North West England Regional Discussion 16/01/13, 12z Onwards

[Never snows where i live]

Im at postcode sa14 9 something working. Will it snow tonight cos im not from this area to be honest and could do with being snowed in. Thanks

[UV-RAY]

Some cold spells have gone breasts up, though in the era of intensive model watching I've never known a snow event at this range go the way of the pear with such NWP agreement.

All that could go wrong IMO is a dramatic shift South/West of the PPN.

It does weaken it though.

I even think that is highly unlikely Ian, I can see this being a 24-36 hr event, so favoured locations could see around 30 cm + out of this,

[Backtrack]

Some cold spells have gone breasts up, though in the era of intensive model watching I've never known a snow event at this range go the way of the pear with such NWP agreement.

All that could go wrong IMO is a dramatic shift South/West of the PPN.

It does weaken it though.

Even light snow will easily accumulate, temps whilst the front is gifting us with snow are constantly sub-zero, and if someone could post the ground temps for 0600 Friday from the NMM, pretty sure you'll be assured that each and every flake will safely sit on the ground.

[UV-RAY]

It's a long way out but we could be looking at a repeat performance come next Monday/Tuesday, if that was to verify imagine some of the snow totals for the region by then.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ecm i think looks bit better for friday.

[Backtrack]

Can someone with the NMM post a couple of ground temperature charts from 0600 Friday please?

[Liam J]

12z NMM shows the front dying out as approaches the NW, especially further south, hope this is far off the mark!

Surface temps

Dew points

Edited January 16, 2013 by Liam J

[I Cumbria Marra I]

best chart by a mile since i started looking at them about 3 year ago imby, the snow would probably exceed 15cm which i have never seen in my life except when i was about 2.

[Alex95]

best chart by a mile since i started looking at them about 3 year ago imby, the snow would probably exceed 15cm which i have never seen in my life except when i was about 2.

Didn't Cumbria get big falls in March 2006? I was in Penrith and there was quite bit, 6-8 inches or something.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Didn't Cumbria get big falls in March 2006? I was in Penrith and there was quite bit, 6-8 inches or something.

Ye i think we got a round 10cm with big drifts saying that if the snow didnt blow about maybe it would have been about 15cm. That event is very similar to the upcoming one (hopefully).

[iand61]

Just come in after work but after popping into the regional thread an odd time during th day.

Are we still looking good for Friday following the Day After Tomorrow forecast at lunchtime or has a downgrade taken place.

[chris78]

12z NMM shows the front dying out as approaches the NW, especially further south, hope this is far off the mark!

Surface temps

Dew points

is this a reason to worry...not as to whether this chart happens...but does it show things are not at all sured up?

[Alex95]

Ye i think we got a round 10cm with big drifts saying that if the snow didnt blow about maybe it would have been about 15cm. That event is very similar to the upcoming one (hopefully).

Much, much colder this time - that event was quite wet when it started, so there could be bigger accumulations. I think most people wouldn't be too disappointed with 10cm anyway, that would have been deeper than the best snow all year in some winters over the last 20 years.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Alza

[Isolated Frost]

Don't worry about the band slowing and fragmenting- the Met Office also predicted this- and took this in mind when putting out your amber warning.. 24-36 hrs of light-mod snow will accumulate big time.. I think the NW and W Midlands are in for quite a good event with 10-15cm quite widely, and 15cm+ in some spots.

[Liam J]

is this a reason to worry...not as to whether this chart happens...but does it show things are not at all sured up?

Slightly concerning as the tendency on the 12z runs has been to reduce the fronts progress and intensity. Just our luck if it fizzles out! I'll only start to worry should this trend be maintained on future runs.

[greybing]

Lancashire Snowdome at maximum...

ian

That is a joke!

[Backtrack]

Regional forecast for the North West from the Met Office:

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Windy on Friday with snow spreading to most areas and giving significant accumulations. Becoming drier with winds easing this weekend. Remaining cold though with overnight frosts and ice.

Issued at: 1600 on Wed 16 Jan 2013

Boom!

[liam79]

Don't worry about the band slowing and fragmenting- the Met Office also predicted this- and took this in mind when putting out your amber warning.. 24-36 hrs of light-mod snow will accumulate big time.. I think the NW and W Midlands are in for quite a good event with 10-15cm quite widely, and 15cm+ in some spots.

the latest bbc forcast put the NW in the highest risk area for disruption Dark orange!!!

[UV-RAY]

Slightly concerning as the tendency on the 12z runs has been to reduce the fronts progress and intensity. Just our luck if it fizzles out! I'll only start to worry should this trend be maintained on future runs.

I'll worry if this trend is showing tomorrow, in fact if it is we could be looking at the mother of all disappointments. Fingers crossed this disappears tomorrow.

[chiffer]

Looking more and more possible that we could be in this cycle of cold weather for a while. what worries me is public that have nothing to do with a lovely weather forum likes this aren't heeding the warnings. Good news is im set up like the Swiss army knife of cold spells

[Backtrack]

I'll worry if this trend is showing tomorrow, in fact if it is we could be looking at the mother of all disappointments. Fingers crossed this disappears tomorrow.

Not really, take my word for it, the NMM isn't great with precipitation forecasts more than about 12 hours away.

[chris78]

post 798 model thread shows latest fax charts..........Im not good at reading them....but does that show the front fizzling out before us?

[frankie01]

Well the BBC have nailed down their opinion and would be a massive backtrack for them having commiteds to widespread snow and disrupition..For once Merseyside is in the firing line for "significant accumulations" i will take their word for it personally

[UV-RAY]

Not really, take my word for it, the NMM isn't great with precipitation forecasts more than about 12 hours away.

I know, lets hope that trend continues BT. I don't think this thread could survive another near miss.

[Snow free zone]

Well folks you now have your pantomime villain for Friday when (if) it all goes the way of the pear ..... i am now the proud owner of 2 new bright red sledges .....