Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/02/13 onwards.

[Mair Snaw]

No we better not!

Hopefully it's a new trend for pressure to rise again around Scandinavia....

You can just see the headline on front page ' uk to plunge into mini ice age'

[Froze were the Days]

Didn't someone say on the last thread that the 18z verifies better in the shorter then that the 12z. Which would mean this could happen as the minor details are now appearing in the shorter time frame??

Nope that was within 72 hour time frame I believe, and 0z's from both ECM and GFS better in the medium range 120-168 - I think.

[SE Blizzards]

New NAVGEM model fantastic @ 144h

Edited February 15, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[Snowman.]

Absolutely!

I know it`s has the tag of the Pub run but it isn`t far away from the pattern depicted by the 500hPa ens hts over the last few runs.

The high is trending further west with time -as suggested in those forecasts.

Maybe the 850`s will be less cold come the time but even allowing for some modification of those the pattern as shown would be as good as we could hope.

Just to add whilst not a bad run for cold i was a little surprised at the way the ECM run sunk the High SE somewhat in it`s later frames which was against the trend of those forecasts-which are still similar this evening btw.

Yes but that doesn't show shortwaves. What we have seen is a shortwave spawn North of Italy which has made the easterly linger for more and causing more snow.

We need to see if the 0z has this otherwise the ECM route is likely and if its ensembles support it.

[SMU]

The GFS Mean up to 108 has adjusted to show the presence of the iberian energy pushing up-

As a result the easterly will be flatter in the mean rather than SE like the 12z MEAN.

S

[Jason M]

Actually many years of reading this forum with people going on about it showing dry when in fact we end up with inches of the white stuff on the floor just a few days later. The 18z proves that trying to work out precipitation this far out is pointless. It's anything but dry on that run!!

I wasn't banging on about it either, I mentioned it once unlike the people talking about it being "dry".

My last comment on this to avoid clogging the thread....

This is a model discussion thread and if people think it will be dry, why should they not comment? If you don't like what some people post, press the ignore button. Alternatively, constructively disagree. People should not get flamed for their views!

I've not seen anyone say the GFS is a dry run. Probably because it isn't, but ECM is a dry run for most and that's just the way it is, unless of course you can illustrate differently.

Jason

[The Eagle]

Ensembles look pretty comfortable with the op run. Mean 850 temps will be a good bit lower than the 12z.

[LomondSnowstorm]

The GFS Mean up to 108 has adjusted to show the presence of the iberian energy pushing up-

As a result the easterly will be flatter in the mean rather than SE like the 12z MEAN.

S

All bar two of the ensemble suite have -8C over some part of the British Isles by +132. Doesn't mean to say it's right of course but the spread is impressively tight for that range, particularly in the southeast:

[damianslaw]

Firm agreement an easterly is on the cards. As others state though it will be a case of watching how the high to the NE orientates itself and how it interacts with the atlantic trough to our SW - there is a very strong likelihood of an undercut situation later next week which would enable very cold uppers to move in from the east.

ECM is suggesting less of an undercut and hence we end up with southeasterlies and less cold uppers, but given we will be under a very dry continental feed, maxima will be very low and dewpoints.

The timing of the change to an easterly is very reminscent of Feb 2005 the last time we saw a decent easterly in the second half of Feb, on that occasion the high ridged far into the mid atlantic and retrogressed NW to some degree, though thanks to less conducive uppers many places saw a sleety snowy mix, rather than sustained snowfalls.

I'll be keeping an eye on the polar vortex - signs of the canadian lobe finally retreating towards siberia, if we manage to see a major scandi trough develop then retrogression shoud ensue provided the atlantic trough plays ball.

Its a superb outlook if you like cold weather.

[Mucka]

Always the same on these forums with people unable to understand the difference between an analysis of given charts and a forecast.

ECM would be essentially dry, especially for NW England. If you are in the NW and think ECM would deliver you can't read charts, simple as that.

Now if people forecast it to be dry for the 5 to 10 day period - that would be worthy of some the asinine posts I have read banging on about people saying it will be dry.

The reverse would be saying people are stupid for forecasting heavy convective snow in the SE now when they are describing one GFS run.

[SMU]

So whats the iberian energy??? Whats the shortwave bringing us this saviour...??

GFS MEAN- flat as a pancake perfect- nearly all down to this:

& lets break out the .....

S

[phil nw.]

Yes but that doesn't show shortwaves. What we have seen is a shortwave spawn North of Italy which has made the easterly linger for more and causing more snow.

We need to see if the 0z has this otherwise the ECM route is likely and if its ensembles support it.

Yes if you mean the s/w that dropped down from Norway and south into Poland and Germany in the earlier frames-that`s one ofthe key differences with the ECM.

GFS moves that pool of low hts westwards later on whereas the ECM sinks and fills it as that Scandi High drops se.

Edited February 15, 2013 by phil nw.

[Mucka]

Not sure if these have been posted. ECM London ensembles.

[phil nw.]

So whats the iberian energy??? Whats the shortwave bringing us this saviour...??

GFS MEAN- flat as a pancake perfect- nearly all down to this:

& lets break out the .....

S

Yes Steve-the old Genoa low as Nick S christened it many moons ago.

A nice peice of the Easterly jigsaw.

[Guest bjaykent]

What a great end to the day, you won’t see a much better pub run than that, would be nice if ECM/UKMO could move in its direction for a change. I am reminded tonight of the famous quote from Robert M. Pirsig - "When one person suffers from a delusion, it is called insanity. When many people suffer from a delusion it is called a Religion."

Well I think regardless of what we want to look for on here be it cold or mild, we are all definitely members of the Weather Church – A desire to believe in the intangible. Let’s hope we are rewarded by a visit of the god of all weather in this country the BEASTERLY.

I’ll pray to the weather gods to get this chart to verify. Amen!

[Tamara]

Not sure if these have been posted. ECM London ensembles.

Scatter as you might expect after day 7 which might well represent overly premature progression to an eventual western based NAO, but aside from the 'noise' the tighter cluster with some pretty cold solutions look to me to be advancing the trend

[Mucka]

Around 40% of GFS ensembles have good retrogression of the high within the Hi Res part of the run so still in the balance in that respect.

This is the sort of thing I hope to see on ECM tomorrow

[Mucka]

Scatter as you might expect after day 7 which might well represent overly premature progression to an eventual western based NAO, but aside from the 'noise' the tighter cluster with some pretty cold solutions look to me to be advancing the trend

Yeah, it is very rare for ensembles that far out showing a strong cold anomaly to keep it longer than 5 to 6 days before showing a warm up. We usually see the cold getting stretched out day by day once it is upon us.

Edited February 15, 2013 by Mucka

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Retrogression of that high means we could be in for a reloaded 'North-BEASTERLY' with the 'black hole' coming down into scandi with ferociously cold temps potentially being drawn in. This winter really could go out with a massive bang!

Will be incredibly happy if this does materialise

[WINTRY WALES]

Well what a run!!! Anf you can guarantee what the cry will be from Joe public if this verifies.....we always get the weather what the US recieves two weeks on!?! Perhaps some truth after all

[Snow Run]

Got to catch a flight next Saturday. This is the one time I actually want boring weather.....just watch nature slap me in the face and give piles of snow!

Likewise - I've got 3000 people coming to town for a half marathon on Sun 24th!

[Zakos]

The GEFS mean at 192 hours has minus 44 million 850's approaching from the east...

On a more serious note... It is pleasing to see the GFS finally come on board with this cold spell, as each day passes the prospects for cold weather continue to increase, This is looking like it has potential to be a very severe cold spell, with fully blocked conditions unlike what we have seen so far this winter. No sign of any Atlantic influence on the UK anytime soon once the cold spell sets in.

Edited February 15, 2013 by Zakos

[Snowman.]

Yes if you mean the s/w that dropped down from Norway and south into Poland and Germany in the earlier frames-that`s one ofthe key differences with the ECM.

GFS moves that pool of low hts westwards later on whereas the ECM sinks and fills it as that Scandi High drops se.

No talking about what steve is on about.

Keeps it further north with the energy.

[Tom Jarvis]

Gfs short range ensemble http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=316&y=149&run=18&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

Wow

Edited February 15, 2013 by Tom Jarvis

[Timmytour]

Horsemeat in our food?

The resignation of a Pope?

The most famous Paralympic athlete ever up on a charge of murder?

Asteroids missing the earth by a whisper while a falling meteor injures 100s of people?

I worried the world was going mad..but convinced myself, these were just one-off freak events.

Then I came on here and saw Steve Murr waxing lyrically about a GFS run