Marchwood, Southampton
  • Location: Marchwood, Southampton
Posted

Hi, can anyone give an idea as to how things look for Southampton please, still learning the technical talk ;-) Thanks

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

UKMO says YES.

Regarding the GFS, this is the most progressive model and it still gives us 24 hours of snowfall/cover.

Might not be what everybody wants, but with the way this winter is going regarding snowfall, I'm more than happy with that.

Yep, although weeks of snow is amazing, all I ask for once every winter is for some overnight snowfall, I like to get up really early and take the dog out for a walk whilst the sun is rising before anyone else gets out and puts footprints all over the crisp, delicate, undisturbed beauty of freshly lying snow.

Later on we can have snowball fights, but that first morning is my favourite.

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

130118.png

someone posted this in the Mod thread?

can someone explain this?

Shows strong SE, with the cold front approaching (form of showers) any precipitation that fall would be snow.

Also with high pressure to the north, it shows the low undercutting, which would bring very cold easterlies.

Edited by Panayiotis
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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

whats your temp, dewpoint etc?

I won't know now until I get home at 5.30 ish but I'll let you know then. good.gif

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

Hi, can anyone give an idea as to how things look for Southampton please, still learning the technical talk ;-) Thanks

Not that great in terms of snow tbh in the short-term but the prospects are still there in the medium-range.

Welcome aboard and can you please update your profile to show your location in it please. good.gif

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

Plenty of showers over Wales heading our way, snow possible in the heavy showers and as Ian says, settling above 200m.

radar_zpse69312fa.png

What time will they be falling as snow again over 200m?

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❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ Aficionado

❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

Posted
  • Location: Wiltshire
  • Location: Wiltshire
Posted

Rain rain rain, was expecting it to be honest. Just that little bit to warm. All good, now looking forward to Friday, I'm sure lots of changes to come yet.

Not sure if that band of snow will make it that far into Hampshire on Friday, hey it might even not make it into the west at all. We she'll see what the next GFS will bring. All good fun. Be good once it gets into the NAE and NMM timeframe.

Feeling colder in my flat then it is outside. Maybe it has more chance of snow in my flat.

My bad.

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dancing daisy Contributor

dancing daisy

Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset
Posted

It's all looking exciting for later on IMBY, we even have a snow warning which we didn't have yesterday. Although my height isn't that great so I am expecting very little in my actual garden. :)

If you all don't mind I would rather concentrate my lack of knowledge on tonight and worry about tomorrow, tomorrow.

Everyone had a good day?

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Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

Wonder if the ECM will show more of an undercut on it's 12z, for the end of the week I'm looking more for the undercut then concentrating on how much snow there could be, a snow to rain event really doesn't float my boat, get that undercut and we could well stay in the cold air with no rain at all.

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124alex Rookie

124alex

Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset
Posted

It's all looking exciting for later on IMBY, we even have a snow warning which we didn't have yesterday. Although my height isn't that great so I am expecting very little in my actual garden. smile.png

If you all don't mind I would rather concentrate my lack of knowledge on tonight and worry about tomorrow, tomorrow.

Everyone had a good day?

what warning no warning on met office ....

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gloucesterlad Apprentice

gloucesterlad

Posted
  • Location: Gloucester - Quedgeley
  • Location: Gloucester - Quedgeley
Posted

Temp 4.6°C and dewpoint -0.2°C as at 5pm

Certainly lots of shower activity to the north west but probably need to be a few hundred feet up to see any real wintryness..

Still, its worth keeping the lamp post watch on rofl.gif

John in Gloucester (Quedgeley - low down)

p.s. Exciting times ahead though - especially back end of the week !

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dancing daisy Contributor

dancing daisy

Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset
Posted

oh yeah Ice not snow smile.png

There's snow as well nitpicker. I take the good news where I can see it. tongue.pngbiggrin.png It clearly says snow for me from 3pm - 9pm. Nothing is falling as yet but it will, the Welsh just need to stop being greedy and blow it across.

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

Fridays event will get downgraded it happend to todays event within a few hours its to far away to get excited about.

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