Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/02/13 onwards.

[PB22]

Exactly, the same 2 or 3 posters banging the "it's going to be dry" drum all evening when I've lost count of the number of times I've read the same thing on here over the years and then I've sat watching 6 inches of snow fall outside my window just a few days later. It seems that some just never learn, or aren't willing to learn.

Things pop up out of anywhere in cold easterly flows.

Spot on, I fail to see why so many put themselves through the stress. It's always been the case, get the cold air in then the rest will take care of itself. For what its worth, I think tonight's output is absolutely superb for those wanting cold weather. As for the snow lovers, well it also looks extremely promising because no cold air = no snow, so getting the cold is the first priority. Look at the cold spell just gone, how many snow events popped up at short notice? I rest my case. There's far too much emphasis on upper temperatures.

The 18Z GFS is now coming out, and up to T+90 there's very little change in the overall pattern:

[Geordiesnow]

I think the output is a decent one personally, mainly because for the next 4 or so days, any rainfall looks very minimal so some further drying out can take place.

Too me in general, the outlook looks a fairly dry one too me with high pressure always near by, won't take too much for a snowy set up to come along but at this moment in time, the odds are that the outlook will remain quite quiet and benign. Sunshine amounts could also decrease into next week as we pick up a chilly easterly flow although as I said, won't take too much to change that into a bright convective set up.

[shotski]

Those are height anomalies not pressure. Even a signal for increased Greenland heights does not mean a greenland high as normal heights for Greenland can be 995mb pressure with above heights being just 1000mb. Above heights for Greenland are not unusual during Feb. We need a much stronger Greenland anomaly for a GH

And your point is ? Where in my post did I mention the word pressure ?

Is this a strong enough height anomaly for you ?

Edited February 15, 2013 by shotski

[Ice Day]

Very very nice.......and only 108 hours away! Edit: Forgot to add that of course it's the pub run so won't verify!

Edited February 15, 2013 by Ice Day

[Jason M]

Exactly, the same 2 or 3 posters banging the "it's going to be dry" drum all evening when I've lost count of the number of times I've read the same thing on here over the years and then I've sat watching 6 inches of snow fall outside my window just a few days later. It seems that some just never learn, or aren't willing to learn.

Things pop up out of anywhere in cold easterly flows.

Probably the only thing worse is the posters that feel the need to bang on about those that are supposedly banging on about it being dry. For the benefit of those willing to learn, your evidence to debunk this supposed myth is?

[SMU]

GFS better through 96-

the 544 Line ( pale blue on Meteociel ) in a similar location, however core of the low slightly NW & deeper.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013021518/gfs-0-96.png?18

S

[The Eagle]

This should be a good run.

[SMU]

Shortwave NON spoiler alert

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013021518/gfs-0-114.png?18

1010 Low over North Italy.- will support the flow staying Easterly.

S

[Jason M]

Very very nice.......and only 108 hours away! Edit: Forgot to add that of course it's the pub run so won't verify!

Good upper cold pool there. Dare I say it, but convection maybe?

Long live the mighty GFS :-)

Jason

[manutdmatt1986]

I'm liking this run very much. A much better angle of attack from the East, cold spreading West quickly and snow showers packing into Eastern areas.

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013021518/gfs-0-126.png?18

At 126- all 4 key indicators are perfect.- watch that upper cold pool slide west.

[Ice Day]

132 - Sweet Baby Jesus!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited February 15, 2013 by Ice Day

[Jason M]

A bit more convection on this run.....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=138&code=0&mode=2

Liking this run!

Also liking Steves new avatar...very good :-)

Jason

Edited February 15, 2013 by Jason M

[Stu_London]

http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-126.png?18

At 126- all 4 key indicators are perfect.- watch that upper cold pool slide west.

It does look a better run than it's predecessor - however at +126 we are just hoping the whole thing doesn't fall apart. We we get below +72 - then the specifics come into play.

[snowking]

Good upper cold pool there. Dare I say it, but convection maybe?

Long live the mighty GFS :-)

Jason

Something is going to have to give soon isn't it!

Fascinating watching. Given the fact the ECMWF has been first to the post in recent weeks you would have to favour its modelling of our upper temps, you can also add the ensemble mean consensus being rather more similar to the ECMWF than the deep cold suggestion of the GFS, though equally I guess you could look at these in isolation:

And suggest that, actually, the GFS has some decent support for a 24-36 hour window at least.

There's going to be a lot of ups and downs in the next few days. We better get in an order of some new prams and a few thousand toys

SK

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013021518/gfs-0-144.png?18

other than lowering the heights another 8 dam or so - that is as good a chart you can ever get for the bulk of england.

& theres more to come right out to 168 on this run.

S

[john pike]

tuesdays fax

wednesdays fax

[Ice Day]

Absolutely superb at 144. Minus 10 uppers across most of England by now....and still heading west!

[Stu_London]

worth remembering once again the metociel's colour scheme can make things look a little more dramatic than they really are as well as the way they represent the earth curvature.

[Tamara]

There is as good a representation from the EPS members as one might expect a week away. Taking the average representation into the round, then I think good evidence that the High will hold its Scandinavian position at a favourable enough latitide to allow the undercut for next weekend to pull the colder uppers and snowfall potential further west. Could be Feb 1978 once again?

Thereafter, with that holding pattern, we may get to a position where the High retrogresses further and the cold lifts out from the SW, but realistically as far ahead as that may (or may not be) then we *should* be happy - assuming the caveat that the initial westward thrust of the upper cold pool from the trigger feature to the NE is on course for the UK and not too far south into mainland Europe

Edited February 15, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Ian Brown]

If only it were as straightforward as the 18z shows

[Ice Day]

No more words!

[-uksnow-]

'That' GFS pub run...

[snowking]

Given the likely focus on 850mb temps for the next few days, thought it might be useful to do a quick run through of the 850mb temp verification for the northern hemisphere:

Day 3 -

ECMWF, then GFS (worth noting the GEM is rather poor here)

Day 5 -

Similar story, ECMWF then GFS

Day 6 -

Same at day 6. Also worth noting that the JMA is performing better over the 30 day running mean than the GEM

Of course i'm sure we all (with the likely notable exception of rob - nice to see you back mate!) hope the GFS steps up to the mark here and throws off its number 2 reputation

SK

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013021518/gfs-0-168.png?18

heavy snow showers everywhere-

Heavy prolonged snow over devon & cornwall.

S

they dont call it the pub run for nothing!