North West England Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013. 12z onwards

[UV-RAY]

Temp now 1.8 c, yesterday highest temp was 2.1c.

[Ian Brown]

Whats the chances of us getting close to the cold NW'erly set up we had in 2009 that bought all the convective snow off the Irish Sea. Am i right in saying we need better heights over Greenland for that to happen again ?

Yes we would need a Greenland High for such a set-up, unfortunately I think a fair chance that much of the region will be dry until the breakdown from the Atlantic comes, on the plus side we do need a dry spell. Obviously the frustration is seeing all other areas, with the exception of the North Midlands and perhaps Western Scotland and Cornwall seeing snow.

[Potent Gust]

Yes we would need a Greenland High for such a set-up, unfortunately I think a fair chance that much of the region will be dry until the breakdown from the Atlantic comes, on the plus side we do need a dry spell. Obviously the frustration is seeing all other areas, with the exception of the North Midlands and perhaps Western Scotland and Cornwall seeing snow.

Hi Ian

I always value your input. I live in Tamworth. Am I likely to still see a bit of snow?

[The charts drive me insain]

Light snow started to come down here at clifton marsh on the Ribble estuary

[HotCuppa]

Hi Ian

I always value your input. I live in Tamworth. Am I likely to still see a bit of snow?

at the moment it looks more like snow showers for tamworth, could change tomorrow tho

[SparkleS]

Hmmn gone quite dark out there, should imagine will get some more flakes on top of the last 7 i saw earlier lol

[Snow free zone]

Yes we would need a Greenland High for such a set-up, unfortunately I think a fair chance that much of the region will be dry until the breakdown from the Atlantic comes, on the plus side we do need a dry spell. Obviously the frustration is seeing all other areas, with the exception of the North Midlands and perhaps Western Scotland and Cornwall seeing snow.

Thanks Ian. So its fairly standard fayre then, dry and cold.

[Liam J]

00z ECM ppn charts looking a little better for most of the region so don't loose all hope just yet! I guess this developing feature could spring a few surprises for the NW as the models are getting to grips on how it'll all play out. (we can hope)

Edited January 17, 2013 by Liam J

[WorsleySnow]

Met office currently saying snow frm 12:00 today through to saturday morning relatively unbroken, with amber warnings in place during friday, thoughts? - Wigan

the amber warnings were issued yesterday, expect an update and most probable downgrade between now and lunchtime.

Edited January 17, 2013 by WorsleySnow

[SP1986]

the latest news 24 forecast wasn't so encouraging.. snow struggling to make it to our region at all, and even a hint of rain over Wirral which suggests light preciptation.. that said you never know what will actually happen until it happens!

[HotCuppa]

the amber warnings were issued yesterday, expect an update and most peobalble downgrade between now and lunchtime.

they tweeted saying they will be moving the amber warning more westwards, there was no mention of any downgrades at all

[Stephen_Mcr]

Awaiting any meto updates, they issued yesterdays warning at 11:23 so any changes could be soon.

[HotCuppa]

the latest news 24 forecast wasn't so encouraging.. snow struggling to make it to our region at all, and even a hint of rain over Wirral which suggests light preciptation.. that said you never know what will actually happen until it happens!

for wirral i do not know, but for here its looking great, a very good upgrade for the south of the region on the 06z, ECM region wide still looking good, not sure about your side of the wirral though SP, it is raining in valley if thats any reflection for your area. in fact barely anything seems to have changed regarding snowfall coverage down here.

00z ECM ppn charts looking a little better for most of the region so don't loose all hope just yet! I guess this developing feature could spring a few surprises for the NW as the models are getting to grips on how it'll all play out. (we can hope)

looks poor compared to the 06z GFS especially for the south of the region

Edited January 17, 2013 by HotCuppa

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Warm sector

[Snow free zone]

Irish sea pepping up - chances of those showers approaching land ?

[karyo]

00z ECM ppn charts looking a little better for most of the region so don't loose all hope just yet! I guess this developing feature could spring a few surprises for the NW as the models are getting to grips on how it'll all play out. (we can hope)

I'll be more than happy if the ECM is right! It basically shows the low pressure with associated front making a bit more progress north than say the UKMO before it starts sinking south. I'd expect the mountains of northeast Wales to eat some of the intensity but still a nice covering.

We will have a better idea when the 12z's come out but that means 4 hours of waiting!!!

Karyo

[gearbox1001]

we the only place in the country that could have minus temperatures but as soon as snow appears a warm sector pops up. lol

[NickyB]

the latest news 24 forecast wasn't so encouraging.. snow struggling to make it to our region at all, and even a hint of rain over Wirral which suggests light preciptation.. that said you never know what will actually happen until it happens!

Oh well, whatever happens or doesn't happen I've still enjoyed the excitement of will it won't it.

[HotCuppa]

Irish sea pepping up - chances of those showers approaching land ?

it was pepping up, but looking at latest radar, it looks to be dissipating

[cowdog]

Temp now 1.8 c, yesterday highest temp was 2.1c.

How odd. I am not that far from you relatively (15-20 miles) yet we are onto our 3rd ice day, and temps now at -1c. Just shows what effect the height and being just that bit more away from the coast does.

[Backtrack]

Let me just calm things down here by saying a few things, firstly regarding the 'Hugo Low'

This is something I've never heard of, but I think we all know what would happen if a low developed in the Irish Sea? Surely this would INCREASE precipitation amounts by injecting fresh energy into the system, I think we all know that when there's a low in the Irish Sea & cold continental air sat across the surface, it usually results in the NW being hit hard.

Secondly, the GFS's trend to correct thing westwards, this has had me baffled since yesterday when we had that front sat out in the Irish Sea. The GFS screwed that up by more than 50-70 miles. The PPN was forecast to sit over Ireland and simple fizzle with little progression eastwards, instead it fought it's way eastwards and came VERY close to delivering snowfall to our region.

Thirdly, the amber warning will NOT be removed. Ian F declared last night that there are no significant changes. Last night's high-res models especially the UKV (1.5km res) would of picked up on a shortwave/spoiler low at this kind of time frame.

Wait for the 12z's before making judgement, the extra balloon data & other variables will help with surface features & determine the exact track & intensity of this front.

To sum up, an event to deliver 10cm+ of snow is still very much ON.

[WorsleySnow]

they tweeted saying they will be moving the amber warning more westwards, there was no mention of any downgrades at all

Will be interesting to see with nearly every model downdrading the ppn for the North of the area, I imagine they would reduce the extents of the amber....a waiting game as ever!!

[HotCuppa]

How odd. I am not that far from you relatively (15-20 miles) yet we are onto our 3rd ice day, and temps now at -1c. Just shows what effect the height and being just that bit more away from the coast does.

my temperature was rising, but has dropped back to -0.3C, holding steady from 1.4C dropped in the past hour or so

[raul_sbd]

Snowing in Sale (Trafford)

Very light as i type

[Backtrack]

my temperature was rising, but has dropped back to -0.3C, holding steady from 1.4C dropped in the past hour or so

Watch out for the eastward trend on the 12z, if so, the heaviest stuff would sit slap bang over Cheshire, and indeed our areas.