Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.

[swfc]

At 90 hrs very little change between the 06z and 12z which some may find odd lol.

[Timmytour]

Why would you want to discuss with your children, charts that have been misleading in 2013? And your children's children!!!

i didn't say that what I would tell them would in praise of the models!! I'd be telling them what I'd seen and not necessarily experienced! And January 2013 will stand out not just for the model eye candy, but for the huge range of solutions run not just between different models but by different consecutive runs of the same model. it's been fascinating watching.

Anyway....in reality i hope more to be relaying what the actual weather was like to my children's children! But by the time they come along it might be stuff they see on a regular basis anyway :-)

[Continental Climate]

Looks to be a much colder run so far for the WHOLE country http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn902.png!! The 850 line skirts the uk perfectly including NI as well

Hows this for a southerly tracking jet http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10215.png!! could get very wet in morrocco

Edited January 16, 2013 by Continental Climate

[mountain shadow]

At 90 hrs very little change between the 06z and 12z which some may find odd lol.

Disagree, the 12z is slower at bringing in the precipitation and tilted better to draw in the colder dew points. You can see this clearly on the NI charts where the 6Z had rain where as the 12z now has the snow backing west into eastern Ulster.

[TEITS]

That will do me from the UKMO.

Far better +96 chart from the UKMO compared to the GFS.

Look at the angle of the LP!

[mountain shadow]

That will do me from the UKMO.

http://www.meteociel...2-594.GIF?16-16

Far better +96 chart from the UKMO compared to the GFS.

http://www.meteociel...96-21.GIF?16-17

Look at the angle of the LP!

There both still excellent, the GFS just less good but still cold.

It's great when we can argue about different sizes of cold rather than mild/cold.

[swfc]

Disagree, the 12z is slower at bringing in the precipitation and tilted better to draw in the colder dew points. You can see this clearly on the NI charts where the 6Z had rain where as the 12z now has the snow backing west into eastern Ulster.

sigh!!i wasnt really commenting on precipitation more of a larger scale feature

[Panayiotis]

According to the GFS we may see another snow event around 108hrs with low surface temps and low dew points, and with that shortwave producing prcipitation, it will likely to be snow except for the far SW.

[bluearmy]

gfs 00z and 12z have both disrupted the first trough and are slower with the second one. gfs 06z was different. which one do you think is right ?

as dave says, prefer the ukmo with its easterly and higher precip

[weather eater]

As the UKMO appears to be the market leader at the mo it would be brave to bet against it for Mon into Tues, both it and the GFS are cold but the UKMO is a far more potent affair.

[tropical madness]

Met Office SWW

[warrenb]

To be honest GFS has taken nearly a week to figure this out, so I would stick with the Meto GEM and ECM for now.

[Continental Climate]

could our high be sinking back into europe http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png? Anyway fi so not too much to worry about atm

Not according to the UKMO at 120 it aint http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013011612/UN120-21.GIF?16-17

Edited January 16, 2013 by Continental Climate

[TEITS]

Yet another exceptional UKMO run with more snowfall potential.

Have to ask how realistic is the GFS at +96 with that mega LP at 930mb? The UKMO isn't anywhere near as deep.

[Continental Climate]

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?16-17!! Excellent from the rock solid UKMO heights building just where we want them, what a difference to the gfs of the same time frame!!

Although that is two gfs outputs that have pushed our block away by 144-150 so cant be totally discounted, anyway lots to look forward between now and then

LOL dont look at gfs 168 its a horror show

Edited January 16, 2013 by Continental Climate

[swfc]

Very progressive 12z for sure and out of kilter with the ukmo.ecm may be the leveler here and somewhere inbetween

[Panayiotis]

UKMO sticking with the cold all the way to 144hrs giving us a channel low with heavy snow for the south, combined with the easterly dragging in cold uppers from Europe it will feel bitter!

[weather eater]

I don’t expect the GFS to continually throw out blinding runs, and as for trends I’ve lost count of the number of trends, half trends and left turns the GFS has pitched this last week and a half, I don’t expect that to change.

[Andrew snow hope]

UKMO sticking with the cold all the way to 144hrs giving us a channel low with heavy snow for the south, combined with the easterly dragging in cold uppers from Europe it will feel bitter!

Is that Heavy snow for the South comment about this Friday or later in the runn?

[Davey80]

Probably both days for northern parts of cse

[SnowJoke]

Is that Heavy snow for the South comment about this Friday or later in the runn?

Monday 22nd of Jan, so early next week after friday / sat snow event..

[swfc]

Is that Heavy snow for the South comment about this Friday or later in the runn?

its at 144 hrs

[SomeLikeItHot]

GFS is nothing if not consistent.

Consistently saying for the last week that the block will last for another 120-144 hours and then collapse. It will eventually be right I am sure, but the question is when?

[gpspete]

Have you got the link to that model please?

http://www.yr.no/kart/#lat=55.69486&lon=1.09601&zoom=4&laga=nedb%C3%B8rskyer&proj=3575

and there data is from http://www.met.no/English/Weather_forecast/

[snowking]

GFS being overprogressive....how refreshing

UKMO, meanwhile, holds firm again

I must say after the December debacle I was ready to bin the UKMO, but its redeemed itself big time of late. Its beginning to make me wonder if the only reason the GFS was the first to pick up on the December failure was simply because it was being its usual self and overdeveloping LP wherever it saw fit, and that this accidentally became the reality.

Anyway, still general agreement on a further unsuccessful atlantic attack towards Sunday/Monday, and thats as far as I'm willing to look realistically for now.

GFS really is covering itself in shame at the moment with continuous chopping and changing.

Current verification:

UKMO leads the way overall, the clear winner at 0z, neck and neck with the ECMWF at 12z.

SK

Edited January 16, 2013 by snowking