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Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Channel low?

24 Hours of Blizzards?

This could be a special guys!

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Continental Climate Aficionado

Continental Climate

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

great looking NH view as well http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013011612/ECH1-168.GIF?16-0, strat warming kicking in big style, Chio must be looking on and weeping with joy!!

Strangely quiet in here for such an awesome run!!

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted

great looking NH view as well http://www.meteociel...H1-168.GIF?16-0, strat warming kicking in big style, Chio must be looking on and weeping with joy!!

Strangely quiet in here for such an awesome run!!

I think most people are worn out lol, I'm only just starting to get excited cool.png haha

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Joker Newbie

Joker

Posted
  • Location: Lewes, East Sussex
  • Location: Lewes, East Sussex
Posted (edited)

That looks ominous! Almost 'The Day After Tomorrow'. help.gif

ECM just fantastic.

Recm1442.gif

Edited by Joker
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Been through and hidden/moved quite few posts containing questions that, although perfectly fine in their own right, have very little relevance to this thread...Please try and post into the appropriate threads; not only will that reduce the amount of clutter, at this already very busy time, it'll give your questions a better chance of being answered...good.gif

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Mini tiger Newbie

Mini tiger

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth
  • Location: Weymouth
Posted

Can anyone confirm if this fax means it will be rain over the UK on Sunday away from North East Scotland ? The Damn 528 line is off the east coast and strong southerlies will see temps at the surface increasing. In fact ive just checked the met o outlook 3-5 dayer and it says snow on friday then milder weather.

Is that it then ? 1 day of snow, then a thaw and rain.

post-19217-0-18895500-1358361914_thumb.p

Now i know the ECM 12z is showing a colder prospect again on tuesday but will we have lost the cold pool over us by then.

making any precipitation marginal south of he m4 ?

I've read some posters SMurr i think talking of -20oC and snow fields - is that based on the fact the fax charts are wrong. Having read

from the professionals here - Eye in the sky - that they are one of the most accurate/reliable.

Have I got this right as im still learning, or are we in for a weekend of snow ?

Any help appreciated thanks.

Lottie.

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ChartViewer Apprentice

ChartViewer

Posted
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf
Posted (edited)

ECM T192...So much long term potential...wow

ECH1-192.GIF?16-0

ECH0-192.GIF

T216....Blimey....whats that vortex eyeing us up!

ECH0-216.GIF?16-0

Edited by ChartViewer
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Continental Climate Aficionado

Continental Climate

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Fed up with easterlies? Lets have a northerly instead http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif!! ECM sharing the love tonite!!

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Cumulonimbus Tower Apprentice

Cumulonimbus Tower

Posted
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem
Posted (edited)

The thing that strikes me most about the ECm 192h chart. Thats the one for over a week away clapping.gif is that the atlantis still looks like it has just run out of steam and can offer no meaningful attack on the cold block established over NW Europe.... good.gif

Edited by Cumulonimbus Tower
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weatherguy Aficionado

weatherguy

Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
Posted

What makes these charts so much more staggering is that these are not just one off snowy breakdowns that will thaw afterwards...

We have a huge event progged for Friday and over the weekend, followed by a new injection of cold air, then we have the continued trend of LP being sent under the block bringing us the next possible blizzard, before getting very cold again - rinse and repeat! Because it's so cold, snow will simply stack up after each dumping (in favoured locations), which could bring some mindboggling snow accumulations after the next week or so. The ECM shows this once again and we have reasonable cross model support (the GFS outlier can be binned [for now] by my reckoning due to the sheer weight of other models going to other solutions).

Yes my friends, the ramp is well and truly out now; I can't resist it any longer!!! smiliz39.gif

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

Panay that tells me is you have the main low to our southwest , then the small feature is an area of snow that gets ejected from the main low, therefore taking snow to the more northeastern areas, while the low to the south keeps a consistent snow zone , (to be 24hrs of continuous snowfall I believe.)

Yes that's right.
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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

ecm would produce some very low night temps if the winds slacken .great snow cover and zero sign of anything mild

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

These snowy upgrades are amazing, yesterday the models where ramptastic but they are even better today, even more severe and it looks like a locked in pattern with attacks from between east and north..EPICcold.gifcold.gifcold.gifcold.gifdrunk.gifclap.gif the uk will be looking like narnia by the end of friday and no thaw in sight.

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Huh ECM hasn't got the coldest uppers but would it matter?

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stratty Aficionado

stratty

Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
Posted

Some amazing charts for North east England and NE Scotland from ECM tonight, December 2010 eat your heart out!

ECM1-120.GIF?16-0

ECM1-144.GIF?16-0

ECM1-168.GIF?16-0

Not just the north.........a countrywide massive weather event!

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Chris D Apprentice

Chris D

Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow, Thunderstorms & Summer Plumes
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk
Posted

It's come back to THAT ECM again lol

Incredible Euro charts. The no doubt feet of snow that would fall, would last for a loooooooooooong time on this run!

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Continental Climate Aficionado

Continental Climate

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Thank god for the 216 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013011612/ECH1-216.GIF?16-0!! I think by then we will all need a break dry but cold that chart, nice winter sunshine!drinks.gif

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Very little to add that what has already been said.

What is clear from the 12Zs is the GFS seems lonely tonight yet again. The UKMO/ECM both suggest another spell of snow on Mon/Tues and then its a case of looking NE.

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Long haul to mild Community Regular

Long haul to mild

Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
Posted

Can anyone confirm if this fax means it will be rain over the UK on Sunday away from North East Scotland ? The Damn 528 line is off the east coast and strong southerlies will see temps at the surface increasing. In fact ive just checked the met o outlook 3-5 dayer and it says snow on friday then milder weather.

Is that it then ? 1 day of snow, then a thaw and rain.

post-19217-0-18895500-1358361914_thumb.p

Now i know the ECM 12z is showing a colder prospect again on tuesday but will we have lost the cold pool over us by then.

making any precipitation marginal south of he m4 ?

I've read some posters SMurr i think talking of -20oC and snow fields - is that based on the fact the fax charts are wrong. Having read

from the professionals here - Eye in the sky - that they are one of the most accurate/reliable.

Have I got this right as im still learning, or are we in for a weekend of snow ?

Any help appreciated thanks.

Lottie.

Hi Lottie

The FAX chart you show is last night's 120 chart and will be updated again later this evening. I suspect it will show a better picture for snow, although the chart you posted was still very good.

I'm not a big expert but as I understand it, the 528 DAM line is not so important in set ups like this, where frontal snow is forecast to meet cold uppers.

The ECM tonight is a very snowy chart and I don't think marginality would be an issue there.

I'm sure someone far more knowledgeable than me will correct me if I'm wrong, but it all looks good to me!

Exciting times to be model watching!

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