Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Metoffice have warnings out for sat and Sunday for pretty much the whole country

now

thats for ice on my app they havnt updated since 14.00

[michail]

ECM T48 850's nice

T72

I think we'll have a very cold run coming up, those lows to the south of GL look like they're gonna shoot SE!

[ChartViewer]

ECM T96 Keeping us cold...nice block to the north

Edited January 16, 2013 by ChartViewer

[bluearmy]

looking at the sequence of FAXES over the past 24 hours, my eye is taken by the shortwave dropping into ne scandi around T72. given the recent trend to drop the shortwaves further south into france and pull in an easterly plus the slow retrogression of the 'block' to our north i am wondering if we do see a break in the atlantic trough, could a better retrogression of the blocking bring that shortwave into play from the ne ??

[phil nw.]

One or two posts straying off model discussion.

If you want to talk generally about the cold and snow please go here

http://forum.netweat...moaning-thread/

Let`s not clutter this thread up with general chat.

Thanks all.

Edited January 16, 2013 by phil n.warks.

[Continental Climate]

very nice ECM 96 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013011612/ECH1-96.GIF?16-0!! A nice straight easterly there keeping uk locked in the freezer and pumping snow into the east!!

[TEITS]

At +96 this is even better than the UKMO in my opinion.

[danm]

What do the experienced members make of the latest faxes?

t48:

t60

t72:

[snowking]

These are warnings for ice, not snow, and came out earlier today (unless my met office page is behind). I don't expect they will put out a warning for snow on Sat/Sun this far ahead, probably tomorrow when they have a higher level of certainty.

In all fairness to the OP, they do mention the risk of a further 5cm of snow as the fronts slowly fizzle out across Central and Eastern areas

Obviously a response to what we have seen on the +60 to +72 FAX

SK

[Cloud 10]

ECM at +96,probably need to order in more valium for the met-office..

[swfc]

fantastic ecm at 120 hrs and slightly diff from the 12z!

[shawng]

Your right guys. My apologies

[Supacell]

very nice ECM 96 http://www.meteociel...CH1-96.GIF?16-0!! A nice straight easterly there keeping uk locked in the freezer and pumping snow into the east!!

At +96 this is even better than the UKMO in my opinion.

http://www.meteociel...CM1-96.GIF?16-0

And if at 120 that low to the west heads SE and sits in the channel it would bring prolonged snow to some in the south and relentless snow showers off the North Sea a long way inland across the north and the Midlands

[Panayiotis]

Anyone notice the ECM at 120hrs! Very nice with the low probably taking the channel as a path, which should mean an easterly bringing in those cold uppers from Europe with the dp fairly low too, snow is a real possibility!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Anyone notice the ECM at 120hrs! Very nice with the low probably taking the channel as a path, which should mean an easterly bringing in those cold uppers from Europe with the dp fairly low too, snow is a real possibility!

I think eastern Scotland and northeast England might start to catch up with the rest of you pretty quickly with charts like that...

And this:

Watch out to the northeast:

Edited January 16, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[Panayiotis]

What do the experienced members make of the latest faxes?

t48:

t60

t72:

Front stalling across Cardiff (my area on the first chart), with the 528dam line just in front and a SE flow bringing v.cold dew points means anywhere 30miles west and east of the front will have snow, then at 72hrs it backs west as the cold reasserts itself (as it does so areas behind and infront of the front (30-40miles) would have snow), I would say Midland/Wales and parts of the SW are very likely to see accumulations of snow.

Also there is another weaker occluded front approaching Norfolk which would produce snow showers around the area, and this is forecast to clear south east on Saturday.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Panayiotis

[swfc]

ecm at 144 is a classic set up and screams heavy snow

[Continental Climate]

Good lord!!! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013011612/ECH1-144.GIF!! Colossal upgrade on the ECM!! People if this run verifies then you will no longer have to dream what it would be like to experience a 47, you would actually be living it!!!!!!!

[Frosty.]

Thanks Phil, the GFS loves to smash the jet through with associated height rises over Southern Europe and it's OP stands alone tonight as we wait for the ECM.

It's been a generally poor episode for the GFS.

Nice to see you being positive about cold

It looks like the very cold spell will continue, the jet will be further south than the gfs op runs have shown today, the ukmo or similar is the way ahead with lots more snow after the blizzards on friday.

[swfc]

at 168 hrs there looks to be a north easterly looming.still looking fantastic

[pages]

ecm at 144 is a classic set up and screams heavy snow

If verified as shown will the far south be rain with only -2 uppers or would the lying snow from Saturday and associated cold dp and surface cold mean snow

[Summer Sun]

Some amazing charts for North east England and NE Scotland from ECM tonight, December 2010 eat your heart out!

Edited January 16, 2013 by Gavin.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

What do the experienced members make of the latest faxes?

t48:

t60

t72:

Panay that tells me is you have the main low to our southwest , then the small feature is an area of snow that gets ejected from the main low, therefore taking snow to the more northeastern areas, while the low to the south keeps a consistent snow zone , (to be 24hrs of continuous snowfall I believe.)

Edited January 16, 2013 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[CWT2012]

Army will be on standby and a national state of emergency called if the ECM 144 comes off, incredible chart

[phil nw.]

Yes ECM is seriously wintery-snow- bitter cold with winds going into the east later just renewing the cold uppers across much of the UK.

a similar evolution to the UK and GEM with the lows going under and a pattern that is gradually moving towards a classic longer cold spell.A world away from the 12z GFS Op. next week.