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North West England Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013. 12z onwards

Snowangel-MK

By Snowangel-MK
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pip22 Accomplished

pip22

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, warm weather not too hot, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
Posted

saw some snow grains here

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HotCuppa Newbie

HotCuppa

Posted
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
Posted

Will be interesting to see with nearly every model downdrading the ppn for the North of the area, I imagine they would reduce the extents of the amber....a waiting game as ever!!

forgot to say, moving it westwards and south a bit

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Troubleatmill Community Regular

Troubleatmill

Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
Posted (edited)

00z ECM ppn charts looking a little better for most of the region so don't loose all hope just yet! I guess this developing feature could spring a few surprises for the NW as the models are getting to grips on how it'll all play out. (we can hope)

post-9615-0-04454200-1358420245_thumb.pn post-9615-0-76435900-1358420255_thumb.pn

Hi Liam, they are great charts!, dont just mean for tomorrow but overall, could you give a link as i struggle with ECM apart from the iceland met for ECM precipitation, or is it a paid site? they look great good.gif

Edited by Nick JB
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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted

Excitedly just logged for all the updates. What the hells happened? Preston yesterday 10-15cm, today 2cm???

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HotCuppa Newbie

HotCuppa

Posted
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
Posted

Watch out for the eastward trend on the 12z, if so, the heaviest stuff would sit slap bang over Cheshire, and indeed our areas. smile.png

indeed, lets see what happens on the 12z as i mentioned earlier

Excitedly just logged for all the updates. What the hells happened? Preston yesterday 10-15cm, today 2cm???

i think someone was heavily ramping for the north of region, 10-15cm sounded a bit far fetched

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted

indeed, lets see what happens on the 12z as i mentioned earlier

i think someone was heavily ramping for the north of region, 10-15cm sounded a bit far fetched

Haha, yeah the bloody Met Office were.

As the weather breaks down, an area of snow looks increasingly likely to spread from the southwest. Winds will strengthen and blizzard conditions are likely, especially over high ground. Accumulations of more than 10-15 cm of snow could well occur quite widely, with the risk of 25 cm or more over high ground.

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Alex95 Contributor

Alex95

Posted
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and heat, North Sea snow
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
Posted (edited)

I can't see Cumbria getting much now - hope I'm wrong but I can see me being in snowless Keswick whilst the North East gets pasted all weekend!

I think Cheshire will still get some, but certainly not the blizzards which were predicted a couple of days ago.

Edited by Alza
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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted

Any of the more experienced amongst us think this will get as far east as Cheadle/Stockport?

Yes, you'll do fine.

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted

I don't know about you lot, but 18 hours of continuous light snow would go down as just fine in my book.

What more can you ask of this region?

post-8895-0-79736900-1358421750_thumb.pn

Obviously there will be some heavier stuff tied in too. We're still looking at good, disruptive accumulations here guys.

I will remain in a good mind frame until the 12z. If the 12z decides to shift it all west, then I shall cry.

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SparkleS Community Regular

SparkleS

Posted
  • Location: Leyland,Lancs, uk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow!! Ooh and sunny,warm days!!!
  • Location: Leyland,Lancs, uk
Posted

Wish i hadnt gone downstairs now, just caught bbc news weather and it shows huge amounts of snow from north wales all the way down the western side to the south and then a bit into the north east further on in the day on friday and completely misses the whole of the northwest, not one snowflake over north wales and above!!!! Complete non event according to that not a drop in amount of snow, no snow.

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Ian Brown Enthusiast

Ian Brown

Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
Posted

Let me just calm things down here by saying a few things, firstly regarding the 'Hugo Low'

This is something I've never heard of, but I think we all know what would happen if a low developed in the Irish Sea? Surely this would INCREASE precipitation amounts by injecting fresh energy into the system, I think we all know that when there's a low in the Irish Sea & cold continental air sat across the surface, it usually results in the NW being hit hard.

Secondly, the GFS's trend to correct thing westwards, this has had me baffled since yesterday when we had that front sat out in the Irish Sea. The GFS screwed that up by more than 50-70 miles. The PPN was forecast to sit over Ireland and simple fizzle with little progression eastwards, instead it fought it's way eastwards and came VERY close to delivering snowfall to our region.

Thirdly, the amber warning will NOT be removed. Ian F declared last night that there are no significant changes. Last night's high-res models especially the UKV (1.5km res) would of picked up on a shortwave/spoiler low at this kind of time frame.

Wait for the 12z's before making judgement, the extra balloon data & other variables will help with surface features & determine the exact track & intensity of this front.

To sum up, an event to deliver 10cm+ of snow is still very much ON.

Backtrack – apparently the amber warning will be adjusted to Northern Ireland Wales, SW Midlands. Western and Southern parts of the NW will remain in the yellow.

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chicken soup Aficionado

chicken soup

Posted
  • Location: blackburn
  • Weather Preferences: heavy snow/ heatwaves
  • Location: blackburn
Posted

Let me just calm things down here by saying a few things, firstly regarding the 'Hugo Low'

This is something I've never heard of, but I think we all know what would happen if a low developed in the Irish Sea? Surely this would INCREASE precipitation amounts by injecting fresh energy into the system, I think we all know that when there's a low in the Irish Sea & cold continental air sat across the surface, it usually results in the NW being hit hard.

Secondly, the GFS's trend to correct thing westwards, this has had me baffled since yesterday when we had that front sat out in the Irish Sea. The GFS screwed that up by more than 50-70 miles. The PPN was forecast to sit over Ireland and simple fizzle with little progression eastwards, instead it fought it's way eastwards and came VERY close to delivering snowfall to our region.

Thirdly, the amber warning will NOT be removed. Ian F declared last night that there are no significant changes. Last night's high-res models especially the UKV (1.5km res) would of picked up on a shortwave/spoiler low at this kind of time frame.

Wait for the 12z's before making judgement, the extra balloon data & other variables will help with surface features & determine the exact track & intensity of this front.

To sum up, an event to deliver 10cm+ of snow is still very much ON.

. Does this apply for the whole region backtrack or just the south.
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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted

Thanks Backtrack. Was only quoting the MO.

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

Hi Liam, they are great charts!, dont just mean for tomorrow but overall, could you give a link as i struggle with ECM apart from the iceland met for ECM precipitation, or is it a paid site? they look great good.gif

It's the Wunderground site, they're free to all! You can use the menu on the right to change between models and surface conditions :)

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted

. Does this apply for the whole region backtrack or just the south.

It's a generalization as a whole, although I'd expect lower amounts the further east..

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted

Backtrack – apparently the amber warning will be adjusted to Northern Ireland Wales, SW Midlands. Western and Southern parts of the NW will remain in the yellow.

Well the Met Office tweets just said no more than a few cm in Manchester tomorrow, so this is probably correct. God damn.

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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted

Wish i hadnt gone downstairs now, just caught bbc news weather and it shows huge amounts of snow from north wales all the way down the western side to the south and then a bit into the north east further on in the day on friday and completely misses the whole of the northwest, not one snowflake over north wales and above!!!! Complete non event according to that not a drop in amount of snow, no snow.

They must be going with their own model which shows the band failing to come here! help.gif

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SparkleS Community Regular

SparkleS

Posted
  • Location: Leyland,Lancs, uk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow!! Ooh and sunny,warm days!!!
  • Location: Leyland,Lancs, uk
Posted

They must be going with their own model which shows the band failing to come here! help.gif

Which is the truth of the situation, right?

This happened last year, sorry year before lol now we are in a new year :) was showing huge dumping of snow for north west Nd it didnt come off at all, not a flake :(

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