South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z onwards

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Hiya, is there any chance that somebody could post Ian's latest forecast for me please? I know snow is a complicated animal but Ian seems to have a better handle on it than most. Thanks

[Mat]

Spotlight weather said maybe some sleet on Friday :-( thought he was going to say snow!!!!

David Braine did mention snow also said concerned about that front moving in thursday friday

[divadee]

Hiya, is there any chance that somebody could post Ian's latest forecast for me please? I know snow is a complicated animal but Ian seems to have a better handle on it than most. Thanks

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/news/newsid_7760000/7760862.stm

[Ali1977]

Is Swindon likely to see any snow this evening before it freezes ?

[tomhow]

We're only 96-120 out now so I'm game on for a ramp

I think it will become much clearer after tomorrow night - it depends how much that feature that slides under us into france in the early hours of wednesday pushes back the easterly.

[chris55]

The weather will always be hard to predict, but you simply can not ignore charts at 4 days out, if we were looking at such synoptics at 200h then I'd agree with some of the posts above, but it's not ,its Friday!

Many of the 12zs show a pretty decent risk of snowfall for some in our region, in the broad synoptic pattern, and that is not to be dismissed All I can advise is for those reading the thread is to say that the overall set up is conducive to snowfall, but at 4 days things can and do change, so although as of the 12z's (along with a good few runs of the past days) the risk for snow is evident.

Whether it misses to the south, moves to far north, is to mild etc etc etc etc is open to change so don't "expec"t anything, just keep an eye on the models and see what transpires.

Although (imo) with a little luck some of us could be seeing the best snowfalls for a few years if things fall favourable.

JMA is another of tonights 12zs to join in

[dec10snow]

Hiya, is there any chance that somebody could post Ian's latest forecast for me please? I know snow is a complicated animal but Ian seems to have a better handle on it than most. Thanks

http://m.facebook.com/pointswest?id=102814153147070&refsrc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fpointswest&_rdr

Thank me later

Edit: divadee beat me to it!

Edited January 14, 2013 by dec10snow

[katemart]

Anyone else notice the streamer developing in north west Wales and moving in our direction, could be alot of, something lol, falling in some parts of the west country later if that lot holds together.

Indeed, yes. The Isle of Man Streamer? Unfortunately it's bluddy well warming up imby. 4.1C, DP 1.5C.

[Dave Kightley]

I wont be ramping until after Friday on the models are a done deal. It be gone atm by Sunday

[kumquat]

To be fair to Ian, he couldn't have done more to express the uncertainty at that range.

Edited January 14, 2013 by kumquat

[Staffordshire]

Looking good for you guys friday, you deserve it though! all the best!

Edited January 14, 2013 by Staffordshire

[Nights King]

Anyone else notice the streamer developing in north west Wales and moving in our direction, could be alot of, something lol, falling in some parts of the west country later if that lot holds together.

That streamer looks heavy and intense but quite narrow so its going to be luck who gets it...

[khodds]

Aaarrrggghhhh! I'm not sure whether to be excited or not.... Meant to be going to London on Friday to meet family I've never met before.... In some ways I'm glad that the snow - IF we get it - is coming in the early hours.. In other ways I'm gutted as I really want to meet my family. What a dilemma! Nightmare!

[Mini tiger]

But Ian F also forecast a chance of snow for the weekend last week and said "It could be quite bothersome". But we didn't get any snow!!

It really is pointless commenting on possible snow chances for Friday, when its only MONDAY today!!!

Im glad someone posted this. He said last week that saturday night would see some snow to the north of here up in Somerset. And possible Sunday.

He then mentioned bothersome snow for today. And we've had none. Its been rain showers this evening, so i feel a bit let down. Tonight he mentions more

troublesome snow on Friday. Are we going to see any snow between now and fridays snow storm ?

[khodds]

That streamer looks heavy and intense but quite narrow so its going to be luck who gets it...

Still to warm here for snow I think... 2.5c and DP 1c? Be nice though if it did..

[latitude]

4 runs a day, different ouput from each run, the only model bar the ECM 32 day model that goes out such a long way into FI.

Can somebody please dig me out some FI charts showing mild and cold, I bet anybody will probably find both in there.

The GFS 12z is a good model for determing trends IMHO, especially when backed up by the MetO and ECM output.

The GEFS 12z ensembles rarely let me down when its to trends either.

We don't have fergieweathers output to hand, but I suggest his thoughts would be similar to that which has been dished out by the GFS 12z within the reliable.

*by the way I don't work for the GFS but I know what experience tells me over the years*

Ian F says the UKMETO and ECM is preferd.

Also said that any snow on Friday might not stick/settle in places...

"Indeed it is. Will await analysis of 12z later this evening. Colleagues also cautioning about extent of any settling at low-levels later in week even if it occurs. But it's miles away for any certainty and for sure, any regional (let alone sub-regional) take on this isn't worth paper written on."

Its probably due to the temperatures just not being cold enough in the SW during this week up to Friday. Sometimes it better to have intrenched cold for a number of days before any snow arrives. Today reached 6.1 and think temps IMBY will be around 3 degrees tomorrow unitl Friday...it just dosent seem cold enough for proper settling snow. Only the slushy wet stuff that has been seen today. But thats just my view.

[Nights King]

Still to warm here for snow I think... 2.5c and DP 1c? Be nice though if it did..

its a couple of hours away yet and evaporative cooling could aid the lucky few lower down thats my current thoughts if it maintains intensity.

[dec10snow]

Looking good for you guys friday, you deserve it though! all the best! x

How kind thanks, would be nice to finally see some snow! Only saw it falling on one day last year in Feb, but even then it didn't settle... Last settling snow I've seen was in December 2010! Hence my username

[MR EXTREMES]

That streamer looks heavy and intense but quite narrow so its going to be luck who gets it...

its not cold enough for this to fall as snow here on the southcoast.

[SNOWYLAD]

Hello, my first post so please be nice to me!

I think the problem with the current cold spell is that the charts at more than 4-5 days out are producing lots of eye candy which the forecasters are leaping on and ramping up the situation. I can only really remember once or twice in the last 15 years that an Atlantic low has brought snow to the west country. And is this cold snap as 'serious' as the media are making out? In my mind temperatures down to -4 or -5 overnight should be standard winter fare and should produce some nice clear sunny days.

[Staffordshire]

How kind thanks, would be nice to finally see some snow! Only saw it falling on one day last year in Feb, but even then it didn't settle... Last settling snow I've seen was in December 2010! Hence my username

didnt mean that kiss haha! but yeah good luck, synoptics looking good

[latitude]

My last post talked about the temperatures in the SW, I found this chart for Thursday at 7.00am. Its not even that cold in the SW.

Edited January 14, 2013 by latitude

[BARRY]

didn't see any snow last year, had snow the year before but that is the only time this century

[theprophecyman]

Im glad someone posted this. He said last week that saturday night would see some snow to the north of here up in Somerset. And possible Sunday.

He then mentioned bothersome snow for today. And we've had none. Its been rain showers this evening, so i feel a bit let down. Tonight he mentions more

troublesome snow on Friday. Are we going to see any snow between now and fridays snow storm ?

Ian F can only present on what information the models give/show him, and he also mentioned a degree of uncertainty. Also as many people on the NW forums, snow is difficult to predict, no one can be 100% correct all of the time..... I'm looking forward to see how the models develop over the next few days... Should be interesting to say the least

[BARRY]

Hello, my first post so please be nice to me!

I think the problem with the current cold spell is that the charts at more than 4-5 days out are producing lots of eye candy which the forecasters are leaping on and ramping up the situation. I can only really remember once or twice in the last 15 years that an Atlantic low has brought snow to the west country. And is this cold snap as 'serious' as the media are making out? In my mind temperatures down to -4 or -5 overnight should be standard winter fare and should produce some nice clear sunny days.

Welcome to the mad house