North West England Regional Discussion 16/01/13, 12z Onwards

[HotCuppa]

Are there definately flakes falling, looks a lot more potent out in the Irish sea than the BBC are suggesting.

yes definite flakes, but you cannot call it a snow shower, it's like occasional flake or two falls out the sky, you see

nothing for a while then look again and another flake or two. Quite what it's actually doing is anyone's guess right

now, but I had a feeling accu weather where on to something real when they hit me up with a forecast for 29CM

on friday and 6CM on thursday night...and these guys are very very rarely wrong for my post code.#

They where absolutely spot on in 2010, the totals etc, they where a tiny bit lower than what actually fell, by a couple

of cm, but still very close.

Edited January 16, 2013 by HotCuppa

[Snow free zone]

Here you go first charts of the afternoon :

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=48&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

[HotCuppa]

since i made the above post, i looked outside and it seems the cloud is becoming less again. can see some longer blue patches, but out west it looks like snow clouds not rain

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

12z rolling

[HotCuppa]

Here you go first charts of the afternoon :

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

http://www.weatheron...=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

NAE biggest waste of model space

[The Northern Ramper]

Latest NAE precip accumulated charts are out - seems to be taking longer to advance - not getting as far east ??

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

If by 12pm friday we have 6 cm's i'll be more than happy considering there is plenty to come after that.

[HotCuppa]

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions between 0900 on Sunday and 0900 on Friday in parts of England.

Amber warning....does anyone else notice a problem with the wording here?

[Stephen_Mcr]

A word of caution in his final sentence on this video, "These warnings are LIKELY to change in the next two days."

Pleeeeze let it be upgrades Pleeeze :-)

Amber to red

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

This run so far is a carbon of the 06z

[MrSunshine]

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions between 0900 on Sunday and 0900 on Friday in parts of England.

Amber warning....does anyone else notice a problem with the wording here?

Yes I think they need to issue an updated warning extending it to the middle part of next week at least and include the words "Significant Snowfall!".

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Snow from 2100 tomorrow

[k19]

This run is backing everything about 50 miles further west so far.

[MrSunshine]

This run so far is a carbon of the 06z

Snow begins for us at 21:00 tomorrow night on this run...

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

I know dave look 2 post above lol

Smells like an upgrade

[Liam J]

Front further westwards on the 12z, slightly delayed.

[HotCuppa]

Yes I think they need to issue an updated warning extending it to the middle part of next week at least and include the words "Significant Snowfall!".

I don't think the met office would do that. In the past when they have, they have gotten a pie in the face for over reacting..so they just put a conservative number out which covers all bases, which sounds like the BBC if you ask me

Snow begins for us at 21:00 tomorrow night on this run...

that is what i have been saying since this morning

I know dave look 2 post above lol

Smells like an upgrade

not sure you can call it an upgrade, when this was known this morning, because i even mentioned it

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Still starts the main band at 0600 friday

[Snow free zone]

Not wanting to put the mockers on it all, but i can see with further corrections this ending up stalling over us and not getting over the pennines. Further west again so far.

[MrSunshine]

thank god for that well and truly still in business, probably just a 3 hour delay on the earlier run, think it tries to push in tomorrow night but the block fights off the initial weaker leading edge before the heavier precipitation arrives and forces its way east. Looking good!

[Liam J]

Not quite as intense as the 6z either but these run to run variations are to be expected.

[HotCuppa]

Still starts the main band at 0600 friday

the band starts thursday night and continues on through friday morning, hence the meto's yellow warning from 3am, and amber from 4am when the heavier snow is due to set in

[MrSunshine]

Not quite as intense as the 6z either but these run to run variations are to be expected.

Looks extremely intense to me Liam by 6:00pm Friday evening.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

The upgrade is the -5 line stays with us from start to finish

[cfallon]

Just on my phone how is it looking for us in east manchester?

Edited January 16, 2013 by cfallon

[HotCuppa]

Not wanting to put the mockers on it all, but i can see with further corrections this ending up stalling over us and not getting over the pennines. Further west again so far.

and that is bad why? they get enough as it is

The upgrade is the -5 line stays with us from start to finish

doesnt matter about the upper air in this setup