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Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.

chionomaniac

By chionomaniac
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

I know we should be concentrating on tomorrow, but how about this for only 42 hours away!!!

gfs-0-42.png?18

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Jimmy0127 Apprentice

Jimmy0127

Posted
  • Location: SW London
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: SW London
Posted

There seems to be growing consensus among the more senior members that Atlantic might finally have the key to the (b)lock. I can't really see this having any weight when we're looking deep into FI, no albedo temperature effects are initialised. I have no reason to think that the Northern high has less than a week to go. But then again, I'm rubbish at this.

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weather_it_will Contributor

weather_it_will

Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire
Posted

18Z is an upgrade for cold, with heights building over Greenland and Scandinavia pushing the mild further west.

gfs-0-96.png?18

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Chris D Apprentice

Chris D

Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow, Thunderstorms & Summer Plumes
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk
Posted (edited)

You are joking?

This time yesterday it was a Nationwide event tonight its for the SW and Midlands only.

Andy

I think you are joking? The models very clearly show snow amounts varying from 2-10cm across the country, away from Wales and west Midlands where totals could be in the region of 10-20cm. Way more over hills.

http://expert-images...011900_1718.gif

http://www.weatheron...=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

Nationwide event I think.

Edited by Chris D
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pages Aficionado

pages

Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
Posted

GFS only needs to move slightly further west and will see what the CMA showed this morning, better heights over greenland the low further south, displacing the azores and allowing channel low and then long term cold as hights build over greenland. CMA this evening not as good this evening as the low doesn't eject a shortwave at t120 allowing the azores to stick its nose in and energy to go north east.

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Grimsby Snow Lover Contributor

Grimsby Snow Lover

Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
Posted

For what its worth looking at events next Tuesday/Wednesday the easterly as was the case this weeks looks to be getting lighter when comparing it with previous runs.

Pretty good upper temperatures though.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130117/18/126/h850t850eu.png

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

Well GFS looking less than inspiring for next week now. In SW'lys by Wed!

Didn't the GFS say the same about this week too, at this time last week? rofl.gif

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

yet again gfs remains consistent in breaking down the cold at 150 hrs.cant it be wrong run after run???

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Jimmy0127 Apprentice

Jimmy0127

Posted
  • Location: SW London
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: SW London
Posted

Didn't the GFS say the same about this week too, at this time last week? rofl.gif

Last week they had the mighty ECM in disagreement...

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Ian Brown Enthusiast

Ian Brown

Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
Posted

Well GFS looking less than inspiring for next week now. In SW'lys by Wed!

Yes it remains out of kilter with the other models, which have stronger heights to the North that deflect the jet. The GFS seems to get to T120 and think 'right, I've got to get the Azores High into the UK'.

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Penrith Snow Experienced

Penrith Snow

Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
Posted

I think you are joking? The models very clearly show snow amounts varying from 2-10cm across the country, away from Wales and west Midlands where totals could be in the region of 10-20cm. Way more over hills.

http://expert-images...011900_1718.gif

http://www.weatheron...=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

Nationwide event I think.

Sorry Chris,

I hadnt seem the updated NAE which is actually better for Nationwide snow than this morning.

We shall see, but I agree its looking better for us Northerners than it was earlier today.

Andy

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted

yet again gfs remains consistent in breaking down the cold at 150 hrs.cant it be wrong run after run???

oh yes it can blum.gif

Not a chance in hell that any of the models have things nailed that far out. This set up is mind bogglingly complex and you would be better of consulting mystic meg at 150 hours at the moment.

Jason

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Long haul to mild Community Regular

Long haul to mild

Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
Posted

yet again gfs remains consistent in breaking down the cold at 150 hrs.cant it be wrong run after run???

It always breaks down the cold at T150! Thing is, it never seems to get any closer......

FI firmly T96 anyway.......

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Yet again the gfs (yawn) follows the same old script, 3 runs out of 4 today when the cold block subsides due to the atlantic angle of attack being west to east, hoping for better in the morning.

Don't let the gfs spoil your enjoyment of the snow tomorrow.drinks.gif

post-4783-0-07104500-1358461553_thumb.pn

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igloo Enthusiast

igloo

Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
Posted

i wonder if this evenings GFS is a mild outlier it has been very bullyish on flattening the pattern quickly it looks nothing like the euros for suregfs-0-144.png?18?18

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pages Aficionado

pages

Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
Posted

Think we will know either way if the block is going to break next week by this time tomorrow, we only need slightly higher heights into greenland and that low will be further south, so eject more energy south east, reinforce the block and stop that awful azores high poking its nose in.

No point looking past T90 on next run. just look at t90 t84 t78 t72 over the next 4 runs and hopefully see the trend for the azores to be displaced further south. if its not thats the block gone.

Wont be to sad, loads of snow over next few days and with the vortex in trouble the next cold period may not be far away.

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Yet again the gfs (yawn) follows the same old script, 3 runs out of 4 today when the cold block subsides due to the atlantic angle of attack being west to east, hoping for better in the morning.

Don't let the gfs spoil your enjoyment of the snow tomorrow.drinks.gif

It certainly won't. I don't normally get too hung up on which model's are performing best as usually they all have good and bad spells but the GFS appears to me to have been shocking for most of 2013. UKMO seems to have been the most consistent over the last 7-10 days!

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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

Didn't the GFS say the same about this week too, at this time last week? rofl.gif

Yes it did!

today.. 6 days ago..

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Snowly does it Rookie

Snowly does it

Posted
  • Location: Norfolk
  • Location: Norfolk
Posted

GFS certainly seems to be playing the 'how do I normalise weather 6 days out?' game

Maybe with record breaking entropy and SSW action, you don't!

This whole T150 breakdown every time is a case of a stopped clock being right once every 12 hours......

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