South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 22/01/13 00z------------->

[BristolBlizzard]

Is it pivoting too early?

[twister2005]

Just a case of wait and see up here fingers crossed :-D

[Man With Beard]

Just to emphasise to people, Winds are due to switch to NE'ly this afternoon, brining in colder uppers. This will increasing turn the PPN from rain to snow later.

I've had a high of 3c and hour ago, been light rain since then and now my temperature is 2.1c. Clearly evaporative cooling is coming into play.

SM

Yes, here in Drayton the rain has got a little more "icy", wouldn't call it sleet but wouldn't rule out a switch to snow later

[rowieboyz]

Still snowing here, been mosrtly moderate to heavy most of the day but strangely not much accumalation.

Jase

[fromey]

Light flurrys here gibby, wind is getting a little gusty as well

[Kiwi]

Nothing here yet Kiwi. I think I am about 20 miles south of you? It can't be far away!

Yes, I've just checked with friends in Four Marks --nothing happening there yet either...despite the (inaccurate) radar showing otherwise.

Good luck!

[thunderhead 2005]

Snowing here in tidworth, this is going to be an interesting rush hour...

[offerman]

2nd that Gibby.Radstock lower than Frome but it will be over there soon.

Looks like its starting as snow which is great as depths will be better and lay on existing 2/3inches we have left.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Is it moving north faster than expected? Met office doesn't snow any precip until 6PM light snow

[Dean E]

Can report slight freezing rain here, the paths have become icy and there's a layer of ice on top of the snow now! Temperature on the decrease

SM

[Polar Bear]

Hey all ...looking interesting..let me know if anything develops for newbury ... ...I work In reading and really would like to be home safe and warm before any potential disruption (if it goes that way that is! )

Edited January 22, 2013 by Polar Bear

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Temp rising to 0.7/-0.2

[snowponies]

Definitely much more snow than rain now!! Quite heavy too. Only bummer is the ground is now wet from the rain so it's unlikely to settle

Where abouts in Devon are you? Still raining here and not as heavy, really thought I'd get snow here considering I'm quite high up, is very bitter here too, just hoping later it turns to snow, not sure of the chances though. Good luck to everyone further north you lucky things

[gottolovethisweather]

Hey all ...looking interesting..let me know if anything develops for newbury ... ...I work In reading and really would like to be home safe and warm before any potential disruption (if it goes that way that is! )

PB, I would leave early if at all possible.

[Timer]

Yes, I've just checked with friends in Four Marks --nothing happening there yet either...despite the (inaccurate) radar showing otherwise.

Good luck!

Nothing yet in Alton despite radar showing light rain. a fair bit of heavier precipitation to our SW.

Temp here +1.5C. No way of measuring dewpoints I'm afraid.

[Theresnoway]

I'm touching a very large piece of wood at the moment.

What you get up to in your own time is up to you!

[jmcy9999]

The wind is picking up in Swindon - not what sure that means though

Edited January 22, 2013 by jmcy9999

[tufty]

Temp 4.1 in stubbington, was 4.3 earlier,so is decreasing......too near the sea so only think rain for us here.

[Sungirl]

I haven't claimed a yes or no yet Sungirl but please do watch the radars, and follow the percipitation type posts where at all possible. This event could lead to a very difficult rush-hour later on.

Happy to report that I am at home with the kids and have no intention of leaving the house! Feel very sorry for people who have to deal with snow/freezing rain in rush hour :/

Just to emphasise to people, Winds are due to switch to NE'ly this afternoon, brining in colder uppers. This will increasing turn the PPN from rain to snow later.

I've had a high of 3c and hour ago, been light rain since then and now my temperature is 2.1c. Clearly evaporative cooling is coming into play.

SM

Wind here is NE already....

[gottolovethisweather]

Just reposting AWDs post from earlier, should you guys n gals not have seen it.

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Your right to a degree GTLTW, but remember that from now on, as the system rotates slowly WNW along an occlusion travelling east, colder air from the ENE will slowly undercut it.

This is the radar as of 12:20;

And this is the latest NAE forecast for midday (the 20mins differential shouldn't make too much difference);

All in all, so far not to disimiliar. Now the current 850hpa and Dewpoints for midday;

You can see that southernmost counties have slightly less cold air over them, with a weak feed of S/SW air causing th Dewpoints to rise slightly;

Therefore no surprise to hear of reports of rain in Devon, Dorset and Hampshire currently. However, fast forward 6 hours and the flow turns increasingly E/SE. As the low pressure in the channel starts drawing in a continental feed, reducing Dewpoints and 850hpa temps;

The low pressure in the channel not really moving anywhere, and the PPN around it is simply just pivoting west in an increasingly E/SE feed. At 18:00 the PPN is here;

Due to all the pivoting and rotating around the centre of the LP in the channel, its not really moved any great distance, just about reaching the M4/Bristol area by 18:00. It does however develop further due to the increasingly cold airmass mixing in with it. No surprise to see it turning to snow by this time then;

So the chance are, for Newbury, the main bulk of PPN would arrive after the cold air has dug down, therefore limiting any rainfall to drizzle beforehand. This would apply to most northern counties of our region.

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[Mapantz]

I've just hit the 10mm mark for rain!

[rowieboyz]

Where abouts in Devon are you? Still raining here and not as heavy, really thought I'd get snow here considering I'm quite high up, is very bitter here too, just hoping later it turns to snow, not sure of the chances though. Good luck to everyone further north you lucky things

Would you mind me asking where on Dartmoor you are? I would have thought being 300masl you would have similar conditions to me

Jase

[Polar Bear]

PB, I would leave early if at all possible.

Thanks GTLTW I went by train so dont have to drive...I best keep an eye on the train situation first (if there is no snow here they wont really take kindly to me going!). But if you would be so kind to let me know if there is settling snow at Newbs I can then leg it. I have the forum page up all the time!

[Island Singer]

Sleetly rain in Lyndhurst in the new forest atm....snow rapidly vanishing but temps down from 4 to 2c...

[Snowkissed]

The lunchtime BBC news looked as though it is only rain for us in Dorset