North West England Regional Discussion 16/01/13, 12z Onwards

[The Northern Ramper]

Just on my phone how is it looking for us in east manchester?

Despite the further west comments it still hits us mid morning and lasts well into the evening, more than happy with that.

[HotCuppa]

Just on my phone how is it looking for us in east manchester?

it is now more westwards

I like this stalling business

[k19]

and that is bad why? they get enough as it is

doesnt matter about the upper air in this setup

Not true for those on coastal fringes. Not entirely true for those inland either, if upper temps are too high, chances are it won't be cold enough on the ground to support continuous snow as opposed to a rain/snow mix.

[Andrew Owens]

HC, as a fellow blue...please tell me that Litherland is looking good for this event!!!

[wysiwyg]

Not true for those on coastal fringes. Not entirely true for those inland either, if upper temps are too high, chances are it won't be cold enough on the ground to support continuous snow as opposed to a rain/snow mix.

Agreed. It's the DAM line that has little influence in this type of setup. The key to snow is the warm, moist air being forced up over the cold air. As this moist air cools it forms precip. that needs to stay frozen as it drops through the final couple of kilometres to the ground.

[davacr123]

Just out from met office

This Evening and Tonight:

A very cold evening and night with a hard frost across most areas. Most places staying dry, although a few, isolated snow flurries possible across Cheshire, Greater Manchester and Merseyside later tonight. Some freezing mist and fog patches forming. Minimum temperature -8 °C.

Thursday:

A very cold day despite any bright spells. Most places dry, although there is a chance of some patchy light rain, sleet and snow developing in places. Becoming windy later. Maximum temperature 1 °C.

Updated: 1544 on Wed 16 Jan 2013

[snowdrifter]

Agreed. It's the DAM line that has little influence in this type of setup. The key to snow is the warm, moist air being forced up over the cold air. As this moist air cools it forms precip. that needs to stay frozen as it drops through the final couple of kilometres to the ground.

Well this is becoming increasingly like Feb '96 with its slight movement further west, and Blackpool was cut off then. I would be VERY surprise if there wasn't significant snow on the beach now.

[Liam J]

UKMO 12z looking good as well, a unique set up with -8c uppers being pulled into the ppn.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Liam J

[itsnowjoke]

Still think this is too good to be true...

[wysiwyg]

Well this is becoming increasingly like Feb '96 with its slight movement further west, and Blackpool was cut off then. I would be VERY surprise if there wasn't significant snow on the beach now.

Yes. I'll stick my neck out and say at this stage it's more about "how much" than "if"!

[k19]

UKMO 12z looking good as well, a unique set up with -8c uppers being pulled into the ppn.

On what day Liam? Also where are you getting 850's for UKMO?

[Liam J]

On what day Liam? Also where are you getting 850's for UKMO?

Friday, charts can be seen here - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=48&carte=1007

[Alex95]

Looks like I might be calling off my trip to Keswick as in all seriousness I don't want to risk getting stuck. There's no place I'd rather be at the weekend than NW England. I'd be surprised if 90% of your region doesn't have at least 4 inches by the end of the weekend, and it looks as though early next week could bring yet another failed attack by the Atlantic, and tons of snow for the NW again.

Probably your best chance to see over a foot of snow widely since 1996, but this time its even colder.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Agreed. It's the DAM line that has little influence in this type of setup. The key to snow is the warm, moist air being forced up over the cold air. As this moist air cools it forms precip. that needs to stay frozen as it drops through the final couple of kilometres to the ground.

The DAM line does not influence this type of setup as the Dew Points are very low, so 528 not needed at all.

[k19]

That chart in particular bodes well for coastal fringes, no rain in that.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Looks like I might be calling off my trip to Keswick as in all seriousness I don't want to risk getting stuck. There's no place I'd rather be at the weekend than NW England. I'd be surprised if 90% of your region doesn't have at least 4 inches by the end of the weekend, and it looks as though early next week could bring yet another failed attack by the Atlantic, and tons of snow for the NW again.

Probably your best chance to see over a foot of snow widely since 1996, but this time its even colder.

Yes - as nice as it is to be stuck enjoying the hostelries in Keswick - the journey over on the 66 would be interesting to say the least.

[Darren Bown]

What are the dew points for NW predicted? Are they well below 0?

[R.P. McMurphy]

What are the dew points for NW predicted? Are they well below 0?

Yes, much below - they dont get above 0 all Friday - -2C to -6C

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Gone quiet on ere have i been looking at wrong models

[Liam J]

Despite the cloud the temp has fallen back down to 0c.

[Snow_Fan_Man]

It's looking good, but i'm not getting my hopes up - it could all go tits up, which is what i come to expect for my hometown region (Cheshire) these days.

[wysiwyg]

Gone quiet on ere have i been looking at wrong models

Maybe everyone's a bit gobsmacked.

[Darren Bown]

Cleared up massively here. Already -2c. Interesting that travelling to North Bolton today there was about 3 or 4cm of snow though here at Westhoughton (BL5) there is only frost!

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Maybe snow in south of the region in an hour

[Snow_Fan_Man]

Yes, much below - they dont get above 0 all Friday - -2C to -6C

Wow, you still around on Netweather eh, Glenn!