Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013>

[DeepSnow]

I hope to come on here tomorrow to upgrades for Wales, its about time we got something decent!!!

[Panayiotis]

I hope to come on here tomorrow to upgrades for Wales, its about time we got something decent!!!

I think the models may move the low further SE but not much as we are 2 days away from the event, im hoping Metoffice change their views too!

Short ensembles show a 85% chance of snow, and it has upgraded with every run today, so thats why I think we may see more corrections to favour us.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Panayiotis

[J10]

I think the models may move the low further SE but not much as we are 2 days away from the event, im hoping Metoffice change their views too!

Their website looks promising for Friday.

(and obviously doesn't agree with TV forecasts)

Edited January 15, 2013 by Jackone

[Panayiotis]

Their website looks promising for Friday.

I havent looked (shouldve had done that before posting sorry) but Ian F has tweeted that the UKM think the pattern may be more progressive, which is bad if want the snow to stall right where want it (Wales!!)lol. Edited January 15, 2013 by Panayiotis

[bradymk]

I havent looked (shouldve had did that before posting sorry) but Ian F has tweeted that the UKM think the pattern may be more progressive, which is bad if want the snow to stall right where want it (Wales!!)lol.

He also said best case scenario for snow lovers is 6+ hours of heavy snow and sig wind chill. Best case scenario for people who do not want snow is a few hours of snow followed by rain and showers. They still dont really have much of an idea

[dhillcrest]

Think you mean the January 2010 breakdown.

Me too - never seen snow pile up so quickly - that came to me in NE Wales about 3pm from the south

[Marcus_surfer]

anyone else feel drained after looking at this forum tonight? i need a break

[Ginkrots]

BBC website is showing a bit of light snow and then sleet.. although i'd take that with a pinch of salt. It never seems to be right, usually overestimating temps and wrong with the precipitation.

According to the BBC forecast for Newport it's only just reached 0 celcius, even though it was below freezing since 4pm and is now -5.

[pyrotech]

Which FAX chart is this, is it the T+72, I posted 3 hrs ago is still a SE flow, albeit a slight one.

Clearly not the undercut of yesterday, but that was always the outsider.

yes that 72, even between that and 84, the 84 had a further East based flow over Wales , a slack area of air over france being source, now source is completely Atlantic based and that slight modification in temperature will be critical, (dew points) for us, if that verifies or continues. However we both know that it will be different but in which direction.

[alijoe]

In model thread they are saying I ferguson is putting alot of tweats tonight and looking as though it is looking more likely the NAE is looking more favourable and west country /wales more rain than snow????? well that is what I am to my very very untrained eye can see. I soooooooo hope not, it will be just our luck.

[pyrotech]

To be honest nothing will be resolved tonight, i am off to bed and crossing my fingers that Meto revert back sometime tomorrow.

Plenty to play for.

However i can not imagine if accross the border they get the snow again.

Those in Mid Wales are still looking good, lets hope for upgrades now so us in the South and South West also get some Snow

[J10]

Ian's exact comment on Twitter.

Exact quote is:

Met Office output somewhat different to GFS for Friday: more progressive pushing snow thro W Country with rain following. Still v uncertain. Moreover: Met Office feeds a blustery, (somewhat) less cold showery story into W Country for weekend & no further extensive snow potential. In simple terms: Friday forecast remains tricky on timing of snow & how long it lasts here; weekend v uncertain (snow Sat in Midlands, N, E) Worst-case scenario for Bristol/W Country on Fri is 6+ hrs continual moderate to heavy snow, w significant windchill: atrocious conditions. Best-case scenario (for non-snowmantics) is few hours snow & sig windchill turning to cold rain later in day and thus more limited impacts. Even better-case but currently unlikely scenario (for non-snowmantics) is milder push earlier from W thro Thurs, making snow less likely Fri

any ways been on here too long tonight.

[Wales123098]

If anyone has a smartphone I recommend downloading the MetOffice Application for my location it has heavy snow from 09:00 Friday and snowing non stop until Saturday at 18:00 I have an Iphone don't know if the app is different on other smart phones.

[Wales123098]

Would be fantastic if that happened:)

Edited January 16, 2013 by Wales123098

[Bonjangle]

Would be fantastic if that happened:)

It will happen , dont ever belive what you read , some bullish reports in the Lunatic thread .

Potential is showing , also outside is freezing , down to -3.8 and still dropping also 2day is only going to get up above freezing , Game on i say

[Snowmadsam]

Well BBC Weather now saying something completely different....

I give up.....will wait until the event and then the smug face shall go on

[Bonjangle]

Time for bed here , but i did stay up and watched the latest forecast just now , and must say at the end of that forecast , the windows they show(4) Cardiff was well in for a good snow day and night

[andymusic]

FEET OF SNOW

[Telegram 4 Mongo]

National bbc weather showing quicker snow to rain event .

But of a downgrade I think , but kind of expected this !!!

Move West and upgrade please pretty please !

Usual high ground valley areas should fare much better than lowlands and west .

I DEMAND THAT FRONT SLOW DOWN !!!!

[Frozone]

That's it then, major downgrade rain NO snow

[Pamela Davies]

Met office just put snow coming in tomorrow afternoon for me in talbot green

[welshwizard]

I just saw itv weather and they spoke about blizzard but then showed the summery and it said rain and hill snow so could be what norm happens around here, m4 north snow and around and below rain or sleet. I think for the people who want snow they better get out and do a cold temp dance as that's what we need so that it comes in as snow and stays as snow. as many who know their stuff on here have said we probs wont know until the event starts and I have seen over the years things change even when it starts. my kids(not that young any more) want major snow so get out and dance guys ha ha. cold dance cold dance cold dance

Met office just put snow coming in tomorrow afternoon for me in talbot green

I noticed that as well and it also showed it on tv weather earlier, keep an eye on that hope that keeps cold in and don't raise the temps.

[Pamela Davies]

My daughters skin has just flared up only ever happens when weather takes on a big change so fingers crossed its going to snow

[mikeocarroll]

My view this morning from a very quick glance at GFS/ECM/NMM is that for Fri GFS shows more snowy over Wales (the outcome many of us would like) with the cold digging back in, ECM hard to tell as it doesn't have the 3hour breakdown like GFS, but seems to push the front a bit further althougb would be a lot of snow down here first.

NMM is interesting being a high-res model, it doesn't seem to me to be as progressive as the NAE, you can see this for midnight Friday:

As you can see the flow is more or less directly southerly, pretty much in line with yesterday's fax chart to my eyes. It's fairly marginal but will be very interesting to see the next 6-12 hours when they come out, because I think the winds should back south-easterly and bring the cold dewpoints (and indeed uppers) back towards us. But it really depends on the track of that shortwave to the SW and just how south it goes.

[welshwizard]

My view this morning from a very quick glance at GFS/ECM/NMM is that for Fri GFS shows more snowy over Wales (the outcome many of us would like) with the cold digging back in, ECM hard to tell as it doesn't have the 3hour breakdown like GFS, but seems to push the front a bit further althougb would be a lot of snow down here first.

NMM is interesting being a high-res model, it doesn't seem to me to be as progressive as the NAE, you can see this for midnight Friday:

As you can see the flow is more or less directly southerly, pretty much in line with yesterday's fax chart to my eyes. It's fairly marginal but will be very interesting to see the next 6-12 hours when they come out, because I think the winds should back south-easterly and bring the cold dewpoints (and indeed uppers) back towards us. But it really depends on the track of that shortwave to the SW and just how south it goes.

hi mike from reading your posts its clear you know about weather charts etc,could you explain why in model threads quite a few saying its over as reguards to snow for most of wales when your post obased on charts etc shows snow, is it because some on there don't have a clue(like me) or are they onto something or are they just winding people up? thanks