South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 31st January 2013

[BLUNT]

GFS is showing Atlantic type weather nothing really over cold for the 11th

[john pike]

Like the -12c air edging in! Bitterly cold over Scandinavia too!

[john pike]

GFS is showing Atlantic type weather nothing really over cold for the 11th

ha ha

wait for the 18z

bet it will be different

i think gfs past 120 has been awful this winter

stick to max on ecm and use gfs ensembles as a guide only

[yamkin]

ha ha

wait for the 18z

bet it will be different

i think gfs past 120 has been awful this winter

stick to max on ecm and use gfs ensembles as a guide only

I agree JP. Best stick with ECM. GFS has backed down a few times lately and followed ECM.

ECM, ECM, ECM

[Isabellesnanny]

What are the chances for snow in this region for next week ( Croydon area)?

[BLUNT]

ECM is better to use? why are these so different from each other? most people use the GFS dont they?

[john pike]

What are the chances for snow in this region for next week ( Croydon area)?

i am waiting for tonights fax for the 5th and 6th

[BLUNT]

Always best only look at the next week, I think they have all been out somewhere, I think only as a guide past a week

[john pike]

ECM is better to use? why are these so different from each other? most people use the GFS dont they?

gfs is only hi resolution up to 180

about as far as you want to look

if you look through the ensembles you can get a guide past that

i use gfs past that for my ramp charts and use the fax chart for forecasts and ecm to go to 240

[john pike]

tomorrow

cold north-north westerly wind

looks mainly dry

however late afternoon a chance of some light snow showers

unlikely to cause any disruption as will be very light

cold day 1-3 degrees

tomorrow night

cold and possible frost forming overnight

wind will be west to north west

staying dry

sunday

light to moderate north west wind

starts dry

however showers ,some heavy moving through in the afternoon

temperatures around 8 degrees

should clear around 5pm

sunday night

light to moderate north west winds

temperatures around 3-5 degrees

showers around overnight some heavy

monday looks mainly dry

very cold and strong north west winds

528 dam cold air en-route from the north

temperatures max of 5 degrees but in the wind very cold windchill

late afternoon we could see some wintry showers

this chart could be amended tomorrow so this is a guide tonight

the low to our north just over scotland is much further south than last night ( which is good)

update when the updates are available

[blackprince]

Hi John nice to see most of your charts are coldish to cold. Have you heard about your interview for Croydon Council gritting inspector...lol no seriously any news..

[john pike]

Hi John nice to see most of your charts are coldish to cold. Have you heard about your interview for Croydon Council gritting inspector...lol no seriously any news..

hi mate

will not know until next week now

lot of people going for it

nothing new there then

let you know as soon as i find out

you know what is a shame

why do ecm not show the precipitation charts?

would make life a lot easier

[Ben_Cambs]

why do ecm not show the precipitation charts?

Here's the link to them mate:

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

[Jan_Bromley]

Thanks John for updates

Wholeheartily agree re precip on ECM. Perhaps we should all lobby them? lol

[john pike]

Here's the link to them mate:

http://en.vedur.is/w...ntic/#type=prec

hi ben

thanks for that

completely forgot about them on there

must be getting old

[Jan_Bromley]

Here's the link to them mate:

http://en.vedur.is/w...ntic/#type=prec

Thanks for the link Ben. Very useful

[Ben_Cambs]

Evening all, haven't been on the forum much over the past few days. A damp start to this morning but a lovely sunny afternoon. Hopefully with polar-sourced air during next week we should see plenty more sunshine (including tomorrow aswell).

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn902.png

[Ruthie]

Hi all, chilly here in the west. Looking forward to the six nations tomorrow and my home country of Wales starting against Ireland in Cardiff. Should be nice day there, shame no rain, when they close the roof that stadium noise is summat else!! Come on the boys.

[john pike]

will update tomorrow as changes are expected

these are both very cold and the second chart is brrrrrrrr

[HammerJack]

Thanks as always John P. if MasterCard done JP priceless.... ðŸ‘

[john pike]

gfs 18z

now watch the ensembles open the brandy

[Don]

gfs 18z

now watch the ensembles open the brandy

Hmm, pity those charts are not for T24! You never know, it might come off.......

[Paul Sherman]

will update tomorrow as changes are expected

these are both very cold and the second chart is brrrrrrrr

And the most important thing about that second chart John is the trough has cleared through the whole country at some point earlier, so might expect a band of wintriness to be on its way next week ?

One to watch for sure

[john pike]

And the most important thing about that second chart John is the trough has cleared through the whole country at some point earlier, so might expect a band of wintriness to be on its way next week ?

One to watch for sure

hi paul

thats the bit in between i want to see

that front could pass through here overnight

and reckon that would give some heavy snow for a time

not just here but across the uk as 528 dam air in place as well

see how it looks tomorrow

also paul look at the hook of the low pressure to our north east

the next run should show the low head south -south west

all looking very interesting again

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel...=0&type=0&ext=1

short ensembles still looking good to the 8th

fi there after

now lets wait for my ramp charts