Scotland Regional Discussion - January 14th 2013>

[Allyw12]

Everything a bit further west on this run, still very good for western and central parts but we need to wait until the early hours of Saturday before the risk transfers east, with the showers and the occlusion starting to merge:

Noooooooooooo

[A Winter's Tale]

Glad to confirm that there was a light snow flurry about 30mins ago. A very cold and seasonal day too - current maximum of 1C at Glasgow airport. The met office warning covers quite a bit of Scotland and suggests accumilations widely 5-10cm. BBC Forecast looked good aswell and so does NAE snow/rain precip charts. I was impressed with the GFS 06z UK precipitation chart, the heaviest of the precip. is shown around Cowal and Dunbartonshire. This really needs to be closely followed as details will change closer to the time but I feel quite confident that Glasgow/west central lowlands could not only be looking at a snowfall but a significant event aswell. The further north and east, the greater the uncertainty on how far the band will reach these regions but I think a widespread Scottish frontal snowfall is still possible and if north eastern areas such as Aberdeenshire/Angus miss out, then perhaps the convective south easterly wind could make up for it. It's remarkable how the situation with the models and their outlook has evolved - at one stage it looked like the cold spell would be over by now, but day by day there has been a extension of the cold conditions which should prevail into at least the first part of next week and I wouldn't rule out this cold spell continuing well beyond next week, or a more significant period to follow. But even at short-time frames, there has been great variations and it's interesting to see how the synoptic situation for Saturday/Sunday has evolved from -5C uppers hanging into north eastern parts of the UK with a strong SSEly, to sub -5C uppers covering much of the British Isles with more of an easterly flow.

[Isolated Frost]

Scandi incoming....! From the Arctic to Aberdeen- classy show from the UKMO tonight- heavy snow showers from the E on this one, retrogressive heights building towards the Scandi-Iceland corridor (nearly as good as the Greenland-Iceland corridor!)

I think everywhere in Scotland has to be very happy with today's 12zs, namely because everywhere gets some snow... but the UKMO is something else, to have that at 96

[November13]

Yeh seems to be something bubbling in East Lothian. Hope to get a wee dusting as the radar has been quite random today!

[A Winter's Tale]

Without any doubt I prefer GFS 06z wrt Scottish snow on Friday.

[sn0wman]

Noooooooooooo

It's only one run. The extent of the precipitation will be changing a lot in future runs until around Thursday Night / Friday Morning, when the models should just about have sorted it out. Key things are:

• Very high risk of significant snow in Western Scotland through Friday, perhaps transferring further East into Saturday.
  
• Snow showers or longer spells of snow following on from the East after the front clears. Or perhaps, the front merging with snow showers.
  
• More attacks from the West after Friday's system undercuts, more significant snow possible.
  
• Cold possibly intensifying from the NE towards the end of the month.
  

[LomondSnowstorm]

Scandi incoming....! From the Arctic to Aberdeen- classy show from the UKMO tonight- heavy snow showers from the E on this one, retrogressive heights building towards the Scandi-Iceland corridor (nearly as good as the Greenland-Iceland corridor!)

I think everywhere in Scotland has to be very happy with today's 12zs, namely because everywhere gets some snow... but the UKMO is something else, to have that at 96

I believe uppers would be around -7C or -8C for the entire run with winds generally from the east:

Renewed cold pool coming in by +144:

Another very snowy run.

Without any doubt I prefer GFS 06z wrt Scottish snow on Friday.

On balance I do too, but in fairness the movement of the front was no more than about 30 miles, so it will chop and change in the coming days.

[Mesosphere]

Can see the stuff on the V6 radar, stepped outside and there's only snizzle. Heavier precip just a mile or two to my west

[gsteruk]

its good to see that central will finally see some action, beginning to feel a bit left out, not had a sign of anything interesting in what seems like ages! will central see some heavy action, or will it be a poor affair comparitively?

[edo]

Noooooooooooo

Dont worry Ally it is coming one way or another... see IF post above.... I know you wont relax till you see a few inches on the ground but patience grasshopper........ as Lorenzo said its nowcasting as nobody really knows where that low is hitting and 50 miles can make a world of difference so keep tuned too here and lets enjoy the weekend.....the way its looking we all will..... cant wait to see how many pages will have to trawl through here

rain today showing snow here 5pm to 6pm.... we will see as that would be a bonus

Edited January 16, 2013 by edodfc

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://www.yr.no/sted/Storbritannia/Skottland/Glasgow/

Hi-res Norwegian model progs the front slightly further east than the GFS, giving around 10cm over the course of Friday to Falkirk and up to 15cm for Glasgow, with snow showers into the east and northeast later on. Temperatures barely above 0C through the day, dewpoints would be well below 0C throughout.

[applemint]

Seems to be more snow on the Loch Morlich beach than on the hills:

http://www.winterhighland.info/cams/cairngorm-mountain/morlich.php

[Snooz]

Scandi incoming....! From the Arctic to Aberdeen- classy show from the UKMO tonight- heavy snow showers from the E on this one, retrogressive heights building towards the Scandi-Iceland corridor (nearly as good as the Greenland-Iceland corridor!)

I think everywhere in Scotland has to be very happy with today's 12zs, namely because everywhere gets some snow... but the UKMO is something else, to have that at 96

You little[big] beauty!.. that was one of your preferred evolutions LSS, no? - So knowledgeable kilties, is this the evolution the one that is worth the frontal not fully getting here (East) because the block holds and retrogresses above us, the no pain no gain one (pain wrt watching the South enjoying all their snow on Friday LOL!)

Am I right in thinking that this evolution is the one GP, Chiono et al have been hinting at before all the hype even started, i.e. LOOK NE, if the Scandi High & GH 'corridor' link up will that extend the cold spell by reversing the flow at this level.... or am I nae getting this still (likely!)

[LomondSnowstorm]

You little[big] beauty!.. that was one of your preferred evolutions LSS, no? - So knowledgeable kilties, is this the evolution the one that is worth the frontal not fully getting here (East) because the block holds and retrogresses above us, the no pain no gain one (pain wrt watching the South enjoying all their snow on Friday LOL!)

Am I right in thinking that this evolution is the one GP, Chiono et al have been hinting at before all the hype even started, i.e. LOOK NE, if the Scandi High & GH 'corridor' link up will that extend the cold spell by reversing the flow at this level.... or am I nae getting this still (likely!)

It was, this is like a February 1996 for the west combined with a bit of easterly magic further east.

This isn't quite the same as what GP and Chiono have hinted at but it looks like it would be the start of that evolution: there's only one way that PV fragment to the northeast can go and it isn't north!

One good thing about it being further west would be that coastal Ayrshire and Galloway along with Argyll and even the Hebrides would get a good pasting, which they probably haven't had in a while. Still, it could back a bit further east as well, I'd give it 24 hours before making hard and fast predictions about the eastern extent of the precipitation, bearing in mind over the last few days that most of the models have had precipitation too far west. Even if synoptically it's the same we could still scrape another 15-20 miles of precipitation to the east of where it's currently being modelled. Either way it looks pretty good for Friday evening onwards for the east.

[Zenarcher]

High res NMM model has just updated although it only goes up to 48 hours we can get to Friday 12pm,

Showing heavy snow for Western parts there.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I think we'd do rather well out of that.

[BleakMidwinter]

I was so new in 2010-11 that I didn't understand most of what I read* so can anyone tell me what the set-up was that led to Edinburgh's Snowmageddon then? I know the rest of the country got some snow, but it was the first really knee-deep weeks-long snow since the late 70s here, and I would love to know what it was, so I can compare that against the range of different set-ups being discussed at present!

*as opposed to now where on a good day I comprehend, ooh, sometimes as many as three in five words, especially if a lot of them are ones like 'and' or 'the'...

[aggy]

High res NMM model has just updated although it only goes up to 48 hours we can get to Friday 12pm,

Showing heavy snow for Western parts there.

Where do u get those maps

[lorenzo]

I think we'd do rather well out of that.

Ramptastic chart LS, a stunner from GEM..

[Zenarcher]

I think we'd do rather well out of that.

NAM appears to send the low in a similar way as the UKMO and GEM who knows

Where do u get those maps

From Net Weather Extra.

[Highland Snow]

absolutely 101 a lot of discussion about this last night and I favoured that solution until LS solution above.... i will have the stalled front followed by the easterly convection... cake and eat it

Im trying really hard not to ramp but its hard to see anything other than a very good winter spell where as ever some will do far better for snowfall but to be honest im happy with enough to let the kids sledge build a proper snowman and really stomp around in it..... 8 inches be fine

I think now no matter how it passes through it is going to head south east and drag easterly air in it is just a question of how potent the flow is.... LS explained this in perfect detail last night

Your challenge for this weekend Edo is to build an igloo for the children.

That will have them in a frenzy and ensure they remain snow lovers all their lives unlike my brood!

We will require photos of completed challenge!

Edited January 16, 2013 by Highland Snow

[101_North]

I was so new in 2010-11 that I didn't understand most of what I read* so can anyone tell me what the set-up was that led to Edinburgh's Snowmageddon then? I know the rest of the country got some snow, but it was the first really knee-deep weeks-long snow since the late 70s here, and I would love to know what it was, so I can compare that against the range of different set-ups being discussed at present!

*as opposed to now where on a good day I comprehend, ooh, sometimes as many as three in five words, especially if a lot of them are ones like 'and' or 'the'...

This might help a bit:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/dec2010/

I doubt I'll see anything like that again to be honest - 22" level depth in the garden!! Conditions were just perfect for the Lothians.

[Stormeh]

I will be travelling to work in East Kilbride at about 5.30pm on Friday, I wonder if I will make it or will I have to phone in and say I can't because of the snow? I also have a stock take to do on the Saturday so I hope I can't make that either

[BleakMidwinter]

Your challenge for this weekend Edo is to build an igloo for the children.

That will have them in a frenzy and ensure they remain slow lovers all their lives unlike my brood!

We will require photos of completed challenge!

Typo of the week contender?

[thebigyin]

http://www.yr.no/ste...ttland/Glasgow/

Hi-res Norwegian model progs the front slightly further east than the GFS, giving around 10cm over the course of Friday to Falkirk and up to 15cm for Glasgow, with snow showers into the east and northeast later on. Temperatures barely above 0C through the day, dewpoints would be well below 0C throughout.

Hi All

I am trying to work out if I should get IMBY excited or not, IYKFAM. Will east coast suffer too much mod from sea. That high res norwegian model e.g. has 4c here on Friday. Any ideas or stabs in the dark?! I know it is probabaly a difficult one to call.