Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013>

[orcacrew]

A few people are doing something that I used to do, namely looking at the fax charts/model output and assuming that the wind direction is along the line of the isobars.

This is in fact not the case - what happens with an area of low pressure is that the wind turns a little inward towards the centre, so if you look at an area of low pressure and see the isobars aligned north to south on the east side then the wind direction will be roughly from the south/south east.

With an area of high pressure the opposite applies, so the wind direction is outwards and away from the centre.

Just thought this might alleviate some worry here.

True if you look at xc weather wind guru and met office they've all forecast se winds for Friday here in tenby

[Lampost watcher]

Don't agree, the low tilts better, and as it slides away southeast, not only does it drag colder air back west, it develops a secondary low in the channel bringing another high snow risk for Saturday

After that is brings another undercutting system in to start next week.

DD

Yeah does get slightly better - I was looking at up to +54 which had precipitation of the milder variety on the south and west coasts and 10 miles(ish) inland

Edited January 16, 2013 by Lampost watcher

[Marcus_surfer]

Feeling dispondent,sad, melancholy..... Infact absolutely devastated .

More changes to come

[gareth moo]

The block is showing its teeth today outside. Feeling noticeably colder than of late. Veil of cloud and mist blocking the sun which did some damage to settled hill snow yesterday. Surely a good sign for a potential stall. East Wales and the valleys could be in line for a battering according to GFS.

[Icequeen]

More changes to come

I know, but Derek on twitter appears quite certain, although he did say charts change, just seems too marginal.....however I do seem to remember a good snowfall a few years ago which was not forecasted ( if I remember correctly) fingers crossed eh !!!!

[Buzz]

I'm well and truly sitting on the fence for my area - it's a bit uncomfortable and perhaps looks a bit daft, but it's probably the safest option.

BTW, and pretty OT, but in this cold weather don't forget to feed (and supply water for) our feathered friends - suet (not Lard!) and wild bird seed is very good for example.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Buzz

[immortal1969]

Very marginal situation.....im reckon we are in for rain again personally with plenty of snow nearer the welsh border and midlands etc......sorry to be doom and gloom folks

[welshwizard]

just read on s west thread that Ian fergusson sais that mendip hills Cotswolds and forest of dean see heaviest snow, does that mean that the cold air is more east or is he just talking about his area? I thought forest of dean was more our area. anyway my head is fried im off to rub my face in the ice out the garden to cool down

[Phantom2]

I still reckon rain for South and West Wales, the temps are just to marginal to be certain ..would love to be proved wrong though.

[Jackfrost]

just read on s west thread that Ian fergusson sais that mendip hills Cotswolds and forest of dean see heaviest snow, does that mean that the cold air is more east or is he just talking about his area? I thought forest of dean was more our area.

Well, the Forest of Dean runs along the border with Wales, so it's probably safe to include inland areas of Southeast Wales in that "heaviest snow" comment due to the hilly terrain in these parts.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Jackfrost

[worldairgroup]

I'm well and truly sitting on the fence for my area - it's a bit uncomfortable and perhaps looks a bit daft, but it's probably the safest option.

BTW, and pretty OT, but in this cold weather don't forget to feed (and supply water for) our feathered friends - suet (not Lard!) and wild bird seed is very good for example.

just done the very thing and fed the feathered friends! all gone now!

[bradymk]

surprise surprise, warning taken away from Pembrokeshire. However plenty of time for changes for sure. Still think we can get something out of this, even here in Pembs

[loadsa]

met office has been updated

Issued at: 1056 on Wed 16 Jan 2013

Valid from: 0300 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

Valid to: 2355 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

As the weather breaks down, an area of snow looks increasingly likely to spread from the southwest. Winds will strengthen and blizzard conditions are a possibility, especially over high ground. Accumulations of more than 10 cm of snow are possible in many parts, with the potential for some severe disruption, though currently there is a good deal of uncertainty about intensity of snow and how quickly it will turn to rain in the southwest.

The public should be aware of the risk of significant travel disruption affecting the west in the morning and the east in the afternoon. This warning is likely to be updated over the next couple of days.

Covers all of wales apart from the tip of pembroke

[Bafan]

Amber warnings out for Friday! Omg 25cm or more possible for some areas!

[loadsa]

Cardiff north and east now under an amber alert

[mikeocarroll]

The above is the yellow warning that covers almost all of Wales, there is also an amber warning for the eastern half of Wales (inc SE Wales and Cardiff), with the following text:

Issued at: 1123 on Wed 16 Jan 2013

Valid from: 0400 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

Valid to: 1800 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

As the weather breaks down, an area of snow looks increasingly likely to spread from the southwest. Winds will strengthen and blizzard conditions are likely, especially over high ground. Accumulations of more than 10-15 cm of snow could well occur quite widely, with the risk of 25 cm or more over high ground.

[Marcus_surfer]

Just on the dividing line of yellow/amber, but I will take that, should update to red warning over mid and east wales

Edited January 16, 2013 by Marcus_surfer

[loadsa]

Just posted this in the model thread

The Net Weather forcast goes right against the met office they are poles apart. Net Weather are saying 21% chance of snow and met office are saying batten down the hatches (imby to be honest). So what charts are everybody using, because it is obvious they are not the same. Anybody got a clue

[Bafan]

I wonder if there'll be any red warnings issued? Surely its gotta be If the volume and intensity turns out the way it's being predicted at the moment! Exciting times!

[g1blet]

Just on the dividing line of yellow/amber, but I will take that, should update to red warning over mid and east wales

expecting & hoping for a westwards shift to show on the 12z later, i'm not far from you, current projections will change slightly. question is for better or worse??

[mikeocarroll]

I wonder if there'll be any red warnings issued? Surely its gotta be If the volume and intensity turns out the way it's being predicted at the moment! Exciting times!

Red warnings are only issued shortly before an event when there is high confidence, if you go to the Meto warnings site and hover over the 'more details' link on the warning, you will see a matrix showing what colour warning is issued. For Friday's event the impact is sufficient for a red warning to be issued, but confidence is still not yet that high. If the event doesn't downgrade and if the more extreme solutions look like verifying, then you would expect to see a red alert issued late tomorrow evening.

[Buzz]

Just posted this in the model thread

The Net Weather forcast goes right against the met office they are poles apart. Net Weather are saying 21% chance of snow and met office are saying batten down the hatches (imby to be honest). So what charts are everybody using, because it is obvious they are not the same. Anybody got a clue

Short answer: No

Long answer: Highly unlikely

[alijoe]

I am getting a bit excited.....trying not to as it may go shape of the pear but it is hard not too lol.

[Marcus_surfer]

expecting & hoping for a westwards shift to show on the 12z later, i'm not far from you, current projections will change slightly. question is for better or worse??

It's anyone's guess, could turn to sleet slushy mush but could also be a major event for a time

Anything falling from the sky in Pembrokeshire,Carmarthenshire? Radar showing something

[SMU]

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC_05Grad/156_24.gif

Runs for cover

S