Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013>

[DeepSnow]

Latest projections show a westward progression so you *might* be in luck.....

JK

I hope we keep the westward shift with no progression east!! Would be good if all of Wales could keep it an all snow event, so no one will miss out! Will have to see what its like tomorrow night I guess for any real answers and then Friday when it actually happens!

[DeepSnow]

Just taken from the model thread - this would be good as it keeps us all in Wales as snow?!

[Bonjangle]

Stalling over wales , looking very good .

[Frozone]

So much conflicting information!

[WalsallWeather]

Stalling over wales , looking very good .

Rain/Snow for me.. Which probably means sleet then!

Is it just me or are some models saying one thing and some are saying another? Don't think anybody quite knows if it'll be all of Wales having snow or not!

[Panayiotis]

Update for the snow on Friday: We are very likely to see snow on Friday, duration and accumulations still unknown but the GFS and UKMO have a much better angle to the low, and has shifted everything a bit west (which is what we want to happen), currently the front stalls over much of Wales, with the east getting the heavier stuff, i would expect the west to get snow but it will probably turn to rain. Met Office now have amber warnings for SE/E of Wales (which is a great indication of what may be coming). More to follow tonight when the fax charts/ECM comes out!

PS. GFS in the last runs has been keen to give us another snow event early next week, after Friday my attention (if it is still showing come Friday) will go towards this, so overall cold to stay to at least next week.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Panayiotis

[bradymk]

Rain/Snow for me.. Which probably means sleet then!

Is it just me or are some models saying one thing and some are saying another? Don't think anybody quite knows if it'll be all of Wales having snow or not!

Those GFS precipitation charts are not run at a high resolution and just because some areas have hatched lines, doesnt mean this will be snow as there are far more variables to consider and these are just a very rough guide. Take a look at dew points, you want these to below 0c and surface wind to be south easterly. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= this is a high resolution model used by the metoffice. Much more detail, but use with caution also. Very much a nowcast event this one.

[bradymk]

NAE 12z shifts ever so slightly westward but still not enough for my location. Look how close Pembrokeshire is though, we need a 30 mile west shift to be in with a chance here. 5c dew points in south pembs, -0c in Carmarthen only 30 miles away. Anywhere with 0c or below dew points will be snow no doubt, so cardiff still snowing at 12pm according to NAE. Snow turning to rain on the gower coast. For Pembrokeshire, its CURRENTLY a rain rain event. But trust me, this event will go right down to the wire. Changes will happen right up to the today, hopefully continuing to shift westwards, i can dream!!

Edited January 16, 2013 by bradythemole

[CardiffStorm]

I think that anything east of Swansea will get snow on Friday. The SW corner of Wales is likely to be the only area not getting major snow.

[Stevetynant]

MO Warning for me gives heavy snow from 3am Fri through to 3pm when it turns to light snow unti midnight. Saturday is cloudy but the temperatures never get above zero and Sunday afternoon a return to light snow.

Whether it turns out that way who knows - at least my £5 Asda snow shovel is starting to get excited

[CardiffStorm]

MO Warning for me gives heavy snow from 3am Fri through to 3pm when it turns to light snow unti midnight. Saturday is cloudy but the temperatures never get above zero and Sunday afternoon a return to light snow.

Whether it turns out that way who knows - at least my £5 Asda snow shovel is starting to get excited

At your height (200m asl) you're very likely to be getting some decent snow on Friday and maybe in to Saturday morning.

[Panayiotis]

At your height (200m asl) you're very likely to be getting some decent snow on Friday and maybe in to Saturday morning.

What about us, I would think we will be in the line of heavy snow?

[CardiffStorm]

What about us, I would think we will be in the line of heavy snow?

Most definitely on Friday, although it may become sleety/rainy the closer to the coast you get. North Cardiff could see some decent accumulations though.

[bradymk]

What about us, I would think we will be in the line of heavy snow?

I would say Cardiff at the moment is good, dew points below freezing and south east winds with wbfl good also on high res models up until what we can see anyway, however its not a definate and NAE does show snow turning to rain along the south coast through the day but whether it reaches Cardiff i am not sure yet, but your certainly in a good place right now. By the way, GEM is the best for the whole for Wales as the trough disrupts and the front pivots more NW SE'ly giving nearly all of Wales snow. One to watch, its around 50 miles further west than the others, a small change could make a big difference here.

[Stevetynant]

GO GEM - Spread the white to all of Wales (he says having booked Friday off work)

[The Weather Dragon]

I would say Cardiff at the moment is good, dew points below freezing and south east winds with wbfl good also on high res models up until what we can see anyway, however its not a definate and NAE does show snow turning to rain along the south coast through the day but whether it reaches Cardiff i am not sure yet, but your certainly in a good place right now. By the way, GEM is the best for the whole for Wales as the trough disrupts and the front pivots more NW SE'ly giving nearly all of Wales snow. One to watch, its around 50 miles further west than the others, a small change could make a big difference here.

Brady - Have not seen GEM yet - is it good for Pembrokeshire?

[bradymk]

Brady - Have not seen GEM yet - is it good for Pembrokeshire?

It is around 40-50 miles further west than the other models and the front pivots and gives us at least snow until the evening. However it is the only one this far west even though they all have shifted westwards very slightly, including the NAE. We need a 50 mile shift to get at least something. Plausible but we're running out of times. Definately going to be a nowcasting situation and there will be more changes.

[The Weather Dragon]

It is around 40-50 miles further west than the other models and the front pivots and gives us at least snow until the evening. However it is the only one this far west even though they all have shifted westwards very slightly, including the NAE. We need a 50 mile shift to get at least something. Plausible but we're running out of times. Definately going to be a nowcasting situation and there will be more changes.

As you say very much nowcasting - a 50 miles shift is peanuts in a Northen Hemisphere/atmospheric sense

[CardiffStorm]

The minor details are going to make all the difference for those in SW Wales. As @bradythemole has said, a 50 mile change could make the difference between snow and no snow.

[Snowmadsam]

It is around 40-50 miles further west than the other models and the front pivots and gives us at least snow until the evening. However it is the only one this far west even though they all have shifted westwards very slightly, including the NAE. We need a 50 mile shift to get at least something. Plausible but we're running out of times. Definately going to be a nowcasting situation and there will be more changes.

I think the high will stop it for a few hours..which is good or the high will expand and move the front west

[bradymk]

As you say very much nowcasting - a 50 miles shift is peanuts in a Northen Hemisphere/atmospheric sense

Quite, and with these evolutions in the past, we do tend to see a shift south and westwards but this hasnt really happened, only very slightly in the last 12 hours, so heres to shifting even more in the next 12 hours Im a bit annoyed that were missing out by around 50 miles but then again, on the day, we could easily see a shift westwards as precip doesnt make it far east and the front pivots. Unlikely now but its always possible, surprise snowfalls have occured many times from this situation. Those anywhere east of Carmarthen must be licking your lips though, its going to be a great snow event for you. Swansea i think will see snow but it will turn to rain here without a westward shift.

I think the high will stop it for a few hours..which is good or the high will expand and move the front west

We live in hope, unlikely for our area but not impossible that the models are still slight underestimating the high and the front doesnt make it as far east as forecast, because its only a small shift needed.

Edited January 16, 2013 by bradythemole

[Telegram 4 Mongo]

I think its going to be one of those events so finely balanced that higher ground 100m + in Swansea will fare much better than ground below 100m also in Swansea.

It must be fairly rare that the weather or snow amounts could differ so vastly just in one city let alone 10 mile east or west.

Keep moving West !

Give hope to Pembrokeshinarians!!

Give snow to Milford Haven!

Give FEET OF SNOW to Milford Haven.

Is Milford Haven the most snowless place in Wales?

If not which town is the worst off for snow in Wales?

[Snowmadsam]

Quite, and with these evolutions in the past, we do tend to see a shift south and westwards but this hasnt really happened, only very slightly in the last 12 hours, so heres to shifting even more in the next 12 hours Im a bit annoyed that were missing out by around 50 miles but then again, on the day, we could easily see a shift westwards as precip doesnt make it far east and the front pivots. Unlikely now but its always possible, surprise snowfalls have occured many times from this situation. Those anywhere east of Carmarthen must be licking your lips though, its going to be a great snow event for you. Swansea i think will see snow but it will turn to rain here without a westward shift.

We live in hope, unlikely for our area but not impossible that the models are still slight underestimating the high and the front doesnt make it as far east as forecast, because its only a small shift needed.

the small shift could also mean that we get the front to stall as the high would be saying "No go away"....

[Ginkrots]

I'm so excited! S.E wales is in the amber warning currently so there should be 10cm here.

This min temperature chart is showing -16 over the snowy areas of wales on sat night/sun. Not entirely reliable yet but BRRRR!!

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/01/16/basis06/ukuk/tmin/13012006_2_1606.gif

Edited January 16, 2013 by ginkrots

[benb]

It is around 40-50 miles further west than the other models and the front pivots and gives us at least snow until the evening. However it is the only one this far west even though they all have shifted westwards very slightly, including the NAE. We need a 50 mile shift to get at least something. Plausible but we're running out of times. Definately going to be a nowcasting situation and there will be more changes.

Yep- wouldn't take much to get Pembrokeshire properly in the mix and slight westward corrections today (NAE) have been encouraging... there's still so many variables, it's not out of the question.

As it stands, I think that even in Pembs the higher ground N and E of the A40 (Whitland-Haverfordwest-Fishguard) will see a few centimetres.

Fingers crossed for positive developments from the runs this evening...

4.4c currently and a few spits and spots of rain.