Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.

[swfc]

wheres mr I-F with an update lol.Just a point looking at the o6z,anyone looking for a breakdown will end up going mad.stick to 96-120 hrs

[Thunder Snow]

Nice to see has brought it that bit further east, bringing more of the UK into play for the end of the week

[phil nw.]

Quite exciting-if you are a cold lover- to see the models firming up on a notable snow event as we get closer.No real signs of any modification this morning to the cold or snow to come within the next 48-72hrs.

Just for fun here`s 2 nice images from the 06z GFS at T60hrs.

they will likely change a little but this looks to be a widespread and signifcant event for many with several hours of snowfall likely in some locations.

Looking into next week at the 00z 850hPa means from the 00z runs and still looking cold at T168hrs(day 7)

uppers around -3 to -6C with low surface temps this cold is here for a while it seems.

My 00z 850hPa and 2mtr temps. ens

I think they say it all-bitter!---GFS Op looks a mild run in the later stages too!

Edited January 16, 2013 by phil n.warks.

[Methuselah]

Little point looking at the rest of this run.

At +144 a massive difference with regards to that LP near Greenland compared to the UKMO/ECM which hold it much further W.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png

So I shall accept the part of the 06Z run that gives me what I want and ignore the rest.

Good thinking Batman!

How unusual it is, that it's the near-term that has all the characteristics of FI!

[SMU]

Just for clarifty the 06z is a poor run usually past 120 with its polar height modelling & eastward bias-

Sub t72 its a standard GFS run-

the 06z has snow for LONDON for 24 hours solid backed up by -5c for the CENTRE of town overnight with minima much much lower in rural areas-

the snowline today seems to be where it has always been- in the SW corner across bristol into south wales & along the southern coastal counties....

S

[Methuselah]

This may be unrelated to model-watching (and will therefore probably be deleted) but, if the severity of the potential snow is as predicted, surely the Met Office should be upgrading their alerts. In my area they are forecasting light snow on Friday and nothing on Saturday

I'm sure they will, given time. They need to gather and analyse all the data before they do the necessary updating. They can't just react instantly to raw data, like we can...

[-uksnow-]

I'm sure they will, given time. They need to gather and analyse all the data before they do the necessary updating. They can't just react instantly to raw data, like we can...

I F replied to a tweet where I asked the same question, they will be updAting and expanding warnings around midday.

[swfc]

Just for clarifty the 06z is a poor run usually past 120 with its polar height modelling & eastward bias-

Sub t72 its a standard GFS run-

the 06z has snow for LONDON for 24 hours solid backed up by -5c for the CENTRE of town overnight with minima much much lower in rural areas-

the snowline today seems to be where it has always been- in the SW corner across bristol into south wales & along the southern coastal counties....

S

you dont see the snow extending across the uk then steve???sorry did you mean transition line Edited January 16, 2013 by swfc

[Spanner]

Nick...just want to say a big thanks for continuing to post here even though you are not in the Uk but give your opinions to help us all. Cheers:)

[Troubleatmill]

you dont see the snow extending across the uk then steve???sorry did you mean transition line

Prety sure he meant snowline as in areas south and west of this area (bristol) are too borderline for snow or settling snow, 06z has it uk wide apart from this, wont say great!! as there are people down that way, such as s4lancia, but definatley more widespread rather than a stalling front for the west.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Nick JB

[mulzy]

Superb ECM London ensembles

[the lad sharp]

Yep just off the phone, frost and then high thin cloud for Warwickshire, sorry this time, AT LEAST it will be cold though.

BFTP

I take it that you are pulling my proverbial!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I'm sure they will, given time. They need to gather and analyse all the data before they do the necessary updating. They can't just react instantly to raw data, like we can...

Were you the spoilsport Pete, it was meant very lightheartedly

BFTP

I take it that you are pulling my proverbial!

Absolutely!! You look in prime position

BFTP

[Tim Bland]

I see the NAE is still adimant about bringing light snow east across most parts tommorow before the big event on Fri. I expect it will be mainly light and patchy but it would be very unusual for the NAE to be wrong 3 runs in a row and now only 24 hrs away. Could be some serious snow laying by this time next week with 30cm drifts in places... Get those camera batteries ready, this could be a very memorable event and dont waste it hunting for the breakdown!

Re below post of you check the Metoffice site the warnings have already been extended to cover almost the whole country. I expect them to put orange and reds soon around the SW Midlands and East wales.

And as if by magic....

Edited January 16, 2013 by Tim Bland

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I F replied to a tweet where I asked the same question, they will be updAting and expanding warnings around midday.

Indeed as it probably still isn't nailed yet, and may see more upgrade/downgrades of warnings for locations tonight/tomorrow too

BFTP

[Tim Bland]

As per my above post...............

[trisnow]

nothing on there site ????

?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=3

I'm a little confused as reading this model thread the general idea I get is that the snow is gonna be quite west based and unsure as to whether it spreads to the far East? Is that correct? Is it just the latest 06 run that has shown it going East?

[swfc]

?

http://www.metoffice...ings.html?day=3

I'm a little confused as reading this model thread the general idea I get is that the snow is gonna be quite west based and unsure as to whether it spreads to the far East? Is that correct? Is it just the latest 06 run that has shown it going East?

sorry missed the update!the snow will be widespread across most of the uk

[loadsa]

?

http://www.metoffice...ings.html?day=3

I'm a little confused as reading this model thread the general idea I get is that the snow is gonna be quite west based and unsure as to whether it spreads to the far East? Is that correct? Is it just the latest 06 run that has shown it going East?

And me

The Net Weather forcast goes right against the met office they are poles apart. Net Weather are saying 21% chance of snow and met office are saying batten down the hatches (imby to be honest). So what charts are everybody using, because it is obvious they are not the same

Edited January 16, 2013 by loadsa

[karyo]

As per my above post...............

This looks dreamy to me! My location is under orange warning for once!

[Frosty.]

It now looks like heavy snow and gales will be sweeping across the uk on friday with 15 to 25 cm (more on hills) and severe drifting (blizzard like conditions) with high windchill, then there is a lull on saturday but more snow then spreading north and east. The Ecm 00z shows another reload of very cold air from the northeast by the middle of next week but the Gfs 06z flattens the pattern by mid next week with the weather becoming much less cold but just like yesterday with the 6z, I don't think the cold block will be going anywhere and if it does relax it's vice like grip, reinforcements from the north and northeast will come to the rescue. So, to sum up, probably the most severe spell for several years is going to hit the uk on friday, followed by a cold wintry weekend and continuing cold next week with more severe frosts and snow at times, especially in the n and e, the far west and southwest probably less cold with rain/sleet.

[Richie V]

I often ask myself why I love severe gales and atlantic zonality! Really guys, looks like an epic 2 weeks plus for snow and some very low night time temps. we could have not asked for more, better than 12 degrees and drizzle innit. I suspect, going off current output there will be no trees putting out early blossom this year like last.

All I ask is that folks look out for the birds, 2 to 3 weeks sub zero is tough if your a sparrow, give em a water source n some fatballs!

[Glacier Point]

I think we need to start to plan contingencies for a potentially sustained and very severe spell of wintry weather, of which Friday could just be the start.

NWP is presenting a number of potential snow events next week, which could well provide substantive accumulations.

The longwave trough migrating eastwards off the eastern coast of North America is consistently being modelled by ensemble means as cutting through a developing mid Atlantic ridge mid to late next week. That provides an eddy in the flow which is likely to enhance the easterly flow off an already frigid land mass to our east and north-east.

Thereafter, the ridge could retrogress towards the NE Atlantic and Greenland bring in another surge of Arctic air from the NE. That would give us a sustained period (with snowcover for much of the UK) of below normal temperatures.

I've grabbed the 06z GEFS at day 13 which depicts the synoptic pattern with a trough firmly ensconsed over Europe and high pressure to the north.

[Summer Sun]

This weekend has the potential to be very wintry for all but the far south west and Ireland

Maybe something for our Irish folk next week?

[Man With Beard]

Just seen full GFS London ensembles (sorry cant post as on phone) - one word, sensational. The mean 850 stays -5 or below for 10 DAYS. And though snow predictions by raw GFS not to be treated as gospel, a high snow chance is given for those 10 days with no let up whatsoever.