Scotland Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013>

[November13]

Precipitation band rattling through N Eiere.No sign of snow shield yet.

[A Winter's Tale]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167 - Updated Friday night and Saturday - looking good!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Forecast for the 24 hours from 6am Friday to 6am Saturday

Key:

1. The key lowland players in this game - southwest and inland eastern Scotland. This is where most of the action is likely to take place and where most of the snow pictures are likely to come from. Likelihood of 1 inch for most of the region if things go to plan, potential for more along the lines of 3-4 inches. However, this also represents the maximum possible extent of area 2, so proceed with a fair bit of caution.

2. Areas which are likely to see precipitation but not necessarily as snow. I've included the coastal strip of the southwest as, with a southerly wind and slightly poorer uppers than in the east, there's a risk of some modification. For the east, the risk is perhaps as great, if not greater due to the North Sea, and of course this area of modification could start to move further inland, particularly for bits of Fife and Angus, or could quite plausible retreat into the sea. Possibility of a cm or two.

3. Interesting possibilites for this region, because we're likely to see the precipitation spread into this area later in the period, potentially giving some fairly reasonable falls, although with the caveat that HC seems to have inadvertently installed some kind of snow shield so that might not help the cause in the Black Isle and hence it might be a bit sleety at the coasts. 1-2 inches possible here.

?: I know what you're thinking - 'for god's sakes man, why the hell draw a bloody map if you don't know what the weather's going to be like for most of us', and you might be right. Much of this area will see some precipitation, almost certainly convective stuff towards the end of the period, which could affect many central and southern parts, with the northern parts perhaps seeing the snowfall from zone 3 and also with western and southern parts, including the Glasgow area, still seeing the potential for some frontal stuff to make it to them. This is not a favoured area, but neither is anywhere completely off limits for snowfall tomorrow, so with the uncertainty I'd say don't expect anything here but if you were to then it would be the south and west of the region first, followed by the central and eastern bits spreading into western bits, followed by the far northwest, probably. Accumulation potential is probably higher than in zone 2, and some favoured parts could see quite a bit of unexpected snow.

! Snowiest non-mountainous areas, accumulations here are likely to be large, probably around 2 inches quite widely, potential for much more for the southwest and favoured bits of Angus and Aberdeenshire with frontal stuff and southeasterly streamers respectively.

!! The Cairngorms. Shoe in for 6-8 inches at least, probably near constantly, getting barraged from the north and the south. Shame so few live there.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Nasty nasty night, wind rattling down the chimney.

If I was stark naked out there I'd be dead in 30 minutes.

Although why the heck I'd be out there stark naked I have no idea.

I can testify to that, 20 minutes walking back from the station after band practice in my usual attire was bad enough:

[daboss]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167 - Updated Friday night and Saturday - looking good!

Glasgow finally getting a wee bit of snow?. Not surprised really, just in and it feels like its about to snow even now.

[Zenarcher]

Gusting up to 55mph here! Temp is 5c but the wind chill is freezing.

Although the forecast is showing snow still for my island the wind is coming from a SE direction I've ever had snow from that way it's always been a cold Northerly that brings the snow for here.

All I want is to see scenes like this again,

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167 - Updated Friday night and Saturday - looking good!

Odd discrepancies with the MO still though:

http://www.metoffice...-3.33&lat=56.29

Snow extent could be that far west plausibly, I'm just not entirely sure why there'd be nothing in the east at the same time. Although good luck to you, I think the west certainly has a decent shot, better/just as good as/not quite as good as the internally inconsistent office is suggesting.

Edited January 18, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[Zenarcher]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167 - Updated Friday night and Saturday - looking good!

They've even bothered to give me snow too,

[Glaswegianblizzard]

This forecast leaves me very disappointed. It's like there's a little finger along the clyde that will get no snow whatsoever, whereas much of the rest of Scotland will get something. Feel picked upon.

Ordinarily I would be quite enjoying what we have, but given whats on offer, then it's a big let down. Hope you folks saying it's short term pain for long term gain are proven right.

Of course, being from Glasgow, I should maybe just be thankful it's not raining. It's not going to rain, is it?

Edited January 18, 2013 by Glaswegianblizzard

[Isolated Frost]

Check out the yr.no precip from the hi-res EC , LS. Very good at picking out convection.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Check out the yr.no precip from the hi-res EC , LS. Very good at picking out convection.

Very true, although this is a big test for it from my perspective because I've used it before in easterly setups.

[Isolated Frost]

The dynamics of the North Sea seem to favour high intensity snow showers moving first from the SE and then the ESE, from the southern North Sea tomorrow. It looks like NE England, and E Scotland should see very heavy, scattered showers, banding up at times. This probably means both regions are very snowy tomorrow, from morning onwards, with NE Scotland and E Scotland in the firing line. EC dynamics plot a SE/ESE flow come Saturday with strong convection, so lighter or moderate snow shrs for the NE of England/SE of Scotland, and more, very heavy snow showers for NE Scotland and E Scotland.

Sunday, the focus shifts further south- and so the snow showers move in from the E, originally strong in E Scotland, moving into SE Scotland and NE England, for a very snowy wknd.

All eastern coastal counties in NE England and Scotland should be prepared for some heavy convective snow shrs on the wknd, backed up by the NMM and HD-ECM. The focus of these showers shift, but all regions on the east coast, and further inland at times, should be effected with 10-20cm over the next 3 day period in many, the possibility for more also exists.

[applemint]

Entertainment value only but latest take on things from Piers Corbyn.

http://www.weatherac...e.asp?a=513&c=5

That dude seems to be nuttier than squirrel poop:

http://zelo-street.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/express-weather-desperation-explained.html

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/05/putting-piers-corbyn-to-the-test/

[Sunny Leith]

That's your invitation cancelled for the summer Buckfast Party at Leith Links. Just you get back to your bungalow with your snobby inside toilet ! :-0

Well.... you are from Leith...

[types a Staid South Suburban]

[spindrift1980]

!! The Cairngorms. Shoe in for 6-8 inches at least, probably near constantly, getting barraged from the north and the south. Shame so few live there.

Plenty of walkers, climbers, ski-ers and summer snow-patch observers would welcome Cairngorms snow (even if not necessarily from an ideal wind direction) - don't worry about that!

[gsteruk]

really have no idea what to think for central, so many conflicting views. i saw a comment earlier saying some light flakes......but alas i dont see any evidence of any. its certainly very cold - below zero im sure but no way to be sure at the mo. be an interesting weekend, just hopefully not too dissapointing

[igloo]

looks like we will miss the snaw this time after wednesdays forecast for blizzards not all surprising with a monster block to our east its sure not the first time this has happend.the wind here is really having a good blow with the temp at -1.3c its bitter cold with the wind

[Sunny Leith]

You Fifers are hardcore !

I can testify to that, 20 minutes walking back from the station after band practice in my usual attire was bad enough:

[Isolated Frost]

Here is my (paint job again!) prediction for convective snowfall between 0600 Friday 18 January and 1800 Sunday 20 January

[NorthernRab]

0'C with a dew point of -6'C in Inverness, not a night to be falling over drunk in the Highland capital!

[LomondSnowstorm]

First showers starting to head inland further south now, brushing the Borders coast and almost reaching Dundee.

[Stormeh]

Just in from work. BBC weather seems to think most of Scotland will get some heavy snow showers tomorrow night. I sure hope Glasgow gets some.

[Guest]

The front doesn't look like visiting Belfast let alone Scotland.

[Snowplough33]

Good morning.

I have just woken up and can confirm that the first shower to come to land here this morning is snow. Ground is white

[Snowplough33]

The dynamics of the North Sea seem to favour high intensity snow showers moving first from the SE and then the ESE, from the southern North Sea tomorrow. It looks like NE England, and E Scotland should see very heavy, scattered showers, banding up at times. This probably means both regions are very snowy tomorrow, from morning onwards, with NE Scotland and E Scotland in the firing line. EC dynamics plot a SE/ESE flow come Saturday with strong convection, so lighter or moderate snow shrs for the NE of England/SE of Scotland, and more, very heavy snow showers for NE Scotland and E Scotland.

Sunday, the focus shifts further south- and so the snow showers move in from the E, originally strong in E Scotland, moving into SE Scotland and NE England, for a very snowy wknd.

All eastern coastal counties in NE England and Scotland should be prepared for some heavy convective snow shrs on the wknd, backed up by the NMM and HD-ECM. The focus of these showers shift, but all regions on the east coast, and further inland at times, should be effected with 10-20cm over the next 3 day period in many, the possibility for more also exists.

This is clearly an extract from Fiftey Shades Of Snow.