Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/02/13 onwards.

[bluearmy]

cross model agreement on the lower thicknesses and lower uppers with a stiff flow towards the end of the week. The euro trough performing its magic.

There is only one man for the countryfile forecast tomorrow. Mr mcelwee must be brought back!!

after all, it is starting to look like 'proper winter' !

[Southern Storm]

I don't think I have ever seen everyone be so positive on this forum, and that tells me all I need to know.

And even though we getting on towards the end of winter, i think we can take heart in the fact that sea surface

Temperatures are cooling down nicely now, which will mean less modification over the north sea

Personally I will be waiting until Monday before I allow myself to get all excited

PS has the nogaps been overhauled yet? Its been performing a lot better recently!

[cooling climate]

As already been said excellent runs this morning and as I mentioned last night the ECM

already showing a much colder easterly upper temp wise.

I am still confident that in the next 2 weeks or so we could see the coldest weather of the

winter.

[SMU]

For the ECM query it goes easterly all the way to 240 with no sign of a breakdown

S

[TEITS]

Well im glad my cat woke me up early again as the models this morning are just superb. The real highlight is the UKMO although im not surprised because like I said last night it seemed out of kilter with the rest of the output.

So at the moment and I emphasize at the moment the outlook consists of this.

Arrival of E,ly with convective potential is around Wednesday. The exact timing will change but at the moment light snow showers are expected but could also develop inland due to the strength of the sun as the GFS has been highlighting. Note how the shower activity retreats towards the coast after dusk.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1081.png

As we progress through the week the shower activity is expected to increase especially towards the weekend as we see LP going underneath the block increasing the E,ly flow resulting in greater inland penetration.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif

The E,ly flow could veer towards a NE or ENE,ly during Sunday as highlighted by the ECM. This has been a trend on many runs including the GFS.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif

Edited February 16, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[mountain shadow]

For the ECM query it goes easterly all the way to 240 with no sign of a breakdown

S

And retrogession towards Greenland at the end.

The uppers on the ECM arent that high though?. Im assuming the contintenal air is the main player though.

Any news on this morning ecm guys.......Surprise to see no comments on it at this crucial stage.......??

Why not have a look and tell us what you think? No one will shoot you down.

[bluearmy]

if the 12z ukmo has good continuity, expect tonights day 5 fax to have some troughs evident in the flow. Looking at the squeeze on the flow, ukmo offers a noreaster surface whilst ecm an easterly. Those downwind of the wash and thames estuary can perhaps look forward to a 'streamer' kicking in ??

Incidentally the day 6 ukmo chart has thicknesses mid teens !

[winterof79]

No doubt someone will find fault today but they will have to look long and hard

Easterly kicking in Tuesday night

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn908.png and persisting throughout the week and veering n/e

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1688.png Snow for the usual areas as streamers set in off the North sea.

What happens next is up for grabs as the week unfolds.Enjoy folks

Edited February 16, 2013 by winterof79

[Bolton67]

Those downwind of the wash

my ears pick up when the words "" wash Streamer"" come into play. The strength of the wind will be a factor, the stronger the flow then we in Northants will do well. If the flow is slack the showers will die a death over TEITS house lol. Edited February 16, 2013 by lancs_northants

[IDO]

Its great to see cross model agreement at D7 with the three big models. It seems a long time since that happened, and also for an easterly:

ECM @D7: GFS: UKMO:

Looks like at least a seven day cold spell with potential from there. The control and op appear to be outliers in FI on the GFS 0z run (compared to the mean):

[goosey007]

And retrogession towards Greenland at the end.

The uppers on the ECM arent that high though?. Im asusuming uthue contintenal air is the main player though.

Why not have a look and tell us what you think? No one will shoot you down.

Yeah your right im being lazy ....though it a real pain while on your phone....but i do find it difficult to read the charts in Any great detail ....i just look for those heights to the NE or NW and barrelling Channel lows.......LOL

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Oh ok go on then ! As everybody has said already brilliant overnight runs , the cold really setting in next week by wed , a slight difference on timing by ECM which is a tad slower to bring the coldest uppers in but it really doesn't matter.

The UKMO looks very good, especially the last frame with these low thickness values in the south , still not sure how far north the snow from that trough would get in the English Channel ?

The gfs Is consistently showing a breakdown on the 27th , may be just reverting back to default although its showing a marked rise in the ens around that time, but all very fi though and we what may be A snowy easterly to kick in first , which given the the time of year with the sun can create some very heavy cells inland during day light .

[Frosty.]

There is only one man for the countryfile forecast tomorrow. Mr mcelwee must be brought back!!after all, it is starting to look like 'proper winter' !

No the only man for the job is peter gibbs, he reckons there might be the odd flake of snow later next week in east anglia with cold, grey overcast conditions, a short cold snap and then turning milder, he really loves the snow doesn't he.

The Gfs shows a change back to milder later so pete will be a happy bunny.

Edited February 16, 2013 by Frosty039

[goosey007]

No the only man for the job is peter gibbs, he reckons there might be the odd flake of snow later next week in east anglia with cold, grey overcast conditions, a short cold snap and then turning milder, he really loves the snow doesn't he.

The Gfs shows a change back to milder later so pete will be a happy bunny.

thats 12 days away ........FI mumbo jumbo..........and peter really needs to do his job and pay closer attention to the charts ......his comments are věry misleading!! Edited February 16, 2013 by goosey007

[kold weather]

Great morning runs, all would produce a snowy easterly by Saturday. Still some way to go mind you till we can be more confident.

[Frosty.]

thats 12 days away ........FI mumbo jumbo..........and peter really needs to do his job and pay closer attention to the charts ......his comments are věry misleading!!

I agree 100%, you would never guess there is a very cold wintry spell on the way if you listen to him, the 00z models look fantastic for the the coldest, snowiest spell of the winter to me, even snowier than january!

[That ECM]

Next weekend looks very interesting, to far out really to speculate. However Wednesday, will feel bitter for many. 2 or 3 degrees for many and couple that with an easterly with a mean flow of approx 15 mph gusting to 25 plus.

A lazy wind for sure!

Edited February 16, 2013 by That ECM

[Fred Sykes]

It's all very well looking at the models that far ahead, but we've been here before guys! So best not to assume nothing will change, because it's highly likely it will. It could be for the better but equally, could be for the worse. I'm not expert, but all it takes is that high to sink slightly, and we're left with no easterly convective showers, but cold fog!

[Polar Maritime]

Yes excellent runs this morning from the big 3, things are starting to firm up reg detail during this cold spell, should make for some interesting model watching over the weekend ! -10 uppers from the East = Bitter

[SLEETY]

No the only man for the job is peter gibbs, he reckons there might be the odd flake of snow later next week in east anglia with cold, grey overcast conditions, a short cold snap and then turning milder, he really loves the snow doesn't he.

The Gfs shows a change back to milder later so pete will be a happy bunny.

Is that his forecast for today on the news 24 channel? If it is,then what charts is he looking at that show a quick return to mild,because none of the models are showing this.

The constant underplaying of cold spells by certain BBC forecasters is becoming rather tiresome.

I wont even mention the temps ......

[chris78]

Is that his forecast for today on the news 24 channel? If it is,then what charts is he looking at that show a quick return to mild,because none of the models are showing this.

The constant underplaying of cold spells by certain BBC forecasters is becoming rather tiresome.

I wont even mention the temps ......

Why which 'epic' cold spell have they failed to ramp this winter? All I remember is epic charts with BBC and meto showing.caution......rightly so ......we've had no epic weather!

[SLEETY]

Why which 'epic' cold spell have they failed to ramp this winter? All I remember is epic charts with BBC and meto showing.caution......rightly so ......we've had no epic weather!

I'm talking in general,apart from the forthcoming cold spell,did I actually mention anything about this winter in general

Edited February 16, 2013 by SLEETY

[joggs]

Personally as a coldie im not liking what the models are showing as im a BRADFORD CITY fan and on the 24th weve got a certain game at Wembley lol.Cant it just hold off until i arrive back home that night ha ha ha.

[CWT2012]

An easterly is nailed on now, well into the 96hr reliable timeframe so all that is in question now is how much snow it will deliver

In terms of snow the models are upgrading with each run with some even showing -10 to -12 uppers which makes heavy deep snow across the eastern half of Britain more and more likely

Next week could well be talked about in many years to come, I fully expect COBRA might meet if the GFS 18z verifies

[Methuselah]

Come-on peeps...It's a tad early for getting hung-up over the eventual breakdown, isn't it?