North West England Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013. 12z onwards

[Cheshire Freeze]

12z GFS is quite good. I tend to rate it's rainfall projections

Same here, that's what I've been saying. It does well with frontal precipitation, better than the NAE on occasion.

Edited January 17, 2013 by CreweCold

[frosty ground]

Indeed the 12z is much better for the NW region!

UKMet Raw Data & NAE Vs GFS Raw Data

[chris78]

you have made absolutely no contribution except almost the same thing each time..

indeed...at least I dress my negativity up a bit.....

[Shaun-reeves]

BOOM!!!

[HotCuppa]

i wished this darn snow would get here from this front lol

seeing praying to the snow gods does on occasion work

Edited January 17, 2013 by HotCuppa

[UV-RAY]

at least the 12z is a lot more reliable

Indeed, the 12z has far more data included than any of the previous runs

[Troubleatmill]

Is leyland the only place with the warmest temps at the mo, 3.3 here!

Im reckoning penwortham is slightly warmer... 18.7 and dew point of 9.1 , sun is out and we are all sat in the beer garden of the farmers arms, keep your snow southern softies lol

Edited January 17, 2013 by Nick JB

[davacr123]

Ok starting to get actual snow flakes here in bidston on the wirral

[snowdrifter]

Jeez that 12Z is a massive upgrade compared to the 0Z and 6Z runs - just shows how flippy floppy these darn NWP models are - give them a volatile situation to deal with and they go haywire!!!!

Don't believe ANYTHING now. Its the reverse cry wolf effect.

[wysiwyg]

at least the 12z is a lot more reliable

Be interesting to see how it compares with the METO model and how soon (if) they revise their forecast again!

[Osamasbinsledgin]

ah Jan 1979 synoptics

[UV-RAY]

Champagne corks popping, or shall we wait until T-0hr.

[Liam J]

to my eyes the 12z wants to pivot the ppn over Wales & Midlands over the region before it pulls away to the NW? That what it looks like on meteociel anyway

Edited January 17, 2013 by Liam J

[Simon_]

I'm feeling slightly more confident now

[HotCuppa]

Champagne corks popping, or shall we wait until T-0hr.

ring Samaritans now and ask them to reserve you a place on the phone queue for tomorrow haha

[cheshire snow]

bbc news 24 at 1530 seemed an upgrade for the region

C.S

[Lesley Johnson]

Is leyland the only place with the warmest temps at the mo, 3.3 here!

2.6 here

[frosty ground]

Looks like the GFS sends a bit more energy to the north west on this run.

[barkie]

from grey and cold and staring at green grass to upgrade !

snowball fight with the kids could be back on.

[Bartlett Low]

It def looks age on from 12z gfs, don't expect any quick changes from meto or bbc though.

Also we just need 18z to be better than last nights. Don't think it will be quite as good as this but should be better than sat nights.

[toccylad]

Light snow here

[HotCuppa]

we now have light snow!

[Bartlett Low]

Should read last night not sat night

[Backtrack]

12z has extra balloon data and variables factored in, this run will be the correct run, not just because its what we want to see, but because it ties in with the met office forecasts and especially the warning, expect upgrades from met office

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Pellets here