North West England Regional Discussion 16/01/13, 12z Onwards

[UV-RAY]

Haha a great big gaping hole... That's the new we know and love

It's the same hole which was shown in the day after tomorrow, which flash froze everything in it's path. I best stock up on some firewood then!

[swainclubber]

OMG what's that hole near Wirral ???? Arghhhhh Noooooo :-(

i wouldn't worry about that.its only a general kind of chart.never that accurate to predict a small gap

[Liam J]

Skies becoming more clearer now from the north allowing the temp to plummet, -1.2c atm.

[Spah1]

Do B n Q sell adult sledges as well as kiddy ones???

[MrSunshine]

i wouldn't worry about that.its only a general kind of chart.never that accurate to predict a small gap

Exactly, chill people!

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

That snow off mersey coast has hit a brick wall

[MrSunshine]

That snow off mersey coast has hit a brick wall

I'm still sure it will eventually make inroads into Merseyside And perhaps western parts of Greater Manchester later on in the night, probably just after midnight.

[chris78]

i wouldn't worry about that.its only a general kind of chart.never that accurate to predict a small gap

....i agree that charts arent accurate enough for that...but history tells us that could well happen...I didnt live in Preston in 96...but Im not sure even that was a huge event here...i could be very wrong on that one...but even if I am...there has been countless times we have missed while Liverpool, Manchester, Bolton Blackburn etc all get snow....so Im not going to disregard the possiblity of us missing again

[Backtrack]

Nah, that PPN will probably just die out in the Irish Sea. There's nothing left to fuel it now, it's hit the cold block.

[itsnowjoke]

Are you talking about Friday BT

[Backtrack]

Are you talking about Friday BT

No, the PPN out there right now.

[itsnowjoke]

Oh sorry been making the tea...sort of lost track

[clangers23]

I've been out for a few hours and returned expecting the inevitable downgrade but it still looks good!

[itsnowjoke]

Going bowling now so wont be in til 8.00 ish.

Going to have a few swift ones while im there...cold out there right? something to warm me cockles

[Backtrack]

What we don't want is the dewpoints running too low. Although it's safer to have lower dewpoints in this type of set up, the lower the dewpoint the less snow will reach the floor, and the smaller the flakes will be as they can't pick up as much moisture as they're falling through the atmosphere.

Up to now, looks fantastic.

West of the region - anywhere from 15 to 30cm

East of the region a little less, although still a good 15-25cm.

[chris78]

one thing that is nailed on....this will be memorable...either for significant snow...or for being the biggest let down in model watching...or can someone think of a bigger one?

(btw whenever I am negative about snow chances its very IMBY...Im pretty sure someone is going to see alot of snow...im just skeptical about it being the Fylde Coast)

[Backtrack]

one thing that is nailed on....this will be memorable...either for significant snow...or for being the biggest let down in model watching...or can someone think of a bigger one?

(btw whenever I am negative about snow chances its very IMBY...Im pretty sure someone is going to see alot of snow...im just skeptical about it being the Fylde Coast)

What about the biggest regional ramp in history? :lol:

[shadowfax]

Met office forecast for my area now shows heavy snow from 12o/c on friday which is an improvement from the light snow it showed earlier.

[Backtrack]

Sorry guys, looks like it's gone tits up for Friday. One to two flakes every three hours according to the met office forecasts.

:winky:

[Ian Brown]

What we don't want is the dewpoints running too low. Although it's safer to have lower dewpoints in this type of set up, the lower the dewpoint the less snow will reach the floor, and the smaller the flakes will be as they can't pick up as much moisture as they're falling through the atmosphere.

Up to now, looks fantastic.

West of the region - anywhere from 15 to 30cm

East of the region a little less, although still a good 15-25cm.

I'd err on the side of caution with those depths, it depends on how quickly the front passes through, it will need to be slow moving and maintain intensity for those numbers to be achieved.

[pip22]

my forecast for north west: tommorow: dry and bright start but winds are picking up, clouding over later with light and patchy snow in places by late afternoon-evening. tommorow night: patchy snow becoming heavier later in the night, blizzards towards dawn. Friday: Heavy widespread blizzards. Weekend: N/A.

[Backtrack]

I'd err on the side of caution with those depths, it depends on how quickly the front passes through, it will need to be slow moving and maintain intensity for those numbers to be achieved.

The 12z (usually the most reliable run of the day) has the front completely stalling over our region for 36 hours mate, that's a hell of a lot of time to achieve those amounts.

[Alex95]

To me, the charts scream 10-20cm on Friday in the west of NW England. Yes, some places saw 30-60cm in 1996 but that was over several days. Don't forget you should be in for more snow after Friday, so if you get 20cm on Friday then the same again from a second frontal attack....

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Lol bt u had me there for a min

[Ian Brown]

What about the biggest regional ramp in history?

Some cold spells have gone breasts up, though in the era of intensive model watching I've never known a snow event at this range go the way of the pear with such NWP agreement.

All that could go wrong IMO is a dramatic shift South/West of the PPN.

The 12z (usually the most reliable run of the day) has the front completely stalling over our region for 36 hours mate, that's a hell of a lot of time to achieve those amounts.

It does weaken it though.