Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013>

[Gorky101]

the small shift could also mean that we get the front to stall as the high would be saying "No go away"....

If you look at the rainfall radar now its interesting that even the current front is turning to snow as it travels 40 to 50 miles inland from the western coast also intersting that those bands currently on the radar are intensifying and pushing into west wales. Im hoping for a bitter night to really get surface temps down when the major bands approach Friday and as others have said the these battlegrounds commonly get pushed south and west lets just hope they dont shoft too far are it will all end up in France!!!

[Snowmadsam]

Yep- wouldn't take much to get Pembrokeshire properly in the mix and slight westward corrections today (NAE) have been encouraging... there's still so many variables, it's not out of the question.

As it stands, I think that even in Pembs the higher ground N and E of the A40 (Whitland-Haverfordwest-Fishguard) will see a few centimetres.

Fingers crossed for positive developments from the runs this evening...

4.4c currently and a few spits and spots of rain.

Hehe...Login??

It will be interesting...radar says theres sleet but nothing falling from the sky....must tell mum not to wash the yard tomorrow...hahaha

I await the ECM

[mikeocarroll]

Is anyone else getting excited? A few comments:

1) Radar shows precip over NW Wales currently, any reports as to whether this is rain, snow, or non-existent (i.e. radar anaprop, evaporating before it hits the ground, etc?) This wasn't modelled, but is now showing on the latest GFS, NAE and (to some extent) NMM runs. It isn't likely to amount to much but yet again shows the difficulty in forecasting precip.

2) There is likley to be some light precip around tomorrow, which should be snow in the east of Wales, may be rain out west. This doesn't really have much bearing on what happens Friday.

3) The 12z models for Friday look similar to the 0z to me (from a quick glance not any close analysis) no real upgrade or downgrade either way. One thing I'd like to say though is people are talking about a snow to rain event, but it may be the other way round, i.e. start as rain but turn to snow as the low pressure undercuts and the winders back SErly, or it might be snow to rain to snow again. So please no premature moaning, only moan when you are sure you have missed out!

[Panayiotis]

Ensembles for my area, show a fairly high chance for snow until the 21st (it goes on further but now that is the furthest we can go as the 21st is still uncertain for snow prospects), which is very good IMO.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Snowmadsam]

IT IS SNOWING IN LOGIN!

[Panayiotis]

Very good and important comment from the south west thread, credit goes to @Iceberg for noticing it:

Just had a flick through the gfs 20 ens members for Friday evening and most actually stall the front much more over the sw, more akin to the gem.

Difficult call for the met office for us....do they go conservative and say 8 hrs of snow with 10-20cm on Friday or do they go realistic and go for 24 hrs of snow 30-40cm....

What a conundrum

Edited January 16, 2013 by Panayiotis

[FROZENFOOT]

Is anyone else getting excited? A few comments:

1) Radar shows precip over NW Wales currently, any reports as to whether this is rain, snow, or non-existent (i.e. radar anaprop, evaporating before it hits the ground, etc?) This wasn't modelled, but is now showing on the latest GFS, NAE and (to some extent) NMM runs. It isn't likely to amount to much but yet again shows the difficulty in forecasting precip.

2) There is likley to be some light precip around tomorrow, which should be snow in the east of Wales, may be rain out west. This doesn't really have much bearing on what happens Friday.

3) The 12z models for Friday look similar to the 0z to me (from a quick glance not any close analysis) no real upgrade or downgrade either way. One thing I'd like to say though is people are talking about a snow to rain event, but it may be the other way round, i.e. start as rain but turn to snow as the low pressure undercuts and the winders back SErly, or it might be snow to rain to snow again. So please no premature moaning, only moan when you are sure you have missed out!

can i expect to see snow here friday and saturday mike ? hay/glasbury area

[Telegram 4 Mongo]

Hmmmm Dereks latest forecast(approx 2pm) i do not like, still a fair way off , but the graphics and what he says send me on a downward part of the waiting for event to happen snollercoaster ride.

Ups and downs, but the beeb forecasts i think you have to trust above nearly all who post on Net Weather.

I look for a selected few posters comments, then compare these to the bbc graphics and i have to say that so far this winter they have been fairly accurate.

Hopefully Derek is just downplaying it, but he has been burned before.... maybe he hasnt learned lol who knows !!

[bradymk]

Yep- wouldn't take much to get Pembrokeshire properly in the mix and slight westward corrections today (NAE) have been encouraging... there's still so many variables, it's not out of the question.

As it stands, I think that even in Pembs the higher ground N and E of the A40 (Whitland-Haverfordwest-Fishguard) will see a few centimetres.

Fingers crossed for positive developments from the runs this evening...

4.4c currently and a few spits and spots of rain.

Yes the preseli's will do very well out of this I feel and Whitland may be far enough east for snow also. I hope for more of these western corrections in NAE in updates this evening. 3.1c here with some light rain but latest radar showing sleet to my north and east with snow on the preselis. The band is rapidly turning to snow in North Wales right now

[Snowmadsam]

Yes the preseli's will do very well out of this I feel and Whitland may be far enough east for snow also. I hope for more of these western corrections in NAE in updates this evening. 3.1c here with some light rain but latest radar showing sleet to my north and east with snow on the preselis. The band is rapidly turning to snow in North Wales right now

its getting heavier here keeping an ear out for the dreaded "R" word :o

[bradymk]

IT IS SNOWING IN LOGIN!

haha good! Wet snow? radar i just posted shows precip type currently.

[mikeocarroll]

can i expect to see snow here friday and saturday mike ? hay/glasbury area

Yes, almost certainly on Friday.

[bradymk]

its getting heavier here keeping an ear out for the dreaded "R" word

Just typed your location into google and your north of Whitland so you could see some wet snow for the next few hours. You and marcit got a lot better chance of seeing snow Friday aswell compared to me, Jonathan and BenB.

[benb]

Hehe...Login??

It will be interesting...radar says theres sleet but nothing falling from the sky....must tell mum not to wash the yard tomorrow...hahaha

I await the ECM

If it's going to snow anywhere in Pembrokeshire-- it's Login!

[FROZENFOOT]

Yes, almost certainly on Friday.

thanks day off work it is then.

[Snowmadsam]

Just typed your location into google and your north of Whitland so you could see some wet snow for the next few hours. You and marcit got a lot better chance of seeing snow Friday aswell compared to me, Jonathan and BenB.

Don't worry mate You wont be left out off the party I am sure

Go up to the mountains

All your snow dreams are there hehe

[mark24374]

Can confirm rain aberdaron.

[bradymk]

Very good and important comment from the south west thread, credit goes to @Iceberg for noticing it:

Yes he has a point here, flicking through I would say 50% of them show it further west but not quite as much as the GEM but better than the op for sure.

[Never snows where i live]

Im at postcode sa14 9 something working. Will it snow tonight cos im not from this area to be honest and could do with being snowed in. Thanks

[J10]

That'll be "clog" - mixture of cloud and fog

Much favoured by the NED model form Holland.

Some upgrades in model this afternoon compared to this morning, particular from GFS with 850Hpa much further west than previous runs.

NAE also not bad at all, a lot better than I feared last night.

The very marginal really perfectly sums this up.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Jackone

[snowy36]

The new fax charts are out and its getting very intresting for everyone in Wales, i think the far west will miss out to begin with but might get lucky later on in to saturday.

[Penfoel]

Freezing crust on puddles, ice on the car, some very dandruffy snow falling at this time of the evening but we are supposed to be warm here??? temp on our yard unknown as apparatus is wedi beni!

[keithlucky]

Both NAE and GFS further west and weaker precipitation .on east side of UK, need the trend to continue for all of south and west Wales coastal areas..

Edited January 16, 2013 by keithlucky

[georgiedre]

Snowing in caernarfon only light

[bradymk]

ECM also pushes things west slightly but its only evident when you compare yesterdays +72 to todays +48 because of time differences. Hardly much but little shifts.