Spring Weather Chat

[feb1991blizzard]

Ah by 'heat' I'm talking 30c+ which has been extremely rare since July 2006 (perhaps only 4 occasions since?). 25c is not hot!

In contrast it has been cold for about 40-50% of this winter (just look at British Gas profit announcement!) and for plenty of other recent winters too.

If you don't like cold you've had a bad few years but if you don't like heat you've had only a few weeks at most in 6 years to complain about!

If your only taking daytime MAX temps of 30c (+9c anomaly for mid summer) as hot then you need to do the reverse for cold, in which case it is nothing like 40-50%, you need to take 9c of the average, ie- -2c Max temps are cold.

[feb1991blizzard]

Thats been ditched now its back to its old name of Model Discussion

Yes, it had to be really, i wonder what the spring one should be called, the hunt for 'average' or 'mixed' weather maybe!!

[hillbilly]

higher summer temps dont always equate to good summers am sure there have been many that havnt been that cold but rain a lot will have to look at some figures

[summer blizzard]

+qbo and -mei I assume is the likely scenairo going into summer. What's the best combo +qbo and +mei? Also how are we doing analogue wise SB?

Certainly a +QBO and strengthening (i think will be a positive) but i'm not so sure about the MEI, we still have an active MJO and warm waters to the west of the ENSO zone. I don't think we can rule out +MEI conditions even if close to neutral.

I'll check.

Edited February 27, 2013 by summer blizzard

[Summer Sun]

UK weather pattern keeps spring waiting

Despite the subtle hints of spring last week, winter has maintained its grip on the UK's weather. Little has also changed from day to day. So why is the weather so static? Matt Taylor explains.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/21601261

[Aaron]

On the subject of summers - 2010 was great from my point of view, July in particular was consistently warm (avg. max 21.6C) but never hot with a maximum temperature of 27.2C

[Bottesford]

If your only taking daytime MAX temps of 30c (+9c anomaly for mid summer) as hot then you need to do the reverse for cold, in which case it is nothing like 40-50%, you need to take 9c of the average, ie- -2c Max temps are cold.

Arg you can prove anything with facts...

Perhaps look at it another way - for how many months of the year must you heat your home or wear protective warming layers vs how many months must you actively try to cool your home or keep cool when walking around? And for that one it is definitely skewed in the cold direction! A very unscientific argument yes but there you go...

[Aaron]

^^ depends on the person and environment. In my house, I find myself cooling off more often than not because it gets very stuffy here, uncomfortably so, but is rarely very cold. Good insulation I suppose, and direct exposure to the sun in my two living room windows.

Edited February 27, 2013 by Aaron

[feb1991blizzard]

Arg you can prove anything with facts...

Perhaps look at it another way - for how many months of the year must you heat your home or wear protective warming layers vs how many months must you actively try to cool your home or keep cool when walking around? And for that one it is definitely skewed in the cold direction! A very unscientific argument yes but there you go...

Yes i agree i wear a coat or heat the home on a fairly regular basis throughout 6 months or so but i can honestly say that i need to do it far less than i actually do, the amount of time i wear a coat out in winter and end up with my scalp itching and wish i had not at around 10c is quite often.

[Bottesford]

^^ depends on the person and environment. In my house, I find myself cooling off more often than not because it gets very stuffy here, uncomfortably so, but is rarely very cold. Good insulation I suppose, and direct exposure to the sun in my two living room windows.

Sounds like our office - absolutely boiling today in sunshine (lovely) but soon as the sun goes it becomes freezing rapidly. My house of course remains the same old tale I've banged on about forever - cold and the gas is burning away now (we just hit 20c at last!).

Surely thought the most comfortable weather is when the temperature outside is the same as you'd like it indoors - so roughly 21c? Then you can roam in 'n out as you please...

[Alex]

If your only taking daytime MAX temps of 30c (+9c anomaly for mid summer) as hot then you need to do the reverse for cold, in which case it is nothing like 40-50%, you need to take 9c of the average, ie- -2c Max temps are cold.

Yes but if I was being picky, places in the southeast such as London/Essex have a max average is 23c in July so 30c is only 7c above which is about 0c in winter and December 2010 averaged around 1-2c avg max so we could easily have a summer month averaging close to 30c. Heathrow had 28.5c in July 2006.

Edited February 27, 2013 by Alex

[summer blizzard]

On the subject of summers - 2010 was great from my point of view, July in particular was consistently warm (avg. max 21.6C) but never hot with a maximum temperature of 27.2C

I thought that March-June 2010 was nice because it was a mostly sunny period and the June got quite warm, july 2010 however was horribly humid and dull.

[Guest pjl20101]

By the way can some spring 2004 archive charts be posted? As this year is a strong analogue of it as with 1990 as well.

[Aaron]

I thought that March-June 2010 was nice because it was a mostly sunny period and the June got quite warm, july 2010 however was horribly humid and dull.

Hm, July 2010 was certainly very dull here. I don't recall it being too bad though in terms of humidity, but a quick check of historical records show many days with the dew point reaching the high teens with temps in the low to mid twenties, one day even had a high of 21C and a dew point of 18C - yuck.

Edited February 27, 2013 by Aaron

[Thundery wintry showers]

Wetterzentrale has the most comprehensive synoptic chart archives. From the following site you can click on March 2004 and then increment forwards by day, month or year:

http://www.wetterzen...n/fsreaeur.html

March 2004 was indeed a changeable month with a wide range of weather types, but other than briefly around the 11th-13th, it didn't really have the sort of synoptic setup that is being projected for early March 2013, with southerly tracking depressions, extensive high-latitude blocking and an east Atlantic trough keeping the UK in relatively mild air. I have a feeling that this year's March may end up rather less varied, with fairly persistent northern blocking likely and troughing to the west and south.

April 2004 was warm but dull and wet for most, while May 2004 was a warm dry and sunny month for most, but less so than the Mays of 1989, 1990, 1992 and 2001.

Spring 1990 was a very different type of spring- a very "westerly" March which was warm, dry and sunny for most of England (a particularly warm, sunny spell around the 16th-18th due to southerly winds), but cloudy in the north-west and very wet in W Scotland. April 1990 was quite varied synoptically but most regions were drier and somewhat sunnier than average, and May was a generally warm dry sunny month, especially near the beginning.

I was in Norwich during July 2010 and I remember a noteworthy spell of hot dry sunny weather from the 22nd June to 4th July (temperatures consistently in the range of 25 to 30C), and mostly dry, generally sunny and warm/hot weather through to midmonth, a week of changeable showery thundery weather and then a cooler, dry cloudy last week. Furhter north and west, though, the month was generally dull after the first few days.

Edited February 27, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Alex]

Wetterzentrale has the most comprehensive synoptic chart archives. From the following site you can click on March 2004 and then increment forwards by day, month or year:

http://www.wetterzen...n/fsreaeur.html

March 2004 was indeed a changeable month with a wide range of weather types, but other than briefly around the 11th-13th, it didn't really have the sort of synoptic setup that is being projected for early March 2013, with southerly tracking depressions, extensive high-latitude blocking and an east Atlantic trough keeping the UK in relatively mild air. I have a feeling that this year's March may end up rather less varied, with fairly persistent northern blocking likely and troughing to the west and south.

April 2004 was warm but dull and wet for most, while May 2004 was a warm dry and sunny month for most, but less so than the Mays of 1989, 1990, 1992 and 2001.

Spring 1990 was a very different type of spring- a very "westerly" March which was warm, dry and sunny for most of England (a particularly warm, sunny spell around the 16th-18th due to southerly winds), but cloudy in the north-west and very wet in W Scotland. April 1990 was quite varied synoptically but most regions were drier and somewhat sunnier than average, and May was a generally warm dry sunny month, especially near the beginning.

I was in Norwich during July 2010 and I remember a noteworthy spell of hot dry sunny weather from the 22nd June to 4th July (temperatures consistently in the range of 25 to 30C), and mostly dry, generally sunny and warm/hot weather through to midmonth, a week of changeable showery thundery weather and then a cooler, dry cloudy last week. Furhter north and west, though, the month was generally dull after the first few days.

The met office has July 2010 as the 3rd warmest month in Norfolk. The persistent high pressure to the south of east anglia and the south east meant a vast national difference, the warm/hot spell if I am remember correctly lasted from the 22nd June to the 12th July but seemed to return with some further hot sunny days before the month end. Writtle in Essex consistantly seemed to record the highest temps during July 10. I took an average of almost 26c for the month which isn't far off from July 2006.

However August 10 was a complete washout! But I would be happy of a repeat of March 10 through to July 10 with a 2003 August weather type my preference!

[Guest pjl20101]

Actually Alex I rated August 2004 over July 2010 in the sense of more thundery activity, record night time minimum temps and the boscastle floods. On the MEI subject personally I think we are going to have it in positive territory for Spring and Summer but not by a significant amount if it makes sense.

[Alex]

Actually Alex I rated August 2004 over July 2010 in the sense of more thundery activity, record night time minimum temps and the boscastle floods. On the MEI subject personally I think we are going to have it in positive territory for Spring and Summer but not by a significant amount if it makes sense.

GP on the strat threat alluded to us being close to 1969 in terms of analogues, I took a look yesterday and tbh it looks a bit underwhelming, July was reasonable but June wasn't anything that great. August was pretty average. The key though for this summer is the PDO and the chances of it becoming positive! If this happens I think this summer may be better than some recent ones!

[Coast]

I've only three things to say about Spring 2013 now - bring it on!!!!!

[Milhouse]

Finally were here. Looking mild next week too which should bring on all the new growth. I just hope we dont get locked into a long unsettled regime like last year.

[Bottesford]

Last spring (and summer) were very unkind of wildlife (and human life tbh) - here's to a much better two seasons this year!

[Thundery wintry showers]

My feeling is that as we head into the second week of March the weather may turn rather unkind to both those after snow and those after some warm sunshine. The signals that I'm seeing favour low pressure to the west and south of the British Isles, centred to the SW, and a flow from east of south, which reminds me of March 1996. There is still time for that to change of course- just a slight revision to that pattern could bring us into south-westerlies on the southern flank of the lows, or colder north-easterlies if the lows end up further south, but I'm not seeing a lot for snow lovers to get excited over at the moment. For warm sunshine, the next few days are looking the best bet.

[Guest pjl20101]

To be honest TWS my gut feeling is we will have a return of the westerlies type of set up and that pattern could linger for a while. Night times will never be too cold, but daytime temperatures will be nothing to write home about.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Thank goodness March is here. Desperate for the sun to shine and see a few 15s on the map next week rather than 5s..

[Weather-history]

4 weeks to Good Friday.