Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/02/13 onwards.

[Jason M]

I think the optimism varies depending on where you live. Great for the SE especially kent and possibly south of the m4. There's no getting away from te fact the ensembles are overwhelmingly in favor of spring to arrive on que I welcome in March

Not sure about that. You won't want to be out in your mankini if ECM verifies :-)

[stratty]

I think the optimism varies depending on where you live. Great for the SE especially kent and possibly south of the m4. There's no getting away from te fact the ensembles are overwhelmingly in favor of spring to arrive on que I welcome in March

Que?!? Both to this word and your statement! Spring will arrive in March as always, whether it will feel springlike, who knows yet.....tooooooooo far awayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy.......

Edited February 15, 2013 by stratty

[bradymk]

I think the optimism varies depending on where you live. Great for the SE especially kent and possibly south of the m4. There's no getting away from te fact the ensembles are overwhelmingly in favor of spring to arrive on que I welcome in March

I think this is one of the reason behind some of the posts. I am not very fond of IMBY posts because its very hard to get a synoptic pattern that satisfies the whole of the UK. And after saying that, now here I am about to make an IMBY post because the charts look good for my area and also S Ireland and here on the west coast of Wales, along with Ireland, we have had a very poor winter so far, been right on the edge of the cold each time and no v cold temperatures or snowfall which is expected here anyway but will be nice to see some in the next few weeks. After a poor winter here, the next few weeks could deliver a big snow event, even for my area, which is rare. If not, i will move It has to be reinforced though that do not worry about the uppers on EC 12z, they are perfectly fine with the flow being shown. Also if you want to make an IMBY post, do it at 24 hours maximum not 192. Edited February 15, 2013 by bradythemole

[Ian Brown]

I think the optimism varies depending on where you live. Great for the SE especially kent and possibly south of the m4. There's no getting away from te fact the ensembles are overwhelmingly in favor of spring to arrive on que I welcome in March

You can't possibly determine the orientation and the location of the High and the core of heights at T120 in an easterly, probably not at T96 and probably with reasonable confidence at T72, so I wouldn't rule anything out in terms of snow chances.

The METO long term outlook remains below average to the middle of March, FWIW.

[gareth73]

Interesting to see the BBC is warning of complacency over the next few days. Telling everyone the cold is on it's way back

[Frosty.]

This reinforces my point ;-) When Ian B says this, you know the models are looking great!

Only great eventually for the south/sw/se, benign and settled for the north unless the high is nudged north in the coming days, a non event for scotland and n.ireland & n.england but with overnight frosts.

[Joe Levy]

Some people are posting as if the ECM 12z is an exact forecast and will definitely happen. In my opinion, and for my location, it is potentially brilliant for cold and snow, but either way, it is too far away to be certain of anything! At this stage we can at least look forward to some drier colder weather, with a significant risk of more than that. Besides, we need some dry weather down here so as long as high pressure is somewhere nearby, I am happy!

[ChartViewer]

Def seem to be moving to a West based negative NAO .

[mcweather]

I have to chuckle when people get disappointed by an ECM run like tonights. It seems some won't be happy unless we have something like January 1987.

According to Phillip Eden the coldest part of that amazing time was probabaly the coldest week in southern england since 1740.

So if you keep wanting something that only seems to happen once every 247 years then you may end up being disappointed for a very long time.

[Frosty.]

Interesting to see the BBC is warning of complacency over the next few days. Telling everyone the cold is on it's way back

yes, the northern half of the uk need to prepare for overnight frosts and pleasant sunny days next week according to the ecm & ukmo 12z, we have been warned.

[Blizzardof82]

http://www.meteociel...M1-240.GIF?15-0

ECM ends mouthwatering for the SW & Southern Ireland- If anyone thinks it wont be snow then look at how the 850 drop in decending air in 24 hours - down to -8c.

If you want further clarification look up Jan 1982.- 50cms of snow over Ians corner-

^^ thats a SW blizzard waiting to happen

S

Hence my username

[cooling climate]

Not very impressed tonight by the ECM run and just taking this run as it is at face value

it would not be anywhere near as cold as some would believe.

Daytime max of 3c or 4c roughly speaking does not a cold spell make. Of course plenty of

time for changes and other models including the GFS are progging something colder

and I think the ECM will also in future runs.

[snowking]

Def seem to be moving to a West based negative NAO .

Eventually yes, that has certainly been the suggestion from the ensemble mean heights for some days now....but before we get to that, we have an east based one to deal with first

SK

[weather eater]

Not much in the way of complaints from me re the models this evening, as I keep saying model synoptic projections do not stand still, thus uppers and who gets snow etc can be a pretty meaningless discussion, although I would say in terms of uppers we do have a watering down trend on the ECM at the moment, plenty of time for that to change though.

Cold and dry will do me at the moment and if it’s only the south and east that get snow well good for them I won’t begrudge them. The one thing that is noticeable and I would call a downgrade is that the models seem to have backed of from the idea of a Greenland high yet again.

I have to chuckle when people get disappointed by an ECM run like tonights. It seems some won't be happy unless we have something like January 1987.

According to Phillip Eden the coldest part of that amazing time was probabaly the coldest week in southern england since 1740.

So if you keep wanting something that only seems to happen once every 247 years then you may end up being disappointed for a very long time.

Well in truth you can put me in that bag and I think many on here are the same, once you have seen severe cold and great big mounds of snow a bit cold and light or moderate falls just fail to light the blue touch paper, However most are fully aware that that’s unlikely to happen so we aren’t really disappointed when it doesn’t,

Edited February 15, 2013 by weather eater

[Captain Shortwave]

Synoptically this run is a lot better than the last two ecm runs, though it does looks like the run gets a bit gagged towards the end,

Just a question as this bothers me, by t120 we have -8 uppers in situ just to our east with the wind generally coming in from the east, yet from there the colder uppers seem to retreat eastwards despite a flow from the east. Is this really normal or are the uppers being mixed out that quickly?

[johnny1972]

Seriously some stupid comments made in the last 10 mins.

Uppers will not be sorted right up until the event itself.

Its the general pattern you want to be watching and that is nothing short of fantastic.

Get a grip !

The problem this year particularly for western areas is the uppers haven't been cold enough. I live on east coast of NI and have hardly seen a flake this year. When the HP has set up to the north allowing a NE, E or SE flow the continent hasn't been as cold this year therefore hasnt had the feed of very cold uppers of previous years. The high has extended further east across scandinavia and russia this year so NOT allowing the very cold air to penetrate europe from the siberia / artic region. The higher uppers are then modified further over the warmer seas, even though by now SST's will be approaching their lowest values. This has made the difference between frost and no frost, sleet / rain instead of snow. I know the mainland has done well but this is by no means remotely close to 2010.

Regards

Johnny

Ps see the ECM 192 12z 850 chart as an example. The coldest air locked well to the north and at the most -8 to -12 uppers in Europe. Memorable east or north easterlies have 850 uppers of -20 and below into Europe so by the time it reaches our shores we have widely -10 and sometimes -15 uppers.

Edited February 15, 2013 by johnny1972

[ChartViewer]

Eventually yes, that has certainly been the suggestion from the ensemble mean heights for some days now....but before we get to that, we have an east based one to deal with first

SK

True but longevity of any cold spell comes into question once this shows its hand ..I want an East based NAO and a cold spell well into March..

Edited February 15, 2013 by ChartViewer

[Frosty.]

One thing that will happen next week if the synoptics remain broadly similar to the way the ecm & ukmo 12z currently show, all the members on here in the northern half of the uk will wonder what all the fuss is about, it looks a nice pleasant week with light winds, pleasant sunshine and overnight frosts, very much a north/south divide.

[J10]

Latest Ski Blog now out for week ahead.

[cooling climate]

I have to chuckle when people get disappointed by an ECM run like tonights. It seems some won't be happy unless we have something like January 1987.

According to Phillip Eden the coldest part of that amazing time was probabaly the coldest week in southern england since 1740.

So if you keep wanting something that only seems to happen once every 247 years then you may end up being disappointed for a very long time.

I do not think anyone is expecting another Jan 87 and the synoptics now would have to be even more exceptional

than then to deliver that sort of cold. Uppers of -14c even -15c are still very possible the second half of February

( although rare) which would bring max temps of just -2c even at this time of year.

[Summer Sun]

One thing that will happen next week if the synoptics remain broadly similar to the way the ecm & ukmo 12z currently show, all the members on here in the northern half of the uk will wonder what all the fuss is about, it looks a nice pleasant week with light winds, pleasant sunshine and overnight frosts, very much a north/south divide.

And for once we'll be in the right place for the sunshine lots of drying out is needed now for everyone but more importantly our farmers, dry and sunny by day and frosty nights will suite me fine, the south is welcome to the snow

Edited February 15, 2013 by Gavin.

[The Eagle]

Calling comments stupid for pointing out the 850 temp profile being inadequate on the ECM op run is wrong and says more about the poster who says it than the posters targeted.

Synoptically the ECM is superb with very cold surface air in a southeasterly. The 850 temps no matter what way you look at it are disappointing. But it's only one run and hopefully tomorrow we will see those uppers getting further west again increasing the likelihood of snow. GEM/NOGAPS and (awful) GFS are excellent from every point of view.

Still a lot to play for.

[LomondSnowstorm]

One thing that will happen next week if the synoptics remain broadly similar to the way the ecm & ukmo 12z currently show, all the members on here in the northern half of the uk will wonder what all the fuss is about, it looks a nice pleasant week with light winds, pleasant sunshine and overnight frosts, very much a north/south divide.

Broadly speaking yes, but I think we're still quite far off being able to call whether it will be mostly dry or not. Many times over the years people have written off a spell as being cold and dry - the pre Christmas period of 2009 for Scotland, numerous slack easterlies round my neck of the woods (even on the day of them the BBC forecast was for it to be dry) which delivered snow and even December 2010 which delivered so much for the south at points was thought to be dry because of the slack trough. If the cold is well established features can and often do pop up at short range, so that's what I'd focus on at this stage, and synoptically things still look promising for all in that regard.

[Panayiotis]

Yes ECM is massive upgrade IMO just seen the run and I say this because there is no shortwave to the SE of Greenland like the 00z and yesterdays 12z was showing. The shortwave stops the retrogression of the heights, therefore not having it is a bonus!

For example (and I know its Fi but for the ECM to ditch the idea is good) these are yesterdays 12z and todays 00z at 192hrs:

Now this is todays 12z:

Notice the difference if from today we see the above chart come closer that puts in a much better position if we want prolonged cold, nonetheless great medium term run!

Edited February 15, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Frosty.]

Things will only be any good for the north if there is an arctic outbreak sometime down the line, early march say.. it currently only looks like south of the M4 corridor will feel the bite from the Easterly and with wintry showers spreading into kent/essex etc, and then maybe some snow for the south/sw as atlantic lows push northeast and hit the block before retreating sw again, the gfs 12z has the high further north so the wintry showers would also feed in across ne and e coastal counties by the second half of next week but for the northern half of the uk at least, there is nothing to get excited about as things stand.