Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013>

[J10]

BBC main forecast was more in line with NAE, Snow moving in on Thursday then rain over most of Wales with the Snow over the border.

Showed quite a lot of snow to me and mentioned the big uncertainty at moment. [saw Network TV]

Interesting that in a way NAE goes against UKMO, with UKMO very positive for snow.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Jackone

[pyrotech]

GFS is fine, P E R F E C T, but NAE is not, local forecast was good, but recorded, BBC main forecast was much more in line with NAE, plenty of time for changes but interesting to see what Ian F has to say, perhaps NAE was right, i do hope not.

Im on BBC News channel now waiting to see on there.

[Staffordshire]

Whos going to house me from thursday night then? haha but no it seriously looks great for you guys

[J10]

What time are we likely to see PPN start falling in S Wales on Friday?

Around 6am possibly, getting heavy around 9am and possibly lasting around 12 hours with no stall.

[Marcus_surfer]

Was it 2009 that we had the same set up? A low coming up from the southwest with increasing biting easterly winds set in, the winds gusted to 35-40mph for much of the day with dark grey skies, by 3pm, the snow had set in, at lower levels of swansea it started as rain but only a few hundred feet made a difference, we ended up with about 6inches with some drifting in places, it snowed all night.

[keithlucky]

This chart my favorite because as i hoped the Atlantic fails and everything is pushed back westwards

[pyrotech]

Take a look at the updated fax charts, gone is the South easterly, in comes Southerly.

Jackone this has moved slightly against us and no one more gutted than me, but i have to say what it says.

[Marcus_surfer]

Around 6am possibly, getting heavy around 9am and possibly lasting around 12 hours with no stall.

Thank you, what's this about Thursday seeing some light sleet and snow in western wales (BBC forecasts), any charts to back this up?

[welshwizard]

BBC main forecast was more in line with NAE, Snow moving in on Thursday then rain over most of Wales with the Snow over the border.

that has changed then as it was snow this afternoon for nearly all wales. so has anything changed? I don't think anyone will know for deff until you look at your lamppost.

[Bonjangle]

that has changed then as it was snow this afternoon for nearly all wales. so has anything changed? I don't think anyone will know for deff until you look at your lamppost.

Avent got a lamppost ere local coucil turns them of @20-30pm .

Edited January 15, 2013 by Aquastarmist

[welshwizard]

Avent got a lamppost ere local coucil turns them of @20-30pm .

you need a good torch then ha ha

[bradymk]

ok so latest bbc forecast showing new updated graphics, not as good for Wales along the south coast however I wouldn't read much into these. Tomorrows runs, and even thursdays runs are crucial and there will be plenty more changes yet!!! hopefully for the better. although the meto seem more confident now off a spell of snow, with rain and showers late on friday, into the weekend.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Was it 2009 that we had the same set up? A low coming up from the southwest with increasing biting easterly winds set in, the winds gusted to 35-40mph for much of the day with dark grey skies, by 3pm, the snow had set in, at lower levels of swansea it started as rain but only a few hundred feet made a difference, we ended up with about 6inches with some drifting in places, it snowed all night.

Indeed, i remember that well started as snow here on low ground Swansea then turned back to rain for most of the night before reverting back to snow in the morning giving a covering but i remember most higher parts of Swansea had snow right the way through. Possibly the same thing may happen again we'll have to wait and see.

Edited January 15, 2013 by SnowStorm(Jamie)

[pyrotech]

Okay just watched on BBC NEWS Channel

Starts as snow apart from in Far West, remains as snow North of Merthyr / Brecon and East of Cardiff.

Cardiff in the area between snow or Sleet, can obviously move further East or back West.

Yes forecast has changed, more inline with NAE, but if you look at fax charts it looks like the low deepens saturday then bringing more Easterly flow.

I really think this can upgrade or downgrade alot yet

But i am trying to give true and accurate information rather than just what we want to hear.

[J10]

Thank you, what's this about Thursday seeing some light sleet and snow in western wales (BBC forecasts), any charts to back this up?

NAE has gone in a different direction pushing things through a bit quicker.

Interesting to see that NMM has gone completely against this and largely backs the GFS.

Okay just watched on BBC NEWS Channel

Starts as snow apart from in Far West, remains as snow North of Merthyr / Brecon and East of Cardiff.

Cardiff in the area between snow or Sleet, can obviously move further East or back West.

Yes forecast has changed, more inline with NAE, but if you look at fax charts it looks like the low deepens saturday then bringing more Easterly flow.

I really think this can upgrade or downgrade alot yet

But i am trying to give true and accurate information rather than just what we want to hear.

Clearly the forecast has changed then from the one I saw at 2235 on National TV and still available on BBC website on TV rewind feature.

I also always give true and accurate information on this thread as well, despite the ups and downs on here over the past week.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Jackone

[J10]

Was it 2009 that we had the same set up? A low coming up from the southwest with increasing biting easterly winds set in, the winds gusted to 35-40mph for much of the day with dark grey skies, by 3pm, the snow had set in, at lower levels of swansea it started as rain but only a few hundred feet made a difference, we ended up with about 6inches with some drifting in places, it snowed all night.

Which event in 2009?

[Marcus_surfer]

taken from model output very much like this, dew points begin to fall again into friday night even though winds become s/se

[alijoe]

Can I ask a question please? I live in Magor, right by the new severn bridge, and most of the time I feel a bit in no mans land for the weather. Most of the time, I don't get anything like the weather predicted in Wales, obviously being so close to the severn and I usually get a tad more like the weather in Bristol (but not central bristol), any ideas where I would be roughly based in this set up? i./e wale or south west?

[Marcus_surfer]

Which event in 2009?

can't remember, it was great though, could have been February, gave us some real great snow, from a low coming up from the southwest, it was bitterly cold too once the wind picked up

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

I think what may be altering the BBC forecasts (The latest update) is the NAE's angle of attack for Friday.

You see the Upper flow of air is from the South/SW:

http://expert-images...011718_1518.gif

Now look at the upper air temperatures in the region where the flow is originating from:

http://expert-images...011718_1518.gif

To the SW of the UK we see upper air temperatures of +0c & above so further NE progression of the low pressure system/front will cause these higher temps to also move NE.

[bradymk]

can't remember, it was great though, could have been February, gave us some real great snow, from a low coming up from the southwest, it was bitterly cold too once the wind picked up

Think you mean the January 2010 breakdown.

[bradymk]

I think what may be altering the BBC forecasts (The latest update) is the NAE's angle of attack for Friday.

You see the Upper flow of air is from the South/SW:

http://expert-images...011718_1518.gif

Now look at the upper air temperatures in the region where the flow is originating from:

http://expert-images...011718_1518.gif

To the SW of the UK we see upper air temperatures of +0c & above so further NE progression of the low pressure system/front will cause these higher temps to also move NE.

Ian F said MetO regarding NAE as an outlier currently but needs to be treated with caution.

[Marcus_surfer]

Think you mean the January 2010 breakdown.

6 February 2009 i think

[Panayiotis]

-2C in Cardiff, im expecting it to drop further as the night goes on, as the lowest temp is reached around 4-5am, so possible -4C...I love this modified Siberian climate!

Edited January 15, 2013 by Panayiotis

[J10]

Take a look at the updated fax charts, gone is the South easterly, in comes Southerly.

Jackone this has moved slightly against us and no one more gutted than me, but i have to say what it says.

Which FAX chart is this, is it the T+72, I posted 3 hrs ago is still a SE flow, albeit a slight one.

Clearly not the undercut of yesterday, but that was always the outsider.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Jackone