Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/02/13 onwards.

[Jason M]

Santander, lloyds, Barclays...... In one word BANK :-)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=162&code=0&mode=2

In fairness this run was strongly supported in the last GEFS suite as well.

Jason

Actually, can I bank the 168 instead?

Edited February 15, 2013 by Jason M

[Cheshire Freeze]

I see the pub run is back on form/off the wagon after a couple of months attending the AA meetings.

[shaky]

No more words!

Now that is one crazy run!!probably the best easterly ive seen since 2009!!

[bluearmy]

wont see a better run than this one for advecting the cold pool over uk in a more favourable position. alas, the chances of gfs 18z verifying ?

[Tim Bland]

Where is TEITS ? The 18z shows the easterly he's been waiting for all these years!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=168&code=0&mode=2

[Cheshire Freeze]

wont see a better run than this one for advecting the cold pool over uk in a more favourable position. alas, the chances of gfs 18z verifying ?

Given the state of the mighty ECM in terms of projected uppers.....Probably 5%

[snowking]

No more words!

Anyone would think its a friday night with this pub run.

Its a case of spot the difference here:

SK

[shaky]

wont see a better run than this one for advecting the cold pool over uk in a more favourable position. alas, the chances of gfs 18z verifying ?

In all fairness it will probably be gone by the morning unless ecmwf joins the party or even ukmo!!

[PB22]

Good old GFS, takes ages to latch on but then when it does it goes beserk!

T+174:

Significant snowfalls in places if that chart verified.

[Tamara]

Well the GFS 18z goes on to exemplify the best possible result from that holding pattern to the NE with perfect snergy to allow the cold pool west at the perfect time that the right weight of energy undercuts from the atlantic. For the second half of Feb it doesn't get much better!

Edited February 15, 2013 by Tamara Road

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013021518/gfs-0-180.png?18

if you live in England- more particular the SE, NE, E or South- even wales then I would bank this run & run to the hills-

Show potential on the 850-1000 thickness charts is ushered in at T96 with the 1290 line- & is still going strong some 100 hours later....

EPIC run.- one of the best since tez interwebz.

S

[The Eagle]

A hint of "too good to be true" about this run. Great eye candy though.

Edited February 15, 2013 by The Eagle

[Ice Day]

..and still going strong at 186. Only problem with this run; it looks a bit dry!!!!!!!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

For what its worth the GFS 18z run is a beauty with possible snow showers or more prolonged periods of snow for a lot of areas, especially eastern areas from late Tuesday early Wednesday onwards. With -10 uppers and very low dew points due to the continental feed things should be less marginal. All we need now is for this to continue on future runs. We dont ask for much do we?

[-uksnow-]

Spot the difference...

NONE

[bluearmy]

could get silly in low res if the arctic opens its doors to the north.

EDIT: nope and decent continuity re the west based -NAO and milder flow for nw europe as a consequence.

Edited February 15, 2013 by bluearmy

[goosey007]

'That' GFS pub run...

u

this is shaping up to be an epic cold spell....best consistency all winter from all the major models.......struggling to get my jaw off the floor!!!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Got to catch a flight next Saturday. This is the one time I actually want boring weather.....just watch nature slap me in the face and give piles of snow!

[The Eagle]

NOGAPS 120 18z

[TEITS]

I have a feeling of apathy posting about the models at the moment hence the lack of my posts. This isn't because the output is poor because the output is stunning. My apathy is because on the face of it all models are similar at +120/+144 but when it comes to the actual weather on the ground they are very different.

The exact placement and orientation of the HP won't be decided for another 48hrs just yet and this will impact the extent of the cold plus snowfall via convection. Now if the 18Z GFS is still showing the same output on Sunday then I shall be posting frequently with plenty of excitement.

[DAVID SNOW]

A hint of "too good to be true" about this run. Great eye candy though.

A bit like the ECM 4 days ago...... we are getting closer..

[The Eagle]

it looks a bit dry!!!!!!!

[bradymk]

Just to let some people know, it doesnt get much better than the pub run special we are currently viewing. Dont be too dissapointed when it downgrades on the 00z but its still a possible outcome and it shows how great the rewards could be if we get a good advection west of the upper cold pool.

Edited February 15, 2013 by bradythemole

[shaky]

NOGAPS 120 18z

Continues where it left of from the 12z

[Dunstable Snow]

Been out with the wife and had a great night with a few sherberts thrown in. The 18z is on a similar trip. Back to reality with a bumb tomorrow ? ...

Seriously This would be wonderful if it verified and actually deliver what much of this winter has promised. I said a while ago that i thought we would have a decent cold spell with retrogression and ultimately a death to the cold resulting from a West based -NAO and this looks more likely given the output over the last couple of days. A strong convective easterly followed by a slider low bringing copious amounts of snow would be a great way to go out. I do think it will be early to mid March before the cold gives up thje ghost over the core of the country.