Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.

[Ian Ballinger]

Isn't that the old one

[Jimmy0127]

Well - I'm liking the sound of that. :-) Not unexpected - observational history suggests that computer models tend to underestimate the power of a block. Where are you seeing the NAE? Hasnt updated on weatheronline yet... EDIT - yes it has. Definite westward adjustment. The folks in Devon better get up at 0600 and open their curtains: it may snow down there after all...

GFS 06z has been doing this since the first identification of this spell - overestimating the strength of the Atlantic. I would put money on the 12z GFS pushing the front more in alignment with NAE.

[manutdmatt1986]

Poor NAE overall not as far east and precip alot weaker

This run only goes out to 12pm on Friday. If we could see the next few frames it would probably show an absolute snow fest.

[A.J]

Poor NAE overall not as far east and precip alot weaker

A bit of a daft post TBH and absolutley reeking of IMBYism....Please use the model mayhem thread for posts of this nature, or better still, your own regional...ta!

Edited January 16, 2013 by ajpoolshark

[bluearmy]

12z nae seems to dig the trough to our west a bit further south. dont worry about the precip - thats good news

[Methuselah]

So the all-important question is: will the GFS12Z be the 'Big One', the 'Mother Of All Models' - or will it make all of us look like a bunch of Comical Alis???

[Cloud 10]

The 12z GME for Friday,did someone order a slider?

[swfc]

Id leave the position,speed and snow amounts alone for at least 24 hours.Not worth contemplating at the moment given the size of the uk!!!

[Barry12]

So the all-important question is: will the GFS12Z be the 'Big One', the 'Mother Of All Models' - or will it make all of us look like a bunch of Comical Alis???

no, the GFS is the 'Daddy bear'

[snowmadchrisuk]

Poor NAE overall not as far east and precip alot weaker

Your talking from a Leicester point of view there, Extending things further West is a good sign , as it means the milder air is further away from the UK, trust me that front will reach Leicester easy , besides the Nae only goes up until 12pm Friday , By 18z Friday , Leicester will be getting plastered . All in all a good NAE as more areas would get to see something out of it .

[Harsh Climate]

Better run for south west england and wales so far, colder air a fair bit further west than 6z

Precipitation also further west though

Edited January 16, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[Harsh Climate]

Thankfully the heavy precipitation reaches my back garden, so we can all relax now..

Edited January 16, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[MKN]

Both NAE and gfs further west and weaker wrt precip. Still looking good for many though

[patrickshere]

Snow for (virtually) all.

[Continental Climate]

Look at that lovely rotation eastwards on the 12z by 60hrs http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn601.png!!

[Timmytour]

It's not too late for the Atlantic to storm through against all expectations and make this an overall mild and reasonably forgettable winter in terms of actual weather.

But even if it did that, and we didn't, in years to come, talk about this winter as containing one of the most memorable spells in recent times (maybe even exceeding Dec 2010), in terms of the models it is sure to be a "classic".... a year about which the models, what they were showing and how they performed will be talked about for years nd years to come. i know I will be telling my children and my children's children about them and the spectacular runs they sometimes produced. Especially the CMA

In fact I've already started trying to tell my children but they just call me a sad miserable git!!!

Edited January 16, 2013 by Timmytour

[swfc]

seriously id ignore the precipitation amounts and progression until tom.100 miles plus either way is easily within reach even at t-6hrs!!stick to the wider synoptics to avoid mental meltdown

[tropical madness]

Heres an additional model to look at. The Norwegian hi-res (or is it the HIRLAM that they use??) has the precip spreading further east. Looking forward to whatever happens!

[lord stratus]

It's not too late for the Atlantic to storm through against all expectations and make this an overall mild and reasonably forgettable winter in terms of actual weather.

But even if it did that, and we didn't, in years to come, talk about this winter as containing one of the most memorable spells in recent times (maybe even exceeding Dec 2010), in terms of the models it is sure to be a "classic".... a year about which the models, what they were showing and how they performed will be talked about for years nd years to come. i know I will be telling my children and my children's children about them and the spectacular runs they sometimes produced. Especially the CMA

In fact I've already started trying to tell my children but they just call me a sad miserable git!!!

Why would you want to discuss with your children, charts that have been misleading in 2013? And your children's children!!!

[Met4Cast]

Heres an additional model to look at. The Norwegian hi-res (or is it the HIRLAM that they use??) has the precip spreading further east. Looking forward to whatever happens!

Have you got the link to that model please?

[jimbo36]

the first line of their weather warning states 'As the weather breaks down.. ', I think thats where the question arose as that simple sentence is quite misleading.

As the current dry weather breaks down , do people have to be drip fed?

Edited January 16, 2013 by jimbo36

[Gowon]

UKMO is further West as well at 48h

[bbtablet]

snowwonder - did you notice this from that extract you quoted?

" If the snow does eventuate, there is 40-50% probability of accumulations of up to 10cm's."

Since when was "eventuate" a word in the English language?!

(sorry not "on-task" or "on-topic", but really!)

[TEITS]

I think its worth mentioning at this point that whatever the models show parts of say W Midlands will always see more snowfall than E Midlands/E Anglia because the front is bound to weaken as it pushes NE. At this moment in time im not convinced the front will consist of heavy snowfall anyway with only light/moderate snowfall as it moves NE. Still with temps, dewpoints below freezing this will help with regards to accumulations.

Besides come Friday it will be a case of radar watching anyway.

[tropical madness]

Daniel - still a beginner with this forum so not sure how to reply. Heres the link http://www.yr.no/kart/#lat=65.00146&lon=19.54158&zoom=4&laga=nedb%C3%B8rskyer&proj=3575