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South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 20/01/13 10z------------->

A.J

By A.J
in Regional

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Fred Sykes Contributor

Fred Sykes

Posted
  • Location: Warminster (Wiltshire)
  • Weather Preferences: what's the bloody point when you live in Britain
  • Location: Warminster (Wiltshire)
Posted

CORNWALL, you will fight the mild air on the beaches, fight it on lands end, fight in the hills and the streets. You must never surrender! If if that mild air comes, I know that the rest of the west country with its mighty cider drinking snow ramping army, will come to your rescue and fight of that mild air to deliver you to snow heaven victory!

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festivalking Experienced

festivalking

Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
Posted

Looks like a lot of snowy ppn to the southwest of that last frame. Surely it should be rain out over the sea? Hope not and hope it comes onto land.

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coldfingers Enthusiast

coldfingers

Posted
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex
Posted

CORNWALL, you will fight the mild air on the beaches, fight it on lands end, fight in the hills and the streets. You must never surrender! If if that mild air comes, I know that the rest of the west country with its mighty cider drinking snow ramping army, will come to your rescue and fight of that mild air to deliver you to snow heaven victory!

Hahahahaha, open all your freezer doors guys.

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

The NAE has been changing quite a lot recently, and although we are getting some consistency with the feature Monday into Tuesday, it would only take a small shift to bring more of the region into the snow zone!!!

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rowieboyz Newbie

rowieboyz

Posted
  • Location: Princetown Dartmoor
  • Location: Princetown Dartmoor
Posted

Been out all day and just popped on to see if our cornish friends are going to get a dumping of the white stuff, its close guys................its coming!

I hope it will be worth the long wait for you lot. Best of luck.

Jase

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Yet the dew points are below 0°c i thought if thats the case it would fall as snow even if the 850hpa arn't quite on are side?

WBFL

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

NAE 48

Brilliant run for those in Glos,Wilts, 15cms+ for some. Still time for change though maybe more of the region could get in on the snow.

13012218_2018.gif

That's more like it, now for a shift sw, by around 75 miles and BINGO IMBY, although snow is copious not far down the road, Poole and Bournemouth missed out really as it all turned to rain in the afternoon, so I want a shift west please!!

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swsnowlover Newbie

swsnowlover

Posted
  • Location: Beaworthy, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in Winter, sunny in Summer :-)
  • Location: Beaworthy, Devon
Posted

I am right on the Devon/Cornwall borders (Devon side) and over 600 feet above sea level and really hoping to see some snow. I've had to stop going on Facebook as I've got a bad case of snow envy looking at all my friends' pics..... Grrrrrr !!

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Nice little link here for you guys, looks ok in Newquay for wintry PPN http://www.newquayweather.com/wxlive.php

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

Exactly. Modified NAE precipitation type at 18z looks similar to raw but with wintry extension slightly S and W plus over Exmoor.

Would this fall as snow over somerset or be a rain event going of current NAE?

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Exactly. Modified NAE precipitation type at 18z looks similar to raw but with wintry extension slightly S and W plus over Exmoor.

With Bristol literally on the "changeover" line, its going to prove a very difficult forecast for the city.

North white, south wet? Who knows!

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dec10snow Aficionado

dec10snow

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted (edited)

Exactly. Modified NAE precipitation type at 18z looks similar to raw but with wintry extension slightly S and W plus over Exmoor.

Always a good sign, keep them coming Ian! By the way, don't swap jobs! :p

Not sure what I'm on about?? Go to Ian's twitter! :)

Edited by dec10snow
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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

Did I just spot a "white" tip of Cornwall on the BBC weather graphics!!!

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Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

With Bristol literally on the "changeover" line, its going to prove a very difficult forecast for the city.

North white, south wet? Who knows!

Move that changeover line 20 miles south west and I'll be happy :)

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Did I just spot a "white" tip of Cornwall on the BBC weather graphics!!!

Was that for tonight or this week coming? :D

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Move that changeover line 20 miles south west and I'll be happy :)

Me too! :p :p

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Apparently 0.1c in Falmouth now but DP still at -3c. :)

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Thermohaline Conveyor Apprentice

Thermohaline Conveyor

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds
Posted

T42 for North Somerset/Wilts/Glouc.....BINGO!

post-4149-0-44002800-1358719917_thumb.gi

Good to see some consistency between NAE runs, however ECM is fluctuating and has the front further West and the low pressure further South. The PPN signal is inconsistent in both terms of intensity and regional coverage. Generally the lack of support denotes just how complex this synoptic evolution is and if we don't get any model concensus soon, we'll be looking at a now-cast. There's a slight PPN signal for some light snow to develop across Hampshire extending into Berkshire and into the London area. For the West Country, highest chance of some light snow will be to the North of the region across Gloucestershire as the low continues to migrate and a slight signal across coastal regions of Dorset and Hampshire. Tuesday, is becoming more and more confusing and fresh eyes will be needed on this one tomorrow.

Taking a mean out of the guidance, one would forecast snow primarily Bristol area into parts of Gloucestershire, N Dorset, N Somerset and into Hampshire. The northern extent and intensity of the latest 18Z NAE goes against the grain and unless support by other models evolves or NAE drops back to a more Westerly or Southerly low, things will continue to remain uncertain. You can certainly see why the MO have been broad in the assignation of the yellow zone.

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

Was that for tonight or this week coming? biggrin.png

5am, just rewound it for you, started as rain tonight. Although Alex Deaken said "wet" weather in far south west, Icey. Very marginal I would say, but you never know, might see some falling if not settling.

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Paul T Explorer

Paul T

Posted
  • Location: Portishead
  • Location: Portishead
Posted

Can I just highlight that the front to the SW of Cornwall has moved 30 miles towards land in 2 hours!!

I would go to bed and have a browse out the curtains at 4am if I was you!!

Good luck and good night!

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

I should not of gone up the hill sledging today.

I now have an even stronger will for more snow as I remember how addictive it is! :(

So much fun. Shame any possible snowfall us during the week :( Cant go out and play during a work day lol.

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