Scotland Regional Discussion - January 14th 2013>

[Zenarcher]

Beautiful shot. Can I ask where you get those from? Are they available on the web?

From Nasa http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?area=eu

This image here is great high quality zoom in of Scotland http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=AERONET_Edinburgh.2013015.terra.250m.jpg

[Richard Taylor]

Some very cold temperatures across Alba @6pm

Aboyne -7.1C

Aviemore -6.1C

Dyce -5.7C

Lossiemouth -3.4C

Loch Glascarnoch -3.3C

You missed fort SS.

-4.5 C and headin doon quick.

and Inbhir Nis

-4'C, cold start to the evening!

Braemar at -8.2C. Not to mention Fort SS and Inbhir Nis!

It's a race to the bottom!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

From Nasa http://lance-modis.e...ubsets/?area=eu

This image here is great high quality zoom in of Scotland http://lance-modis.e....terra.250m.jpg

I see the Black Isle is snow free.

Edited January 15, 2013 by scottish skier

[Snowlover2]

I see the Black Isle is snow free.

And a fair bit of fife. Nae snaw here.

[Allyw12]

was the ECM ok tonight too scared to go into the MT

[A Winter's Tale]

ECM 12z looks good for Scotland.

Excellent. It wasn't long ago that there was a consensus for this particular cold spell to end during this week but now next week is looking good. We are now in very interesting times.

[Blizzardo]

was the ECM ok tonight too scared to go into the MT

It was very good. It's getting closer to what could end up a memorable spell of weather.

[M1245]

A few posts on the MT sating that east Scotland will miss out on the snow this weekend.

[A Winter's Tale]

And in other news. -9.8C at Braemar @7pm

[TinyTim]

Well... another day, another "No Snow"

That wonderful satelite image shows that we here in Perth have been pretty unlucky so far... and as mentioned above our bad luck could possibly continue... if we don't get at least one decent snowfall before the end of this cold snap it won't be just toys being launched, it'll be the whole pram

Tim

Edited January 15, 2013 by TinyTim

[blitzen]

I'm now getting VERY confused re this approaching low at the weekend...HELP please. If, as some are hoping for on the MOT this travels further south, would that then exclude areas further NE as in us in Scotland, and take us out of the equasion snow-wise? The low appears to be travelling in much the same direction as it was this morning when posters were then saying that the north would benefit the most. Now however it appears to be the Midlands? If we hang on to our cold uppers, as appears to be the case, would this not act kind of like a brick wall and stop the snow moving towards us? Have I obviously got something wrong here and missing something? OR, is this southern preference as IMBY?

Edited January 15, 2013 by Blitzen

[mistyqueen]

I see the Black Isle is snow free.

Likewise Skye, except for the mountains!

[Buriedundersnow]

A few posts on the MT sating that east Scotland will miss out on the snow this weekend.

wouldnt read too much into that this far out ppn charts arent gospel at this range and u dont know what ppn charts they are talking about might only be one model but this far out nobody can say who will get snow or not

EDIT: more than likely thety are using the GFS ppn charts and u have to remember GFS runs 4 times a day and is always subject to changes but still only look at ppn charts 48hrs out or less for them to be anywhere near right

Edited January 15, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Kayemill]

wouldnt read too much into that this far out ppn charts arent gospel at this range and u dont know what ppn charts they are talking about might only be one model but this far out nobody can say who will get snow or not

EDIT: more than likely thety are using the GFS ppn charts and u have to remember GFS runs 4 times a day and is always subject to changes but still only look at ppn charts 48hrs out or less for them to be anywhere near right

It was if and Matt Hugo. Said fri east Scotland misses out and sat all Scotland misses out.

Still far enough out that it can change though.

[lorenzo]

Steve predicted the main front to pass SE and miss NE / Eastern Scotland, he also stated that this can adjust within an ever changing situation. Would bet on him being pretty close to the solution as he is genius at synoptics.

Further guidance on on the will it / won't it will be on the 96 hr Fax and Ian F usually updates the Model Thread after midnight with Meto de-brief of 12z runs. With charts like that ECM run pretty much anything falling from the sky will be snow or very close to it, plenty more cold to follow.

[Northernlights]

I'm now getting VERY confused re this approaching low at the weekend...HELP please. If, as some are hoping for on the MOT this travels further south, would that then exclude areas further NE as in us in Scotland, and take us out of the equasion snow-wise? The low appears to be travelling in much the same direction as it was this morning when posters were then saying that the north would benefit the most. Now however it appears to be the Midlands? If we hang on to our cold uppers, as appears to be the case, would this not act kind of like a brick wall and stop the snow moving towards us? Have I obviously got something wrong here and missing something? OR, is this southern preference as IMBY?

Will we not get some snow showers coming in off the North Sea in the very cold strong SE winds affecting the east coast?

[Buriedundersnow]

i really think there is something wrong with the GFS this was posted on the model thread and that is one strange looking ensemble chart

[Hiya]

You could almost feel the temperature nose diving about 5 to 6 this evening, could be some impressive lows this evening.

The science geek in me spotted something quite unusual in the gfs ensembles this evening, notice how the poor agreement in the very short term converges into good agreement after that. An unusual output from a chaotic system.

[applemint]

This is "news"!?

Facebook user Chris Clynes said: "We've had a snowball thrown through our slightly ajar backdoor and it knocked the fabric softener off the top of the tumble dryer." http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/jan/15/snow-shutdowns-warning-snowballing-icy

Hold the front page!

[doctormog]

In a way, strange as it sounds it may be OK if Scotland misses out on the front as it means the colder air stays in places and the milder stuff slips away to the south as the cold re-establishes itself? Having said that with a tightening of the isobars and the winds picking up parts of the east may pick up precipitation (whether that is snow or not would remain to be seen). One things for sure it is likely to feel Baltic, snow or not!

Very much a nowcasting situation IMO and each model run update will probably result in a tweak in n the forecasts and front locations. All to play for and cold, at least the the minute seems to win the majority of the battles against mild. Classic wintry weather? Well it has that potential but only time will tell. It is a fine line between classic and "oh dear"!

Keep watching over the next few days of developments would be my advice. Even if things looked perfect now they may not do in 12 hours.

[Buriedundersnow]

does the ECM have any ppn charts

[blitzen]

Will we not get some snow showers coming in off the North Sea in the very cold strong SE winds affecting the east coast?

Yes, I think you are right NL and I am sure I read that somewhere today also. Lorenzo has just quoted S. Murr as saying he thinks it will be a miss for us at the moment though. Just have to keep watching and waiting I suppose.

[NorthernRab]

I'm now getting VERY confused re this approaching low at the weekend...HELP please. If, as some are hoping for on the MOT this travels further south, would that then exclude areas further NE as in us in Scotland, and take us out of the equasion snow-wise? The low appears to be travelling in much the same direction as it was this morning when posters were then saying that the north would benefit the most. Now however it appears to be the Midlands? If we hang on to our cold uppers, as appears to be the case, would this not act kind of like a brick wall and stop the snow moving towards us? Have I obviously got something wrong here and missing something? OR, is this southern preference as IMBY?

Bear in mind though that almost all of Scotland is to the north-west of the UK.

For example, Inverness and Glasgow are further west than most of Wales, with Edinburgh equal to the West Midlands and even Aberdeen in the very far east the equivalent of the Midlands.

So as long as the snowfall in the west is fairly extensive, most of Scotland should be fine!

Edited January 15, 2013 by NorthernRab

[lorenzo]

Good to have you here Michael, disappointing re the track of frontal activity predicted, some stronger flow and more enticing solutions evident within the GFS Ensembles which we would I think do well out of over the weekend.

Look forward to LS deciphering the close range for us, not seen him on this afternoon so in case you miss this in the avalanche of this afternoon model thread, Ian F presented this link for meteograms, am sure you will have fun with it ! http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php

[Zenarcher]

does the ECM have any ppn charts

Yes http://www.wundergro...i=0&ls=0&rad2=0

Menu to the right scroll down find model data click on the settings button then select ECM and snowfall charts. Not easy to find and difficult to navigate about on that site.

What ECM says for Friday 12pm,

Edited January 15, 2013 by weathermaster