Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013>

[benb]

Friday's still open to a lot of variables-

block a bit stronger/weaker than expected,

low pressure arriving a bit stronger/weaker,

actual angle of attack and the direction this pulls the winds from

- all can affect what's going to actually happen on Friday and where, when and how much snow will fall.

None of them are 100% certain, yet.

[Cymro]

hi mike from reading your posts its clear you know about weather charts etc,could you explain why in model threads quite a few saying its over as reguards to snow for most of wales when your post obased on charts etc shows snow, is it because some on there don't have a clue(like me) or are they onto something or are they just winding people up? thanks

No it's because most that is said in the model thread ought to be taken with a pinch of salt, some people stick their hopes all on one run and chart and when that changes at it will unevitably will they call the revelations. Snow is fairly likely IMO away from the immediate south western coast, some places could see 6+ inches plus of snow, others may have a wetter more sleety snow that will only amount to a few centimeters, it will be down to nowcasting and as mike said, for the winds to veer more of a south easterly then bingo even the southern coasts of Wales could be in for a good amount.

[Wales123098]

hi mike from reading your posts its clear you know about weather charts etc,could you explain why in model threads quite a few saying its over as reguards to snow for most of wales when your post obased on charts etc shows snow, is it because some on there don't have a clue(like me) or are they onto something or are they just winding people up? thanks

It's probably just them hopping everything heads to the East/SE England again so they get the snow while we get rain. I ignore the model thread there is too much conflict and too much SE bias in there. Generally you get some good guy who's post some realistic charts from models in here to tell us what's actually happening in Wales.

[TonyH]

Hmm too much of a southerly aspect showing ahead of the fronts and what with ECM having the 0c uppers close to Wales midnight tomorrow, all in all blocking less effective in the short term. We are struggling even today and tomorrow to get into the really cold air that looked likely a few days ago.

[bradymk]

Ian F said confidence now inxreasing re disruptive snow in the west country friday. Surely that is good for us. I am surprised by this, as Tony and others have said, more of a southerly ahead of the front now and not as cold.

[Snowmadsam]

Ian F said confidence now inxreasing re disruptive snow in the west country friday. Surely that is good for us. I am surprised by this, as Tony and others have said, more of a southerly ahead of the front now and not as cold.

Well we shall have to keep watch of the shortwave, I am hoping that block is stronger

All to play for really , just got to hope...fingers crossed for everyone in the South West of Wales (including myself!)

[dingdong]

Ian F said confidence now inxreasing re disruptive snow in the west country friday. Surely that is good for us. I am surprised by this, as Tony and others have said, more of a southerly ahead of the front now and not as cold.

Quite, I notice that bbc Wales weather did not show graphics for Friday at 8am (when they did earlier) timing would coincide with latest fax charts. GFS has been quite bullish the last cpl runs with regards to keeping the front further west. The met must be taking note if this, carol just mentioned possible large snow amounts across mid and east wales, but did not sound confident with regards to how far through the front moves.

[mikeocarroll]

hi mike from reading your posts its clear you know about weather charts etc,could you explain why in model threads quite a few saying its over as reguards to snow for most of wales when your post obased on charts etc shows snow, is it because some on there don't have a clue(like me) or are they onto something or are they just winding people up? thanks

Really it's just that small differences in the model output make a big difference as to how much snow we see on Friday, so a lot of different possiblities remain. The NAE model in particular is much more progressive with warmer air heading into Wales well ahead of the main front and a more SWerly direction of the flow.

The NMM like I said is more southerly which is marginal, we really need it to be more SErly, but I think there remains a fair possiblity of that.

[bradymk]

Really it's just that small differences in the model output make a big difference as to how much snow we see on Friday, so a lot of different possiblities remain. The NAE model in particular is much more progressive with warmer air heading into Wales well ahead of the main front and a more SWerly direction of the flow.

The NMM like I said is more southerly which is marginal, we really need it to be more SErly, but I think there remains a fair possiblity of that.

Ian F saying to ignore raw NAE output

[matty lfc]

48 hours away and nobody from old Jim down the market to the chief forecaster at the Meto and his billion pound super computer have a clue at what's going to happen.

Could be a foot for some or,just as easily,a few cms of wet slush.

Oh the joys of living on a tiny island in the Atlantic!!

[dingdong]

Ian F saying to ignore raw NAE output

Yes IF saying ignore it, and ECM ens mean showing the low further south west than the op (and more inline with gfs) are all good signs

[bradymk]

However, looking at output as it stands, hardly if any snow for my area now friday, still looking good for mid and east wales however but i need a shift SWards and soon!!!

[RainyNWales]

So is that North Wales screwed aswell? From the little i understand if the GFS is right we are in for some fun in the North

[bradymk]

So is that North Wales screwed aswell? From the little i understand if the GFS is right we are in for some fun in the North

Sorry meant to include N Wales, -3 dew point and 30mph south easterly wind, temp 0c, wbfl good too

[huw1985]

If Friday's event turns out to be rain it will be an extremely disappointing event - we had sleet here in Canton on Sunday night for about two hours and thereafter just rain! Now it looks like Friday will be confined to rain/sleet at best.

[bradymk]

http://expert-images...011806_1606.gif Latest NAE now covering 06h Friday, Snow for most of wales except bloomin Pembrokeshire and the west coast, all we need is a slight shift south west however! plenty more changes, Edited January 16, 2013 by bradythemole

[bradymk]

NMM 0.5 on meteociel has more snow for Wales than NAE, it is also a high res model.

[Lampost watcher]

06z not so good for swansea/neath and far southern areas - more progressive and milder air caught up...

[Buzz]

A few people are doing something that I used to do, namely looking at the fax charts/model output and assuming that the wind direction is along the line of the isobars.

This is in fact not the case - what happens with an area of low pressure is that the wind turns a little inward towards the centre, so if you look at an area of low pressure and see the isobars aligned north to south on the east side then the wind direction will be roughly from the south/south east.

With an area of high pressure the opposite applies, so the wind direction is outwards and away from the centre.

Just thought this might alleviate some worry here.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Buzz

[Snowmadsam]

http://expert-images...011806_1606.gif Latest NAE now covering 06h Friday, Snow for most of wales except bloomin Pembrokeshire and the west coast, all we need is a slight shift south west however! plenty more changes,

Yes I'm hoping this comes off lol, there is still a chance of the rain being south west orientated and if the block holds things will be great!

[Blackjack]

Well looking at the GFS I may not be getting out of Abergavenny for a while after Friday.

[dingdong]

06z not so good for swansea/neath and far southern areas - more progressive and milder air caught up...

Don't agree, the low tilts better, and as it slides away southeast, not only does it drag colder air back west, it develops a secondary low in the channel bringing another high snow risk for Saturday

After that is brings another undercutting system in to start next week.

DD

[Icequeen]

Feeling dispondent,sad, melancholy..... Infact absolutely devastated .

[Bafan]

Blimey! After reading through the last few pages, I'm worn out! Think I best go back to bed lol! I'm refusing to get to excited yet but it is looking good.

[matty lfc]

The latest gfs would cause disruption to parts of the UK not seen for many a year quickly followed by an attack from an even colder NE direction.

I'm getting more confident now that that most of wales will get snow now,amounts still open to debate