South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 15/01/13 12z---->

[Bristawl Si]

To everyone posting "will it snow imby?" just keep watching, reading, listening.

It WILL change over the next 48 hours

By "it" i mean the detail of EXACTLY where and when.

the M4 Corridor at least.

Arghhhhh!!!

Dont swear in here!!

[A.J]

To save any possible misinterptetation of social networking posts/tweets etc, it's probably best to let the original author to post them if he/she feels neccessary to, in this particuar case, no doubt Ian will update the thread on the latest news when he gets chance

[Dave Kightley]

going to far n.e now..... why does it always gooo wrong. dn

[Andy Bown]

I would love this week's weather set up and the year still be 2013 but with the lack of internet from the 80s!

Then we could all just watch tv forecasts, hope and wonder, and get (hopefully) a real treat on Friday!

[Sainsbo]

Seems like Wilts may still be a good place for some snow on Friday, let's just hope that some of the others in here can get some too! Seeing as that is still 3 days away, I'm not looking into it too much. That way I can't get annoyed if it changes.

-3.3C here, feeling very cold outside.

[BARRY]

we go on about this snow, but what about the amount of rain we will get have we got any idea how much we can expect as this is going to impact on the already swollen rivers and streams.

[Frosty_wsm]

Run the WBFL charts onto the next couple of frames and it edges that bit further north east.

So I agree that it Gloucs. & Wiltshire are still in a good position based solely on the GFS, but in can also see support regarding Ian's tweet with PPN turning to rain from the South West as far up as the M4 Corridor at least.

Detail like this will no doubt change over the next 72 hours anyway.

Yep I hope the detail does change, bit stronger hp to the north east, lp out west pushed a tad further south west, we need to keep those south easterly winds god dammit lol

[isleofwightsnowgal]

Very very optimistic after seeing south today weather and the met office warning for iow! I'll be 'bitterly' disappointed if this doesn't come off for us now!

[tomhow]

Very cold and clear in Southampton tonight - perfect for a spot of astrophotography

Currently -2C in the observatory.

Friday morning looking very interesting and very complicated! I don't think we'll have a clear picture until tomorrows 12z... I wonder if/when the meto will upgrade their yellow snow to orange snow!?

[AWD]

Nice updated forecast IMBY;

Wish I could bank that now.

[BristolBlizzard]

from matts twitter

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81

Remarkably the 12z EC ENS mean supports the ECM model at 120hr and 144hr with a particularly cold and wintry theme continuing Sun/Mon

[Mumbles]

I have to drive to Swindon on Thursday...do u experts think its safe to do so...don't want any snow on my travels x

[isleofwightsnowgal]

And......met office just changed iow from light snow to heavy snow fri pm wooooo surely this can't go the way of the pear now?!

[Karl83]

Evening all. For those in the Bristol area - Metoffice shows Filton as having snow from 12 noon Friday all the way through to 1800 Saturday. Let's av iiiit! :-)

[Sainsbo]

I have to drive to Swindon on Thursday...do u experts think its safe to do so...don't want any snow on my travels x

We're only down for light snow here in Swindon, although we seem to be in the right place here to see something. I'm in no way an expert, but I'd give it a day or so before you make up your mind, as things are likely to change more.

[Mark Parsons]

Long way off, but some very low minimum temps next week and this is at lunch time! Maximums are well below freezing.

Very interesting model watching over next few days to see how things pan out

Very unlikely!!

[AWD]

Based on the ECM, this is the position of the PPN band at midday on Friday;

And of this PPN, this is where it wil be falling as snow;

Suggestive of rain over Devon, Cornwall and into southern Somerset by midday Friday. By 18:00, the PPN band will have all but cleared the region, leaving behind some patchy, showery PPN;

[gottolovethisweather]

I have to drive to Swindon on Thursday...do u experts think its safe to do so...don't want any snow on my travels x

Thursday is fine at this stage, when will you be attempting to come back may be a more pertinent question?

Keep your eyes peeled on updates from here on in.

[tomhow]

And......met office just changed iow from light snow to heavy snow fri pm wooooo surely this can't go the way of the pear now?!

Yup - they've just done the same to Botley, Hants for all of friday afternoon. Should make the rush hour a hoot - looking more like a good day to walk to work (luckily I can!)

[jtay]

Very cold and clear in Southampton tonight - perfect for a spot of astrophotography

You can't say that without posting some pics. Stick 'em in your gallery.

Friday morning looking very interesting and very complicated! I don't think we'll have a clear picture until tomorrows 12z... I wonder if/when the meto will upgrade their yellow snow to orange snow!?

It'll be shifted 30/40 miles east by the morning I suspect.

[gottolovethisweather]

And......met office just changed iow from light snow to heavy snow fri pm wooooo surely this can't go the way of the pear now?!

Yes snowgal, I'm afraid it can. However, as I have suggested to others, I would simply stay tuned.

Edited January 15, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[karlos1983]

Some great posts in the Mod tread at the moment, especially last few pages if the lesser learned (like myself) would like some great posts to read, I would go and have a read before the 18z roll out and mayhem resumes

[isleofwightsnowgal]

Yes snowgal, I'm afraid it can. However, as I have suggested to others is to just stay tuned.

Noooooo it can't! I'll be devastated I'm feeling positive so hopefully it'll happen for us!!

[Mark Parsons]

Ok. So when do I call off my weekend trip to London?! Meant to be driving up on Friday afternoon. Seriously! I don't know what to do! I'm meeting family for the first time.... Help!

and I am due to fly to Paris on Saturday morning from Exeter, I have to drive 40 miles to get to the airport will be just our luck we wont get there!!

[gottolovethisweather]

Based on the ECM, this is the position of the PPN band at midday on Friday;

And of this PPN, this is where it wil be falling as snow;

Suggestive of rain over Devon, Cornwall and into southern Somerset by midday Friday. By 18:00, the PPN band will have all but cleared the region, leaving behind some patchy, showery PPN;

Thanks AWD, is that strong southerly flow still condusive for widespread snow or does it become more marginal. I'm guessing it does?

Give us an undercutter and then we all will be much better off I imagine.

Fax Charts will be very telling over the coming days.