Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013>

[andymusic]

Yellow Alert of Snow for Wales

Yellow Alert of Snow for Wales : Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Pembrokeshire, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Torfaen, Vale of Glamorgan & Wrexham valid from 0900 Fri 18 Jan to 2355 Fri 18 Jan

The following Meto warning covers the whole of Wales. Their matrix says at the moment low confidence but potentially high impact, which is why the warning has gone out already.

Issued at: 1233 on Tue 15 Jan 2013

Valid from: 0900 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

Valid to: 2355 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

As the weather breaks down, there is the potential for a spell of snow to spread from the southwest. As winds strengthen, blizzard conditions are a possibility, especially over high ground. Accumulations of 2-5 cm are possible quite widely and in some locations, especially higher ground, 15 cm are possible.

The public should be aware of the possibility of travel disruption. This warning is likely to be updated over the next few days.

Blizzard conditions eh - FEET OF SNOW - I WILL BE RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

EDIT:- Get your food supplies in and check your heating systems over - temps will be dropping like a stone over the next few days then the atlantic front will stall over Wales - because of the coldness of the air over us - and will dump FEET OF SNOW OVER WALES!

THIS WILL ALSO HAPPEN AGAIN AND AGAIN TILL AT LEAST THE END OF THE MONTH - LEADING TO STUPID AMOUNTS OF SNOW OR AS IN THE FILM SPACE BALLS - LUDICROUS AMOUNTS OF SNOW - FEET OF SNOW

Edited January 15, 2013 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

Yellow Alert of Snow for Wales

Yellow Alert of Snow for Wales : Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Pembrokeshire, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Torfaen, Vale of Glamorgan & Wrexham valid from 0900 Fri 18 Jan to 2355 Fri 18 Jan

Blizzard conditions eh - FEET OF SNOW - I WILL BE RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

EDIT:- Get your food supplies in and check your heating systems over - temps will be dropping like a stone over the next few days then the atlantic front will stall over Wales - because of the coldness of the air over us - and will dump FEET OF SNOW OVER WALES!

THIS WILL ALSO HAPPEN AGAIN AND AGAIN TILL AT LEAST THE END OF THE MONTH - LEADING TO STUPID AMOUNTS OF SNOW OR AS IN THE FILM SPACE BALLS - LUDICROUS AMOUNTS OF SNOW - FEET OF SNOW

Do you know Andy how conservative the Met Office are but they mention the key word a rare word BLIZZARDS> Edited January 15, 2013 by keithlucky

[djwayne]

Seems strange to me that they have issued a warning 3 days out as normally we have a covering before we get the warning. I must say seeing this warning is very encouraging as they obviously think something is on its way for us on friday to have issued that warning.

I know the situation between now and friday can still change but I am quietly confident that we will get a result this time

[keithlucky]

Seems strange to me that they have issued a warning 3 days out as normally we have a covering before we get the warning. I must say seeing this warning is very encouraging as they obviously think something is on its way for us on friday to have issued that warning.

I know the situation between now and friday can still change but I am quietly confident that we will get a result this time

Very unusual ,so signs of the met being worried normally warnings 2 days before,personally I see a stalling front over S Wales Friday night with another front pushing into the stalled front.So exciting weather ahead this weekend. Edited January 15, 2013 by keithlucky

[andymusic]

This comment from Pascals Bongo - Swansea

ANDY if i could post i would have to attempt to surpass your feet of snow with METRES OF SNOW !!

Hunker down and hibernate like a rabbit in a hole, a snow hole , a snow hole that is metres deep in the snow, metres deep in freshly fallen snow

MEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEETERS I TELL YA

MEEEEEEEEEEEETERS

You heard it from me first METRES OF SNOW ON FRIDAY.

Edited January 15, 2013 by andymusic

[Telegram 4 Mongo]

Hiya guys and gals !

Whats all this i hear about blizzards then? blizzards in Wales? I heard stories of a blizzard in 1982 and Bonymaen in Swansea being cut off , but surely that cant happen again?

Im morriston area by the way.

Lol somehow a metre of snow is just a tad excessive, as is feet of snow.

I predict appox 4-6 inches before a rapid melt from rainfall, as its just what always happens and there is no reason why it will be different this time.

Its just not cold enough at present in my view, the cold just hasnt embedded in this area enough , maybe further east , definatly above 2-300 metres or so .

Blizzards PFFFFFFFT

[alijoe]

Yellow Alert of Snow for Wales

Yellow Alert of Snow for Wales : Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Pembrokeshire, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Torfaen, Vale of Glamorgan & Wrexham valid from 0900 Fri 18 Jan to 2355 Fri 18 Jan

Blizzard conditions eh - FEET OF SNOW - I WILL BE RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

EDIT:- Get your food supplies in and check your heating systems over - temps will be dropping like a stone over the next few days then the atlantic front will stall over Wales - because of the coldness of the air over us - and will dump FEET OF SNOW OVER WALES!

THIS WILL ALSO HAPPEN AGAIN AND AGAIN TILL AT LEAST THE END OF THE MONTH - LEADING TO STUPID AMOUNTS OF SNOW OR AS IN THE FILM SPACE BALLS - LUDICROUS AMOUNTS OF SNOW - FEET OF SNOW

Andy.....i am worried. normally you are excited at this snow prospect but i don't see any excitement of this from you as yet..... lol

[soupsurfer7]

GFS moving the snow away from Wales... I've a feeling this will be downgraded to a rain event for most of Wales.

[welshgritter]

It will be downgraded

[Bonjangle]

It will be downgraded

i dont think so , go in the SW Thread and see what Ian Fergie just put in there , exiting times ahead.

Wouldn't be a damper if I could share 4-5d modified UKMO-GM output & MOGREPS with them.. ! ;-)

Edited January 15, 2013 by Aquastarmist

[Matty23]

u shoukd look at NAE plus 40 hours, snow thurs all day

[soupsurfer7]

Let's hope GFS is being too progressive.

u shoukd look at NAE plus 40 hours, snow thurs all day

Yes you're right, I didn't know there was precipitation forecast on Thursday!

[Phantom2]

This is looking more and more of a rain event to me with a small amount of snow possible on the front edge ...three days out so could still change but I'm not getting my hopes up to be honest.

[Matty23]

well actually 2days it may have been brought forward aday but im no expert but looks interesting.

[Cwmbran Eira]

i dont think so , go in the SW Thread and see what Ian Fergie just put in there , exiting times ahead.

Wouldn't be a damper if I could share 4-5d modified UKMO-GM output & MOGREPS with them.. ! ;-)

Very interesting. Not known for over ramping. Usually quite level headed although obviuosly enjoys the prospect of interesting weather

[Telegram 4 Mongo]

Not sure if anyone has posted the link :-http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2640135

But Dereks forecast to me is looking good so far....steady as she goes!!

Looks like most will get something that will at least last a few hours....just need the heavens to open their bowels and dump snow on us, then just as its about to turn runny ,pause (stall ) then let it thicken again and open bowels for another dumpage fest. ( reverse)

Double Dump

DD

D day

Edited January 15, 2013 by Telegram 4 Mongo

[Ginkrots]

Disappointing post from Ian F, but snow forecasts seem to change even a few hours before they happen..

"Atlantic push of milder air much faster on new NAE through Thursday, hence much to play for in terms of broader evolution thereafter IF the NAE prog has any validity. At the moment... we lean otherwise."

[Bonjangle]

Disappointing post from Ian F, but snow forecasts seem to change even a few hours before they happen..

"Atlantic push of milder air much faster on new NAE through Thursday, hence much to play for in terms of broader evolution thereafter IF the NAE prog has any validity. At the moment... we lean otherwise."

Dont worry upgrade's are coming , its looking good ...very good

[bradymk]

Phew, UKMO good and GFS is much better than its 6z output, we live in hope.

[soupsurfer7]

And so the roller coaster begins!

[derby4life]

Certainly is one hell of a roller coaster :-)

[bradymk]

Yes such a knife edge situation which could deliver huge snowfall totals or another just another wet day...

[DeepSnow]

Being only a mile inland and 100m asl, would I still likely see snow from this? I worry that it will end up warmer here so will be more rain?

[Bobby]

The 12z is much better for Wales than the 06z with more or less snow all the way, 15-20cm in places on this run.

Maybe places on the West coast could miss out on much of it but still adjustments to come.

[Cwmbran Eira]

Keeps the dream alive. Could be great.

I may get a few essentials in just in case. Bit low on beer at the moment.

Nicked from Gavin in model thread

Edited January 15, 2013 by Cwmbran Eira