South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 31st January 2013

[ChartViewer]

Got my 'mate fingers' crossed, too, CV.

Hehe.....Glad to see Chelsea losing at Newcastle today mate....brings us all back a bit together ...Stil think you have a fantastic squad and better manager with AVB than HR

Edited February 2, 2013 by ChartViewer

[alexisj9]

Anyone reckon Gatwick airport will have got the hang of snow by the morning of the 13th? Flying out for my uncle's Jersey funeral that morning… of course the first time I've used an airport in 6 years, it might be out of action.

With all their new equipment, I doubt they will be completely closed down. Also it really is to early to forcast for the 13th so do not worry yet.

If it does happen to snow on that day, just phone them before you leave to check the status of your flight.

[Methuselah]

Hehe.....Glad to see Chelsea losing at Newcastle today mate....brings us all back a bit together ...Stil think you have a fantastic squad and better manager with AVB than HR

Man Ure have just got another lucky win! Chance of snow, Tuesday??

[Jason T]

Hmmmm, VERY Quite on tonight, Considering the potential for next week.

[CWT2012]

My flight on the 7th is looking less and less likely with each run

[Chris D]

Haven't really been on the forums much in the last couple of weeks, and I have to be honest, after having that "adequately" cold weather with a "adequate" amount of snow earlier in January, I don't really mind if the weather is this or that for the rest of the winter. I just like interesting weather, i.e. hot/cold, windy, stormy etc.; it's just that my favourite type of weather happens to be snow!

I just get the impression that incoming cold/snowy weather takes over people lives almost! That being said, I wouldn't mind another fairly shortlived cold spell (as long as its not between 8th-11th Feb as I'm visiting home) - I'm not asking much lol

Edited February 2, 2013 by Chris D

[Snowangel-MK]

Evening all....

Temperature 0.3 °C

Dew Point -3.1 °C

...gritters are out in MK

[Guest bjaykent]

Hmmmm, VERY Quite on tonight, Considering the potential for next week.

I think the key word is still potential, athough ecm looks very nice for a potential easterly down the line, there is still some doubt, UKMO needs a few more runs to see if it will follow ecm or move towards GFS (which is still improving run on run towards cold but still hasn't developed an easterly because of that pesky PV). Although next week certainly looks cold, I don't see a lot of snow in SE until we see a change to a more easterly flow. I guess we just wait and see, a couple more days of similar runs and we hopefully should see the excitement building in here. As always I look to JP's thoughts. I still think the UKMO will hold the key, have not been impressed with GFS of late.

[fulham snow]

Man Ure have just got another lucky win! Chance of snow, Tuesday??

Very unlucky FFC just got back from game,hit post 3 times.

Very cold there glad of hand warmers

[john pike]

tomorrow

light to moderate north west flow

raining from around lunchtime to around 5 oclock showery rather than heavy

temps around 8 degrees

sunday night

gusty north west wind

starts dry but some strong gusty showers rattling through (thundery possible)

temps around 5 -6 degrees

monday

very gusty north west wind

after showers clear early it should stay dry

temperatures around 6 but dropping off quickly in the afternoon

monday night

bitterly cold and strong north west wind

cold around 0 degrees with a bitter windchill

showers poss but likely to be rain (subject to change)

tuesday

bitterly cold north west winds

troughs possible and will more likely be snow where they show up

temps around 2 degrees but will be a huge windchill

more firm on this tomorrow

wednesday

very cold and strong north east wind

a low pressure system close to the east with a trough straddling the south east

very cold 0 degrees

at present this looks like a higher risk of snow but at present is subject to change

thursday

cold north west wind

still in 528 dam air

trough running down from the north east

0-2 degrees

possible showers of snow but look light at present

[Guest bjaykent]

tomorrow

light to moderate north west flow

raining from around lunchtime to around 5 oclock showery rather than heavy

temps around 8 degrees

sunday night

gusty north west wind

starts dry but some strong gusty showers rattling through (thundery possible)

temps around 5 -6 degrees

monday

very gusty north west wind

after showers clear early it should stay dry

temperatures around 6 but dropping off quickly in the afternoon

monday night

bitterly cold and strong north west wind

cold around 0 degrees with a bitter windchill

showers poss but likely to be rain (subject to change)

tuesday

bitterly cold north west winds

troughs possible and will more likely be snow where they show up

temps around 2 degrees but will be a huge windchill

more firm on this tomorrow

wednesday

very cold and strong north east wind

a low pressure system close to the east with a trough straddling the south east

very cold 0 degrees

at present this looks like a higher risk of snow but at present is subject to change

thursday

cold north west wind

still in 528 dam air

trough running down from the north east

0-2 degrees

possible showers of snow but look light at present

Thanks John, looks like a cold week ahead and hopefuilly increasingly snowy. GFS 18Z pants again even 18z NOGAPS likes an easterly

[john pike]

after reading the which model is right thread i think people have actually missed

next weeks weather

[Guest bjaykent]

after reading the which model is right thread i think people have actually missed

next weeks weather

Twitter - the death of meaningful weather forecasts! LOL

[Jan_Bromley]

Thanks John.

[alexisj9]

Looks like people are waiting for the daily mail artical.

Big snow storm to hit starting monday night till wendsday.

Although they will probably say till march or something lol.

[john pike]

Twitter - the death of meaningful weather forecasts! LOL

i reckon someone hacked the weather forecasts as well

[Guest bjaykent]

Looks like people are waiting for the daily mail artical.

Big snow storm to hit starting monday night till wendsday.

Although they will probably say till march or something lol.

sad but true, i'm proud to say that I haven't bought a single daily newspaper in the last 25 years

[john pike]

sad but true, i'm proud to say that I haven't bought a single daily newspaper in the last 25 years

would you buy one if i did a daily ramp edition

[Guest bjaykent]

would you buy one if i did a daily ramp edition

as long as it is a free online edition with no editorial towards mild conditions.LOL

[john pike]

gfs 120

ecm120

fax chart 120

from my viewing these

the closest matches are fax and ecm

we will know on monday night which model is correct

or if they are all wrong

main noticeable missing feature is the low pressure way to the west

that is what will be the decider over the next couple of days

Edited February 2, 2013 by john pike

[Guest bjaykent]

gfs 120

ecm120

fax chart 120

from my viewing these

the closest matches are fax and ecm

we will know on monday night which model is correct

or if they are all wrong

main noticeable missing feature is the low pressure way to the west

that is what will be the decider over the next couple of days

Seems to be an outbreak of ecm will backtrack/end of winter gloom in the mod thread, have to agree with you John these people don't even seem to care what weather we have coming next week. In fact plenty of one liner posters who I would happily see transfer to twitter permanently!

[ZONE 51]

Hi all

GFS 18z fires off our cold wintry blast from Tuesday morning,

500/1000 hpa Thickness 0600hrs Tuesday

Zooming into the same chart as above:

528 dam line clears south coast by early Tuesday morning

Wintry week coming up next week! we get several chances where we could see sleet/snow, a lot will change with the snow areas/amounts, and i expect an upgrade to the cold/snow situation next week, i also expect early warnings to be issued on Sunday by the METO, for UK snow, and to include parts of our region.

Edited February 2, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[alexisj9]

I don't go into the mod thread that often TBH, I was in there over christmas, saw all the moaning about the failed easterly, ok so the cold spell we thought we were going to get didn't happen, but we still had a few cold days, with a dusting in places. Then everyone was moaning about zonal and most totally missed there was a cold spell on the way because of that moaning. Then all everyone was doing was moaning cause the cold spell kept looking like it was going to finish. I like the posters that talk about the modles, even when they argue about what the modles are saying, thats the point of the thread, but all the moaning just should not be there.

[john pike]

gfs ensembles now saying cold to the 10th

so another cold day added

from the 5th - 9th mean line around -7

10th -5

fi is the 10th as a 15 degree spread

finding this funny as there are nowt wrong with these

not huge prcipitation to the 10th but not necessary a lot needed where snow is concerned

[Tamara]

after reading the which model is right thread i think people have actually missed

next weeks weather

Hi John - as a relative newcomer to this regional thread, I am getting accustomed to seeing your model summaries most days. I appreciate them for sure like so many others from our region, as an aside from the MOD thread