North West England Regional Discussion 16/01/13, 12z Onwards

[feb1991blizzard]

The one time when we could do with a slightly stronger Atlantic.........

[NickyB]

19cm according to the ECM.

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/wallasey/

WOOP WOOP :-) :-)

[Isolated Frost]

19cm according to the ECM.

http://www.yr.no/pla...gland/wallasey/

Bear in mind you're looking at the higher bands here- could well be less. Also, the rule may well be 1mm=1cm, but this is not always true, especially with the potential wet snow, with a high water content. I've not a clue whether it benefits you or not- but it's something to look into.

[Backtrack]

Bear in mind you're looking at the higher bands here- could well be less. Also, the rule may well be 1mm=1cm, but this is not always true, especially with the potential wet snow, with a high water content. I've not a clue whether it benefits you or not- but it's something to look into.

I was going to take those precip forecasts with a pinch of salt anyway factoring in the dryness of the air. Wet snow seems to stick easier, although the snow will be powdery rather than wet with dewpoints as low as they will be.

[Joe Bloggs]

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/runcorn/

22cm of snow if that was to verify. I'll take that.

Which data do they use?

Markedly different to the MeteoGroup app if its the ECM?

Apologies if I have forwarded the wrong info, that site is far more optimistic!

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

So it off then and my missus was right yet again!!!!!

[SnowObsessor90]

Is there a chance if it all that this could still turn out like Monday with everything being shunted east last minute? or are we at the stage now where that's a silly question?

[iand61]

17.9mm in Heswall on the hill here

I would have thought sort of figure would be expected throughout the region.

If conditions were different and rain was forecast , the figures quoted earlier would have been excessively low for a winter storm so I would be surprised, especially given the energy in the system if this turns out to be correct.

That said though I agree that your side of the region is looking better placed as it stands.

[Backtrack]

Which data do they use?

Markedly different to the MeteoGroup app if its the ECM?

Apologies if I have forwarded the wrong info, that site is far more optimistic!

That's the ECM

So it off then and my missus was right yet again!!!!!

What's off?

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

The friday god scenario thingy

[Isolated Frost]

The water equivalent of a given amount of snow is the depth of a layer of water having the same mass and upper area. For example, if the snow covering a given area has a water equivalent of 50 centimeters (20 in), then it will melt into a pool of water 50 centimeters (20 in) deep covering the same area.^[39] This is a much more useful measurement to hydrologists than snow depth, as the density of cool freshly fallen snow widely varies. New snow commonly has a density of around 8% of water. This means that 33 centimeters (13 in) of snow melts down to 2.5 centimeters (1 in) of water.^[40] Cloud temperatures and physical processes in the cloud affect the shape of individual snow crystals. Highly branched or dendritic crystals tend to have more space between the arms of ice that form the snowflake and this snow will therefore have a lower density, often referred to as "dry" snow. Conditions that create columnar or plate-like crystals will have much less air space within the crystal and will therefore be denser and feel "wetter".^[41]

8%, and it's most likely much higher, probably closer to 15-20%, so based on the EC predictions, looking at 12-18cm where you are BT.

[Backtrack]

Is there a chance if it all that this could still turn out like Monday with everything being shunted east last minute? or are we at the stage now where that's a silly question?

Ah cool, what part of Runcorn are you from?

Nah, that's highly unlikely now given current data.

[WorsleySnow]

With the unpredictibility of the models recently - take no notice of predicted levels of precip unli T0!!!

[SnowObsessor90]

Ah cool, what part of Runcorn are you from?

Nah, that's highly unlikely now given current data.

Up near the castle. btw me and that other Anon dude are one and the same lol

[Backtrack]

8%, and it's most likely much higher, probably closer to 15-20%, so based on the EC predictions, looking at 12-18cm where you are BT.

Close to the ECM's suggestions then. I'll take those 6 inches OF SNOW any day.

[V for Very Cold]

With the unpredictibility of the models recently - take no notice of predicted levels of precip unli T0!!!

sounds a bloody wise move.... so many sites are contradicting each other atm )

[Backtrack]

Up near the castle. btw me and that other Anon dude are one and the same lol

Ohhhhhh, haha!

[Never snows where i live]

Its snowing in swansea. Then hopefully when i get back to birkenhead on friday if i make it back of course

[Ian Brown]

ECM raw data has updated.. (12z)

For Friday:

Manchester 5.8mm

Liverpool 10.3mm

Preston 7.4mm

Chester 14.3mm

Buxton 6.3mm

Grasmere 8.2mm

A very, very crude guide but confirms my general suspicions that the best snow will be in the west and south west of the region, but decent enough for all! :-)

Thanks Joe, disappointing (in relative terms compared to the hype) for the central and eastern parts of the region.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Im lost somewhere. Is the gfs 18z likely to downgrade badly or is it still all to play for

[swainclubber]

Im lost somewhere. Is the gfs 18z likely to downgrade badly or is it still all to play for

nobody knows mate. would have to be a mega downgrade now

[Barmada Casten]

Anyone got any info on what things will be like for Lake District as I may be in south Lakes during the snow?

[Backtrack]

Net Weather are joining the model thread insisting that North West England doesn't exist, they also say that rain is more likely near the coasts, which I'd say is also incorrect. How is it fair the words 'North West England' are becoming a rarity?

Friday is the day to watch currently though, there is still some uncertainty over the timing and specific details but that weather front will push in ever closer and as the milder, moister air hits the cold air across the country then there is the likelihood of some widespread, significant falls of snow, particularly away from western coastal areas (where rain is more likely).

Falls of 10-15cm plus, even at lower levels are quite possible, with blizzard conditions over the hills in particular - in fact ahead of the front severe gales are possible in western Scotland and Northern Ireland for a time later on Thursday and into the early hours of Friday..

[iand61]

Thanks Joe, disappointing (in relative terms compared to the hype) for the central and eastern parts of the region.

I think on this occasion I'll stick with the hype.

Just can't see figures like that being correct and even if actual totals are on the low side, the problems can be caused by the wind speed and the blizzards and drifting which comes from it.

Friday could be a serious day if it comes of anything like expected.

[annamb]

ECM raw data has updated.. (12z)

For Friday:

Manchester 5.8mm

Liverpool 10.3mm

Preston 7.4mm

Chester 14.3mm

Buxton 6.3mm

Grasmere 8.2mm

A very, very crude guide but confirms my general suspicions that the best snow will be in the west and south west of the region, but decent enough for all! :-)

Maybe a dumb ass question, but are the above precipitation amounts or snow depths or neither?!!