North West England Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013. 12z onwards

[SparkleS]

Temp climbing here to 2.5 degrees havent seen anymore flakes yet

[HotCuppa]

New poster on here, been reading for months though!

HotCuppa, what is your reasons for ignoring the BBC forecast? Are they using old data or something? (Im in Liverpool by the way)

seems to me they use their own reasoning. there will be snow over the south of the region, not entirely sure what they use, but i wouldn't pay

any attention to forecast, it seems to me to be far too general. The GFS and ECM go against this.

[Backtrack]

That amber warning is going to be removed, no doubt about it, it'll move to affect northern Wales down into the Midlands.

EVERY TIME.

[gearbox1001]

oh well we will have another shot at some snow some other time.

[chris78]

they are late with updated warnings I think they must be waiting for the next runs?

[Liam J]

You'd think they would have amended the warning by now, it's quite clear it is way OTT compared with the latest guidance. Folk might be looking at the met site and making plans in the amber area when in reality they needn't be.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Liam J

[trickydicky]

Email to missus' work from Met Office:

"The final paragraph of yesterday’s briefing was perhaps the most telling, advising that in a potential snow situation like this, a lot of the detail can change in the lead-up period. It will therefore perhaps come as no great surprise that successive forecast updates over the past 24 hours have resulted in a change of emphasis for tomorrow’s snow, the overall message being that the risk of widespread disruption across the Northwest has reduced, especially across the northern half of the region.

Looking at the situation in more detail – some light snow may drift northwards across the region this afternoon and overnight, not amounting to very much and not causing any real issues. By the end of tonight the main area of snow is expected to be knocking on the door of west Cheshire and Merseyside. Yesterday’s prognosis, you will recall, was for the band of snow to then make slow but measured northeastwards progress across the region thereafter, effectively putting just about the whole of the Northwest in the firing line for appreciable and quite possibly disruptive snowfall. What the computer models are now indicating, and what the Chief Forecaster in Operations Centre is satisfied to go along with, is that the main band of snow will make much less NE’wards progress through tomorrow, hence reducing the amounts of snow, especially across Cumbria and Lancashire, the areas that were potentially at greatest risk from disruption this time yesterday.

If we accept the latest forecast then it is the southern end of our region i.e. Merseyside, Cheshire and possibly also south Lancashire and parts of Greater Manchester, that now appear as if they will catch the majority of the Northwest’s snow tomorrow and through Friday night, with Cheshire currently expected to see most, by virtue of it being furthest south and closest to the band of persistent snow. Indeed the spread of the snow across the region during the course of tomorrow is now much less certain. Most of us will see some between dawn tomorrow and dawn Saturday but a lot of it will be relatively light and although it will settle on all untreated surfaces, accumulations should be fairly modest. The areas most at risk from experiencing any heavier snow, sufficient to cause transport disruption, will, as already indicated, most likely be across Merseyside and Cheshire, perhaps including south Lancashire and parts of Greater Manchester. Over the northern half of Lancashire and Cumbria some intermittent snow may well develop during the course of tomorrow afternoon/evening and overnight but it shouldn’t amount to very much. Of one thing I am confident - everywhere tomorrow will be bitterly cold with temperatures around or slightly below freezing, the chill accentuated by the SE’ly wind.

A graphic of forecast snow amounts for tomorrow and Saturday is being prepared by Operations Centre and, once available, will be forwarded on in a separate email.

The Amber Alert that was issued for much of the region is being revised and will be reissued shortly. The southern end of our region will be retained in the amber sector but most, if not all of Lancashire and Cumbria will be removed and revert to Yellow status.

Looking on into the weekend, the picture is a predominantly dry one but remaining very cold with daytime temperatures struggling up to or just above freezing and only a very slow thaw (at low levels only) of any lying snow. First thing Saturday there may still be some intermittent light snow across the region but it should largely die away during the day, except perhaps towards the Pennines where snow showers pushing inland from the east may add give slight accumulations, the risk particularly for the Cumbrian Pennines.

I hope the message comes across reasonably clearly, what looked a relatively clear-cut event yesterday has now had its edges well and truly blurred so, as always, please call if you do require clarification on any of the above,

The next scheduled update will be tomorrow morning, however, any significant changes in emphasis before then will be communicated asap,

Graphic and updated Yellow/Amber Warnings to follow shortly,"

[Brass_Monkeys]

Don't forget that the Met use very high resolution models to forecast ppn and we are within 24hrs of the event. The graphics on the BBC forecast are representative of the signal picked up by these models.

At this range I honestly doubt they will be too far from the mark, pretty damn accurate in fact.

If I get 2cm tomorrow I will be happy, especially as things currently stand

*Edit* - Pretty much as Trickydicky's excellent post explains.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Brass_Monkeys

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

So we dont get snow from east, north, south and now west. Im moving to greenland. Tarraa

[Andrew Owens]

Great post Tricky!

I just hope Merseyside keeps the amber warning and remains in the firing line!

Edited January 17, 2013 by Andrew Owens

[trickydicky]

Great post Tricky!

Not if you live in Lancashire!

[UV-RAY]

Email to missus' work from Met Office:

"The final paragraph of yesterday’s briefing was perhaps the most telling, advising that in a potential snow situation like this, a lot of the detail can change in the lead-up period. It will therefore perhaps come as no great surprise that successive forecast updates over the past 24 hours have resulted in a change of emphasis for tomorrow’s snow, the overall message being that the risk of widespread disruption across the Northwest has reduced, especially across the northern half of the region.

Looking at the situation in more detail – some light snow may drift northwards across the region this afternoon and overnight, not amounting to very much and not causing any real issues. By the end of tonight the main area of snow is expected to be knocking on the door of west Cheshire and Merseyside. Yesterday’s prognosis, you will recall, was for the band of snow to then make slow but measured northeastwards progress across the region thereafter, effectively putting just about the whole of the Northwest in the firing line for appreciable and quite possibly disruptive snowfall. What the computer models are now indicating, and what the Chief Forecaster in Operations Centre is satisfied to go along with, is that the main band of snow will make much less NE’wards progress through tomorrow, hence reducing the amounts of snow, especially across Cumbria and Lancashire, the areas that were potentially at greatest risk from disruption this time yesterday.

If we accept the latest forecast then it is the southern end of our region i.e. Merseyside, Cheshire and possibly also south Lancashire and parts of Greater Manchester, that now appear as if they will catch the majority of the Northwest’s snow tomorrow and through Friday night, with Cheshire currently expected to see most, by virtue of it being furthest south and closest to the band of persistent snow. Indeed the spread of the snow across the region during the course of tomorrow is now much less certain. Most of us will see some between dawn tomorrow and dawn Saturday but a lot of it will be relatively light and although it will settle on all untreated surfaces, accumulations should be fairly modest. The areas most at risk from experiencing any heavier snow, sufficient to cause transport disruption, will, as already indicated, most likely be across Merseyside and Cheshire, perhaps including south Lancashire and parts of Greater Manchester. Over the northern half of Lancashire and Cumbria some intermittent snow may well develop during the course of tomorrow afternoon/evening and overnight but it shouldn’t amount to very much. Of one thing I am confident - everywhere tomorrow will be bitterly cold with temperatures around or slightly below freezing, the chill accentuated by the SE’ly wind.

A graphic of forecast snow amounts for tomorrow and Saturday is being prepared by Operations Centre and, once available, will be forwarded on in a separate email.

The Amber Alert that was issued for much of the region is being revised and will be reissued shortly. The southern end of our region will be retained in the amber sector but most, if not all of Lancashire and Cumbria will be removed and revert to Yellow status.

Looking on into the weekend, the picture is a predominantly dry one but remaining very cold with daytime temperatures struggling up to or just above freezing and only a very slow thaw (at low levels only) of any lying snow. First thing Saturday there may still be some intermittent light snow across the region but it should largely die away during the day, except perhaps towards the Pennines where snow showers pushing inland from the east may add give slight accumulations, the risk particularly for the Cumbrian Pennines.

I hope the message comes across reasonably clearly, what looked a relatively clear-cut event yesterday has now had its edges well and truly blurred so, as always, please call if you do require clarification on any of the above,

The next scheduled update will be tomorrow morning, however, any significant changes in emphasis before then will be communicated asap,

Graphic and updated Yellow/Amber Warnings to follow shortly,"

Could be game over for my part of the world then if this verifies, bugger!!

[HotCuppa]

Don't forget that the Met use very high resolution models to forecast ppn and we are less within 24hrs of the event. The graphics on the BBC forecast are representative of the signal picked up by these models.

At this range I honestly doubt they will be too far from the mark, pretty damn accurate in fact.

If I get 2cm tomorrow I will be happy, especially as things currently stand

im still not convinced by the bbc forecasts

[Backtrack]

The Met Office just tweeted me.

Met Office â€@metoffice

@jdpal1993 Warnings can be updated at any time, but look out for an update within the next couple of hours. ^MR

Odds of them waiting until the 12z to update? High methinks.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Backtrack

[Andrew Owens]

Not if you live in Lancashire!

Sorry yes, however us lot in Merseyside hardly ever see any snow!

[pip22]

I think the river ribble marks the boundary line. everywhere north of Preston will get no snow at all.

[Backtrack]

So we dont get snow from east, north, south and now west. Im moving to greenland. Tarraa

Did you even read Tricky's post above? The Met expect MERSEYSIDE and WESTERN CHESHIRE to be in the firing line for NW England, this is very much game on for the SW of the region as HotCuppa keeps saying,

[gearbox1001]

nice post tricky, have to say the met office don't half write a lot to say so little. I need them to do my reports for work.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Yellow warnings updated at 1140

Did you even read Tricky's post above? The Met expect MERSEYSIDE and WESTERN CHESHIRE to be in the firing line for NW England, this is very much game on for the SW of the region as HotCuppa keeps saying,

I posted before but it took a while to go through

[Louise]

I am keeping literally everything crossed for tomorrow. It seems that, for a change, we are right in the firing line. Sledges at the ready!!!

[trickydicky]

I think the river ribble marks the boundary line. everywhere north of Preston will get no snow at all.

So one side will be green, and one will be white?

That makes perfect sense.

[pip22]

there still warnings for rain in northern ireland according to met office.

[Darren Bown]

Thanks for that informative post tricky

[chris78]

Sorry yes, however us lot in Merseyside hardly ever see any snow!

I lived in Liverpool for 18 years and Preston for 14....Liverpool is like the arctic compared to Preston

Edited January 17, 2013 by chris78

[Backtrack]

Their yellow warning screams one thing at me:

They do not know.