Scotland Regional Discussion - January 14th 2013>

[edo]

Do I detect a very small dose of TOORPing on here?

nae danger BFT i expect u to eject any toorpers with yer cutting wit

[cscrim]

no reason to hit he panic button, things have changed and will continue to do so. as LS suggested earlier we could afford Westward movement, as long as its not too much and still be in a good place. plenty to play for.

[LomondSnowstorm]

The NAE and GFS 18Z have not performed well in the last week, to say the least. The NAE in fact had the front reaching the west coast by Thursday midday just yesterday evening, showed that for two runs, gradually backed things west and now don't have the front getting this far east at all. I'd have a glancing look at the NMM and go to the MO's own website, where precipitation is based on UKV and MOGREPS (infinitely better than the NAE), along with the yrno site for the ECM high resolution stuff. We'll see where the front is placed on tomorrow's runs but I wouldn't worry about it yet.

[A Winter's Tale]

BBC Forecast - shows snow across southern and western Scotland and Friday - skips to Saturday and the band stretches along the eastern side of England and I'm glad to say Scotland aswell

[Buriedundersnow]

The NAE and GFS 18Z have not performed well in the last week, to say the least. The NAE in fact had the front reaching the west coast by Thursday midday just yesterday evening, showed that for two runs, gradually backed things west and now don't have the front getting this far east at all. I'd have a glancing look at the NMM and go to the MO's own website, where precipitation is based on UKV and MOGREPS (infinitely better than the NAE), along with the yrno site for the ECM high resolution stuff. We'll see where the front is placed on tomorrow's runs but I wouldn't worry about it yet.

is there any chance the NAE is run along with the GFS or something as it seems to have followed the GFS with its ppn forecasts

[Isolated Frost]

NAE and GFS are awful- wrong from initiation (see my post in far north regional)-

the BBC and METO know what they're doing.. wait for the GFS to track back to the big 3 (GEM, UKMO, EC)

[LomondSnowstorm]

is there any chance the NAE is run along with the GFS or something as it seems to have followed the GFS with its ppn forecasts

It isn't, bizarrely it's a met office run model but for some reason in the last week or so Ian has frequently referred to it being an outlier compared to the rest of the UKMO short range modelling. The Met Office has a huge high resolution ensemble system called MOGREPS and a very short range, high resolution model called the UKV, they do use the NAE sometimes but I think the fact that they release it to the public while keeping the other ones under wraps suggests it doesn't exactly have the highest value. It's not a terrible model, and sometimes it's better than the NMM, but there are much better models out there.

[BurntFishTrousers]

What are the Scottish Met Office saying about snow chances for Friday onwards?

Edited January 16, 2013 by BurntFishTrousers

[Buriedundersnow]

It isn't, bizarrely it's a met office run model but for some reason in the last week or so Ian has frequently referred to it being an outlier compared to the rest of the UKMO short range modelling. The Met Office has a huge high resolution ensemble system called MOGREPS and a very short range, high resolution model called the UKV, they do use the NAE sometimes but I think the fact that they release it to the public while keeping the other ones under wraps suggests it doesn't exactly have the highest value. It's not a terrible model, and sometimes it's better than the NMM, but there are much better models out there.

thanks for the reply and well explained cheers

[LomondSnowstorm]

What are the Scottish Met Office saying about snow chances for Friday onwards?

We're still using the 12Z data but stressing potential movement either eastwards or westwards, along with high risk of convection snowfall for the east coast Saturday onwards. Yellow warnings down the east coast for the foreseeable from early Saturday, Orange for an area of the southwest from Glasgow to Kintyre to Stranraer to Dumfries and back up for Friday 3am through to the evening, yellow for the Borders, far west, as far north as about Inverness and right to the east coast for the frontal stuff. At least that's what I would do

[mountain shadow]

BBC Forecast - shows snow across southern and western Scotland and Friday - skips to Saturday and the band stretches along the eastern side of England and I'm glad to say Scotland aswell

I think that forecast is already out of date. Tonights 18z GFS and 18z NAE plus the 12z GFS and 12z UKMET have stalled the front over eastern NI and Western Scotland.

Things may move more east again in the overnight runs but I don't see the snow reaching the East coast of Scotland.

[lorenzo]

GFS 18z - just bizarre how this model drops the ball sometimes. Here it is along with the rest, yes that is a Chinese model, didn't include the Brazilian as it looks like it is all over the shop on Meteociel between 00z and 12z.

GEM / NOGAPS / ECM

UKMO / GFS / CMA

Okay it had one ensemble 24 hrs later than the others with this..

Over to the 00z and mesoscale ones !

[applemint]

This is from the Batty boy on Twitter:

Latest forecast model run has held the front back west on Fri. Many miss the snow on current track. Could change again.

Latest forecast model run has held the front back west on Fri. Many miss the snow on current track. Could change again. pic.twitter.com/Us5X3ISa

— Sean Batty (@SeanBattySTV)

January 16, 2013

[moffatross]

GFS 18z - just bizarre how this model drops the ball sometimes. Here it is along with the rest, yes that is a Chinese model, didn't include the Brazilian as it looks like it is all over the shop on Meteociel between 00z and 12z.

...................

Over to the 00z and mesoscale ones !

Thanks lorenzo, that little collection really highlights just how much the GFS is going it alone in the mid-term. Hopefully it's wrong and its short-term solutions are just as gubbed and we'll see a return to the snow-fest on the morning's higher res models too.

[Polar Gael]

Models going t*ts belly up at this late stage? There's only one thing for it: we're gonnae need a bigger ramp!

[LomondSnowstorm]

This is from the Batty boy on Twitter:

Latest forecast model run has held the front back west on Fri. Many miss the snow on current track. Could change again.

https://twitter.com/...9/photo/1/large

I see he's quite the expert on using paint as well!

I know it's tough for those in the west who wouldn't do so well out of easterlies but I think it could easily show something along the lines of those Norwegian charts shown. I'd also add that it looks more realistic than the NAE as well - to just have such a strong temperature gradient with strong winds and low heights but without any kind of precipitation getting into the bulk of Scotland looks a bit odd to me.

At least uppers for the east would be pretty far from marginal though:

Edited January 16, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[A Winter's Tale]

For now I'll put my faith into the Met Office/BBC and for the models to fall in line with a more widespread snowfall for Scotland. Tomorrow should be a crucial day - will the Met and BBC backtrack or as IF says, will the GFS track back.

[gsteruk]

well the bbc website is now saying no snow for me in cumbernauld over the next 5 days at all. a few hours ago they had light snow for friday. not that im too worried, i can count the times on one hand the amount of times the bbc has been accurate for my area, even their nowcasting is dreadful - at least for me. but it seems to show the change in opinions thats swimming around just now. hope it wasnt a short lived period of excitement :-(

[Hairy Celt]

How do I pay income tax to Norway instead of Her Majesty's Grabbers & Deceivers? Kin Black Isle snawshield still fully inflated, need a proper NE flow to change that.

Just had a fun 30 mins reading through everyone's posts from this evening, lots of humour, analysis & links so thanks to all!

Edited January 17, 2013 by Hairy Celt

[A Winter's Tale]

Black line -eastern edge of front on GFS 18Z

Brown line - eastern edge of front on GFS 12Z

Pink ine -eastern edge of front on NAE

Blue line - western edge of front from BBC for Saturday

BBC have updated forecast - http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

Edited January 17, 2013 by A Winter's Tale

[Zenarcher]

What are the Scottish Met Office saying about snow chances for Friday onwards?

I think it's about time Scottish Met Office made their own model and I've put some things together to make this possible,

I give you SWM (Scottish Weather Model)

After collecting data from a few weather stations and sending two weather balloons into the sky for data although only one returned it was good enough to produce a forecast.

Some say the CMA (China model) is slow with it's output well it's nearly 3am but the SWM has just finished processing Friday's afternoon chart with amazing detail,

Expect the model to get big upgrades if the Scottish government wants to fund it.

[GraemeB]

Having just scanned the GFS, all I can say, is that there is going to be a monumental amount of Toy Chucking

today.

BBC already dropping the snow symbols until Sunday...if I was a betting man, I'd be lumping it all on a non-event day.

Where's me slap-heid smilie.

Edited January 17, 2013 by GraemeB

[mountain shadow]

The signs were there from the 12z graeme.

What amazes me is how poor The Met Office forecasters are. Clearly model led with no experience.

[GraemeB]

Interesting to note that none of the online BBC video forecasts have been updated since 2300 last night.

Not sure if this will work..

http://www.intellica...041,0179&zoom=4

To me - looking at it, the main front out in the Atlantic looks to be shuddering to a halt as it hits colder air...

[edit] - National bbc forecast on now, and a complete U Turn for Scotland for tomorrow, with only snow in the NE.

Edited January 17, 2013 by GraemeB

[mountain shadow]

Weather warning for snow has arrived.!!!