South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 03/02/13 12z ------->

[gottolovethisweather]

Here's a question for AWD and the more knowledgeable on here.

On Wednesday we have a northerly direct from the Arctic, it's early February and yet our temps for here are progged to be 6c.

That's not that cold for this time of the year with a direct northerly - anyone know why?

Must be something to do with the Uppers, I guess they won't have had much time to become modified from the Westerly airflow of the previous day, i.e. tomorrow.

Other than that, I ain't too sure but sounds plausible to me.

Edited February 4, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[legritter]

im off to bed ,i expect to be woken up during the night looking at current radar and sattelite . our room faces west ,lets hope we all get lucky in a very rapidly developing situation ,wind now growling down chimney ,iv noticed a rapid fall of temp across ireland and north wales n/west england .

[Erbyskerby]

Very windy here now - quite an interesting line of potent showers forming off the coast of Wales - should get quite squally later on tonight.

[Storm Animal]

Snowing, thundering, lightening in NW England, hope it comes your way.......

[bellanite]

Hope we get to see something here so fingers crossed. Temps have remained steady all evening at or around 7c but have dropped by 1c in the last 10min. Now 5.8c still high DP of 2c

Good luck everyone will just be nice to see snow falling again

[AWD]

Here's a question for AWD and the more knowledgeable on here.

On Wednesday we have a northerly direct from the Arctic, it's early February and yet our temps for here are progged to be 6c.

That's not that cold for this time of the year with a direct northerly - anyone know why?

There's a mix out of surface cold on Wednesday due to a "warm sector" associated with this occlusion that passes through;

You can also see how the 850hpa temps get moderated on Wednesday in our area too;

Once this passes through, the colder airflow will mix back down to surface level and bring us colder 2m temperatures into the weekend, although nothing majorily cold at this stage.

Its the same occlusion that raises WBFL later tomorrow afternoon/evening too.

Edited February 4, 2013 by AWD

[cornish snow]

Here's a question for AWD and the more knowledgeable on here.

On Wednesday we have a northerly direct from the Arctic, it's early February and yet our temps for here are progged to be 6c.

That's not that cold for this time of the year with a direct northerly - anyone know why?

That is the exact same question thats been bugging me.

If you look at the SLP chart, it screams potential to me.

This is'nt late april is it?

[AWD]

Pub runs teasing us tonight;

[fergieweather]

The precipitation type is an estimate based on GFS at the time, not the most accurate.

Correct. It's v basic and drIven by GFS prog. Not based on actual observations...use with caution.

[Nights King]

Correct. It's v basic and drIven by GFS prog. Not based on actual observations...use with caution.

I don't think it takes elevation into equation very well either as I have often seen gfs call it as rain only to have snow in situations like tuesday.

temperature is creeping lower now at 5.0c dew point of just 1c now

Edited February 4, 2013 by mullender83

[cerneman]

Sad to Hear Reg Presley of The Troggs, Died today at his home in Andover,,,,,,,Love is all around You,

[slinky1989]

Heavy rain here in swindon now.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Correct. It's v basic and drIven by GFS prog. Not based on actual observations...use with caution.

Is a warning going to be issued regarding the information earlier on 2-5cm of snow possible? cheers.

[somersetsnow]

6.5 deg here in Evercreech.Don't think we will wake up to Snow................but would be nice!

[khodds]

My god it's squally out there tonight! Winds picked up out of nowhere in a shower! Mad!

[flyer]

Sad to Hear Reg Presley of The Troggs, Died today at his home in Andover,,,,,,,Love is all around You,

Cripps I didn't know that. He used to be my neighbour when I lived at Weyhill Road . He was in his in between phase,t hat is running low on cash before Wet Wet Wet took up one of his songs.

Tip my hat to him.

[somersetsnow]

My god it's squally out there tonight! Winds picked up out of nowhere in a shower! Mad!

We are now getting your mad shower!! lol

[fergieweather]

6.5 deg here in Evercreech.Don't think we will wake up to Snow................but would be nice!

Colder air not yet there. Post-midnight it'll change rapidly. Convective banding offering 2-5cm local accumulations above 200m. Hit or miss. Leading edge of occlusion remnant around noon tomorrow also looks... interesting. Even to lower levels, albeit temporary before WBFL rises later again.

[Blackjack10]

If you want to experience a stiff breeze, come up to the North Devon coast... I'm right on the beach, and would definitely not want to be out at sea tonight!

[somersetsnow]

Colder air not yet there. Post-midnight it'll change rapidly. Convective banding offering 2-5cm local accumulations above 200m. Hit or miss. Leading edge of occlusion remnant around noon tomorrow also looks... interesting. Even to lower levels, albeit temporary before WBFL rises later again.

Thank you,missed the weather tonight! Chucking it down at the mo! and VERY windy.

[Nights King]

Dear lord the wind came from no where!! Must be gale force out side!

Heavy rain now with a touch of sleet within it against window I think.

Temperature is falling within shower fast too. 3c

Edited February 4, 2013 by mullender83

[Costa Del Fal]

Did have some very strong gusts about 30 mins ago. Calm now but still awaiting the first showers.

[somersetsnow]

Now we have Sleet.

[jethro]

Currently it's pouring with rain with lightening and incredibly strong winds. Shame it's too warm for snow, the drifting would be immense!

[Mark Neal.]

Wind really picked up here now. Gusting 35mph. Temperature now 5.2c.Was 8c at 9pm