The Midlands Regional Discussion 05/02/13 08z ------->

[Chess01]

Think it's down to the event now not the models . Anyone remember 13 th jan this year when a band of precipitation suddenly popped up on the radar and stalled . It give me about 6 hours of light snow before the main snow came . Anything can happen

[Bolton67]

According to GFS and NAE somewhat diminished.

Intensity is decreased, and precip does it's very normal trick of getting to west midlands and stopping and not really getting to east midlands. It's also going to be rain until about 8pm.

not getting into the East Midlands?? Can I ask you to view the 06z NAE.

[kmanmx]

not getting into the East Midlands?? Can I ask you to view the 06z NAE.

It does get there, it's more the fact that intensity drops off exponentially as it heads east. But of course it would, that's just how it works, I get that. To be fair you are correct in that the NAE does have it over east midlands more than I originally remembered when looking at it. What i'm on about is more pronounced on the GFS and NMM, especially the NMM, that perfectly shows how much less intense the precip that reaches E Midlands is.

Edited February 9, 2013 by kmanmx

[Bolton67]

MetO updates. All the midlands in the warnings.

[Ian Brown]

A downgrading of the warnings in terms of snow potential and I think what we are looking at is a large mass of fairly weak PPN with a rain/sleet/snow mix.

[kmanmx]

MetO updates. All the midlands in the warnings.

Interesting how they say levels will be highly variable across the region. I'd like to know why they think that. I've not seen them say that before.

[Eugene]

We are honoured to have you visit our midlands discussion thread ian, we hope to see more of you in here

[shaky]

Interesting how they say levels will be highly variable across the region. I'd like to know why they think that. I've not seen them say that before.

Maybe because the band will be patchy in some parts and another part could have slightly heavier precipitation!!otherwise god knows!!i guess 4cms is better than nothing and like it says on the warning 10cms is not completelt out of question!!

[Ian Brown]

Interesting how they say levels will be highly variable across the region. I'd like to know why they think that. I've not seen them say that before.

Because it is highly marginal, in some areas it will be rain whereas not far up the road it will be snow, with the wet ground I would think that most areas will only see car and grass settling, I think it is going to be a bit of mess.

[Bolton67]

Interesting how they say levels will be highly variable across the region. I'd like to know why they think that. I've not seen them say that before.

. Nowcasting will be in order. I do have a little sinking feeling that it won't be much of a event. 2-5 cm pffffff.

[mackerel sky]

Sleet has turned to snow here, just as I was expecting it to die a death!

[kmanmx]

. Nowcasting will be in order. I do have a little sinking feeling that it won't be much of a event. 2-5 cm pffffff.

Well, atleast nowcasting is fun. Something to do for the day.

Because it is highly marginal, in some areas it will be rain whereas not far up the road it will be snow, with the wet ground I would think that most areas will only see car and grass settling, I think it is going to be a bit of mess.

Ah, I see. Good point. At least any flakes we see are likely to be big I guess, as is normal with marginal snow falls.

Edited February 9, 2013 by kmanmx

[Ian Brown]

The thing is though Kman, how heavy will the PPN be ? If you look at the 'breakdown' event of a couple of weeks ago, some areas got snow because the PPN was intense when all factors were maginal. f you have the same marginality again and temps in the 1 to 2 range and the PPN is lighter, then rain or sleet is more likely.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The thing is though Kman, how heavy will the PPN be ? If you look at the 'breakdown' event of a couple of weeks ago, some areas got snow because the PPN was intense when all factors were maginal. f you have the same marginality again and temps in the 1 to 2 range and the PPN is lighter, then rain or sleet is more likely.

Completely agree Ian. Looks a drizzly, wet and cold mess to me. It's not going to be a pleasant day.

[kmanmx]

The thing is though Kman, how heavy will the PPN be ? If you look at the 'breakdown' event of a couple of weeks ago, some areas got snow because the PPN was intense when all factors were maginal. f you have the same marginality again and temps in the 1 to 2 range and the PPN is lighter, then rain or sleet is more likely.

True I guess.

Forgive me for I'm not very clued up, but I thought the low didn't even develop until Sunday so the true strength, intensity and track wouldn't be properly known until that time ?

[Ian Brown]

True I guess.

Forgive me for I'm not very clued up, but I thought the low didn't even develop until Sunday so the true strength, intensity and track wouldn't be properly known until that time ?

That is true, although the data that METO have must suggest to them that it is going to be less of a feature than first progged, although I imagine it will be slow moving and once it's arrived then it is around until early Monday, as the system wraps around.

[kmanmx]

That is true, although the data that METO have must suggest to them that it is going to be less of a feature than first progged, although I imagine it will be slow moving and once it's arrived then it is around until early Monday, as the system wraps around.

I see. However, I won't write it off until the last run before it arrives. Even with my only 3 or so years of coming on this forum and looking at models, I've snow events turn out to be different to how they were forecast on quite a few occasions. Albeit usually for the worse (rain, not snow).

[snowangel32]

So basically no one knows what is going to happen so its a look at the lampost day and hope it turns to snow, strangely though the met have me down for heavy snow when it was sleet and light snow so wonder what made them upgrade it in the last few hours bbc have also done the same. So there is still hope.

[shaky]

Anyone know where i can get the ecmwf precipitation charts from!!just want to know how far north and east it takes the precipitation!!

[Stour7]

This courtesy of John Holmes From the model thread

http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_id=159962

Very useful explanation of what's going on

[kmanmx]

I think Ian is right about it being a large, weak band.

MetO has removed heavy snow for my area, it's all light snow now.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Think it's down to the event now not the models . Anyone remember 13 th jan this year when a band of precipitation suddenly popped up on the radar and stalled . It give me about 6 hours of light snow before the main snow came . Anything can happen

dont think it was 13th? was thurs 17th, before the snow on 18th

13th was snowy evening mind you

[Staffordshire]

12z's will be very interesting, notice how this event has got weaker and weaker nearer the time, expect that to happen with wednesdays event, im not confident about anything more than 3cm tommorow

[kmanmx]

12z's will be very interesting, notice how this event has got weaker and weaker nearer the time, expect that to happen with wednesdays event, im not confident about anything more than 3cm tommorow

It'll be an upgrade of biblical proportions, atleast I hope

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12z's will be very interesting, notice how this event has got weaker and weaker nearer the time, expect that to happen with wednesdays event, im not confident about anything more than 3cm tommorow

3cms tomorrow, absolutely no chance, on my angle though todays models etc are an upgrade, it now looks like a dryish day tomorrow, especially bbc

there was never a snow risk here, just a washout threat, but now tomorrow looks no washout