Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.

[Mucka]

Re the 72h fax. It is not poor. Also bear in mind this is furthest Eastward extent of the 528 Dam line and it would be returning West from this point. As has been stated over and over the 850's are not the be all and end all for snow in these situations, there are many more factors.

[Cloud 10]

Forget about this weeks snow just give me this!

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3001.png

These types of charts have been building so im not surprised by this outlook from the 18Z.

Still unconvinced about the output for the rest of this week. Many are seeking snowfall which is understandable but I continue to have doubts how much progression any fronts will have. So if you live in the N&E don't get your hopes us just yet.

The end of the week will do me just fine.

edit.

updated 96 hr fax chart...

Edited January 15, 2013 by Cloud 10

[Mark Bayley]

The fax chart is not poor, while we have a south/south east flow then it will remain cold for snow, just look at the dewpoints on the GFS run (for 12pm and then 10pm). The dam line is not important

Edited January 15, 2013 by Mark Bayley

[Liam J]

The latest CFS mean temperature prediction for the next 10 days makes for interesting viewing with significantly below average values being progged, the cold is here to stay

[Downpour]

Re the 72h fax. It is not poor. Also bear in mind this is furthest Eastward extent of the 528 Dam line and it would be returning West from this point. As has been stated over and over the 850's are not the be all and end all for snow in these situations, there are many more factors.

Fair enough, I am looking at a IMBY POV, with Urban Heat Trapping to contend with etc etc, fearful of marginality.

[Tamara]

Current Friday 12:00 Fax:

Previous Friday 12:00 Fax:

That is a good measure of how things have changed over the last 24 hrs and to balance how things may also look tomorrow Hopefully the pendulum swings the other way. Its actually the t96 fax chart that illustrates better what I mean

Edited January 15, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Optimus Prime]

The latest CFS mean temperature prediction for the next 10 days makes for interesting viewing with significantly below average values being progged, the cold is here to stay

A classic cold British winter set-up there. Warmer than average over Greenland and south east Europe with that very cold concrete block in the middle. 1962/1963 anomaly;

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/climon/data/tgrid/1963/13.gif

[scottishandy]

I think the cold push back is quite strong, it really wants to break that front.

T96 rather different from T120 last night though, was that the one they modified to ECM/GFS?

[wednesburybaz]

as a relative newby on here im struggling with the inconsistencies on here

i read a page of posts and they say loads of snow then i scroll down and someone says no snow

i live in west midlands in a town called wednesbury

could someone please tell me what my chances are for snow and when we should start seeing this and how much approx

ive been in regional thread but its all way too inconsistent to understand

thanks in anticipation

[bluearmy]

Hands up who would have drawn the occlusion like that on the day 4 fax?

[If Wishes made Weather]

Just seen the 96hr FAX. Just unreal with an occlusion lying across the country (PPN presumably enhanced all along it) which has travelled north to get so far. Presumably as the low off Wales continues to travel SE it will pull this occlusion back ?

[Panayiotis]

The latest CFS mean temperature prediction for the next 10 days makes for interesting viewing with significantly below average values being progged, the cold is here to stay

Something I would like to add and that is there are warmer temps to the N/NW which is a signal for blocking in those areas, which I guess is why the CFS has the UK and Europe in the freezer. Edited January 15, 2013 by Panayiotis

[TEITS]

I know we all want to see snow but I do feel those worrying about whether it will be rain or snow is pointless. Just look at the difference between the updated +96 fax compared to yesterdays +120.

At the rate this is changing parts of Scotland could even see E,lys as LP continues to be pushed S and the HP becomes more influencial.

[stainesbloke]

Fair enough, I am looking at a IMBY POV, with Urban Heat Trapping to contend with etc etc, fearful of marginality.

Me too, hard enough to get daytime maxima below freezing here let alone more than 1cm of snow! Updated fax chart looks poor to me.

[Djdazzle]

Me too, hard enough to get daytime maxima below freezing here let alone more than 1cm of snow! Updated fax chart looks poor to me.

You are obviously not looking at the same chart as me. Daytime maxima below zero are unusual in this country, so yes it is hard to get them.

[hammerb32]

as a relative newby on here im struggling with the inconsistencies on here

i read a page of posts and they say loads of snow then i scroll down and someone says no snow

i live in west midlands in a town called wednesbury

could someone please tell me what my chances are for snow and when we should start seeing this and how much approx

ive been in regional thread but its all way too inconsistent to understand

thanks in anticipation

[Geordiesnow]

I know we all want to see snow but I do feel those worrying about whether it will be rain or snow is pointless. Just look at the difference between the updated +96 fax compared to yesterdays +120.

At the rate this is changing parts of Scotland could even see E,lys as LP continues to be pushed S and the HP becomes more influencial.

I noticed the Scandi high is becoming more influential in the outputs as the days have gone by once again, its one of those height rises which on the eye may look weak but its actually quite strong and its certainly dictating the weather patterns at the moment and its helping most of the country to stay in the cold air!

There is certainly going to be some snowfall in the forecasts for the end of the week but where is just too hard to tell at the moment.

[Cloud 10]

Hands up who would have drawn the occlusion like that on the day 4 fax?

120 fax

More changes to come in the next few days.

Looks like the met have stuck with their own model for the faxes which seems as

good a plan as any!

Edited January 15, 2013 by Cloud 10

[hammerb32]

In short at present the west mids looks to be in line for significant snow on friday, all subject to change at this stage though.

[WhiteFox]

I think alot of people aren't realising that if this all pans out to the severity that is shown then its going to something truly epic and possibly comparable to some of the worst winters of the last century for the UK. Maybe Joe laminate floori and Piers Corbyn have it spot on. Alot of people mock Joe but he was pretty accurate for the UK in Winter 2009/2010 and some extent 2010/2011.

To be fair to Joe Laminate Flooring, even a stopped clock is right twice a day! I'm not worried by disruption potential. People seem to think that because everyone uses a bit of snow as an excuse to take a day off work they would do the same if it lasted for two weeks. Not true, but let's hope the models are on to something as it would be interesting to find out!

[Liam J]

Anyone following Ian F on Twitter will now know that the UKMET now favour a more progressive solution by the end of the week, perhaps he'll pop in here if he's got time.

Still lots to firm up on in the next few days!

[LomondSnowstorm]

I know we all want to see snow but I do feel those worrying about whether it will be rain or snow is pointless. Just look at the difference between the updated +96 fax compared to yesterdays +120.

At the rate this is changing parts of Scotland could even see E,lys as LP continues to be pushed S and the HP becomes more influencial.

Pub run pretty much does actually on Saturday:

compared to even the 00Z GFS today:

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

Anyone following Ian F on Twitter will now know that the UKMET now favour a more progressive solution by the end of the week, perhaps he'll pop in here if he's got time.

Still lots to firm up on in the next few days!

don't think he said they favour it but listed it as an option. looks less likely from models tonight.

[Paul_1978]

Anyone following Ian F on Twitter will now know that the UKMET now favour a more progressive solution by the end of the week, perhaps he'll pop in here if he's got time.

Still lots to firm up on in the next few days!

Progressive if you live in the south west perhaps. Beyond that, ie further north and east, should stay on the 'right' side of the boundary between cold and less cold air.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Anyone following Ian F on Twitter will now know that the UKMET now favour a more progressive solution by the end of the week, perhaps he'll pop in here if he's got time.

Still lots to firm up on in the next few days!

Yes points out that there model is saying snow moving east and turning back to rain in West Country, so a brief rest bite in southwest , South Wales ? Who knows, but I'm pretty confindent it will only be the far west in any milder air.