South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 31st January 2013

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Cold weather on the way I hear? Superb!

[Coast]

Sill flat calm here, I have to hold my hands up as all the sources available in the last week had some windy weather. A big change from 5 days ago and shows you how charts can change!

[john pike]

cold to the 9th

starting on the 5th

looks dryish but not totally

ramp chart

[Jan_Bromley]

From Ian F, posted on the South West thread...............

Posted 16 minutes ago

I fail to see the hyperventilating about Tuesday versus any genuine winter extreme in strict sense of the term. Yes, a decidedly v cold feel thanks primarily to windchill rather than very low ambient temperature. But crucially, at this juncture, ensemble analysis offers little extra useful insight towards Tuesday, certainly none to support notion of a 'severe event' under accepted definition (Daily Express excepted). For example, through Tuesday, latest MOGREPS has no signal anywhere in UK for more than 5cm of snow. It then has a signal for more than 1cm, transferring from western Scotland across to the North Sea by Wednesday, coupled to a signal also for NW Wales. Conversely, the 12z ECMWF EPS does have a strong signal for more than 5cm of snow for western Scotland on Tuesday (but nowhere else at that amount), which it steadily reduces to a low probability for the whole of Scotland by Wednesday. If these combined ensemble signals were much more compelling, a warning would have been flagged as likely already... but whilst gale/severe gales are progged as well as snow showers, nothing I've heard in UKMO briefings, nor read in their latest analysis (issued 40 mins ago) screams of a 'severe event' versus accepted use of the term in a historical sense.

Edited by fergieweather, 15 minutes ago.

[Steve C]

Just home from the pub. I've put BBC1 on to see a fat, unfunny comic, with a squeaky voice, starring in a vampire film I've not heard of. Kind of unpleasant really. Will catch up on weather / snow forecast postings methinks.

Edited February 2, 2013 by Steve C

[john pike]

From Ian F, posted on the South West thread...............

Posted 16 minutes ago

I fail to see the hyperventilating about Tuesday versus any genuine winter extreme in strict sense of the term. Yes, a decidedly v cold feel thanks primarily to windchill rather than very low ambient temperature. But crucially, at this juncture, ensemble analysis offers little extra useful insight towards Tuesday, certainly none to support notion of a 'severe event' under accepted definition (Daily Express excepted). For example, through Tuesday, latest MOGREPS has no signal anywhere in UK for more than 5cm of snow. It then has a signal for more than 1cm, transferring from western Scotland across to the North Sea by Wednesday, coupled to a signal also for NW Wales. Conversely, the 12z ECMWF EPS does have a strong signal for more than 5cm of snow for western Scotland on Tuesday (but nowhere else at that amount), which it steadily reduces to a low probability for the whole of Scotland by Wednesday. If these combined ensemble signals were much more compelling, a warning would have been flagged as likely already... but whilst gale/severe gales are progged as well as snow showers, nothing I've heard in UKMO briefings, nor read in their latest analysis (issued 40 mins ago) screams of a 'severe event' versus accepted use of the term in a historical sense.

Edited by fergieweather, 15 minutes ago.

also of more interest was this

Yup albeit cautionary note re such nuances at this range! Our primary concern for snow next week is potential for troughs running S in flow, plus other features beyond current model synthesis, tending to offer threat of more widespread falls at times but we're not going heavy on that story for now and will await NAE, UK4 & UKV output from later Sunday.

[Ice Day]

also of more interest was this

Yup albeit cautionary note re such nuances at this range! Our primary concern for snow next week is potential for troughs running S in flow, plus other features beyond current model synthesis, tending to offer threat of more widespread falls at times but we're not going heavy on that story for now and will await NAE, UK4 & UKV output from later Sunday.

Evening John, gradual upgrades being seen over the last couple of days, long may it continue. Did you see R J Smith's post on the model thread earlier, I wonder if you'd been giving him 'ramping' lessons????

[john pike]

Evening John, gradual upgrades being seen over the last couple of days, long may it continue. Did you see R J Smith's post on the model thread earlier, I wonder if you'd been giving him 'ramping' lessons????

ha ha

even i am not that impressive

i reckon we will see something tuesday to wednesday

a bit early to pinpoint exact

you never know rj smith might be right

would not put your mortgage on it though

[Ice Day]

ha ha

even i am not that impressive

i reckon we will see something tuesday to wednesday

a bit early to pinpoint exact

you never know rj smith might be right

would not put your mortgage on it though

But at least we're seeing some potential in the charts again after a quiet few days. Now where's ChartViewer with his Chinese charts????

[john pike]

Just home from the pub. I've put BBC1 on to see a fat, unfunny comic, with a squeaky voice, starring in a vampire film I've not heard of. Kind of unpleasant really. Will catch up on weather / snow forecast postings methinks.

hi steve

weather models are like vampires

the closer you get involved with them

the more likely they will suck the life out of you

[john pike]

But at least we're seeing some potential in the charts again after a quiet few days. Now where's ChartViewer with his Chinese charts????

hi ice things do look really good from tuesday onwards

i think a more longer spell rather than a short intense one

i also reckon we are in the best spot for this to keep going for a while

[Ice Day]

i also reckon we are in the best spot for this to keep going for a while

Yes, I think this region is owed one for winter thus far!!!

[mark24374]

so whats the chances of snow.

Edited February 2, 2013 by mark24374

[Great Plum]

Morning all, been off for a few days in Center Parcs with the family... Have I missed anything?

[tinybill]

morning all nice to see the gfs is saying we could be going back in to the deep freeze again !!

[Kent Snow]

A cool but virtually cloud free start to the day. 2C.

[masked_firefly]

Morning

Just to report this side of Ipswich for the last 30 mins or so we've had small flakes, snizzle and big flakes falling, nothing of any extreme and only settling really on car roofs

[Coast]

Morning all!

A beautiful yellow light filled the en-suite this morning and it looks wonderful out there right now! Absolutely no overnight wind of note, still got leaves on the path that haven't moved!!

[Ice Day]

Morning all, been off for a few days in Center Parcs with the family... Have I missed anything?

Go and have a look at this mornings ECM, looking rather interesting for our region; this was my favorite chart for 10th February. UKMO was good too but GFS was a bit cack!

Edited February 2, 2013 by Ice Day

[Coast]

So at this stage, anything wintry for next week seems to go on around us according to GFS (at this stage!!)

But just a little shift.....

[essex coast matt]

Modarate snow shower here 20p flakes not settling.

[Country Boy]

heavy snow shower for 10mins......nothing settled....its 2c. so only expecting wet ground from any showers

[Coast]

Nice to hear that Essex is getting something from almost nothing. Maybe we'll all get a shot at it soon?

Edited February 2, 2013 by Coast

[Tom Jarvis]

Send them snow showers my way lol

[Tom Montalbano]

Nice to hear that Essex is getting something from almost nothing. Maybe we'll all get a shot at it soon?

Looks like E.Kent could catch something as the morning goes on.

Regards,

Tom