Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/02/13 onwards.

[Mair Snaw]

http://www.meteociel...M1-168.GIF?15-0

Anyone moans at that they need banning.

~523 THickness

in -5c Air

Dewpoints ~ -3 to -5c

Windchill ~ -10c

Snow in the South & SE.

with an undercutter on our doorstep.

Great post as ever. some people are never happy.

[Liam J]

The T168 pressure chart is superb!! it's not as if it's the final run before the event and thats exactly how it's going look so I don't see what all this panic is about. Start worrying over upper air temps within T72 and sooner, not post 144/168.

Edited February 15, 2013 by Liam J

[Summer Sun]

T192

I feel a BOOM coming along plenty of snow for the south with a channel low

Edited February 15, 2013 by Gavin.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel...H1-192.GIF?15-0

heavy snow edging into the south -

500 MB thickness ~ 534 DAM which is fine.

before retreating away.

Edited February 15, 2013 by Steve Murr

[-uksnow-]

192 -

Not too shabby ehh!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

while the ecm 12z looks good out to 168h i see nowhere for the scandy high to go,its not going to greenland anytime soon anyway!

[Met4Cast]

I'm not sure what all the fuss is about if I'm honest.

Any showers that do actually develop in the largely dry South-East flow will hardly be particularly snowy with an upper profile like that, I feel some are jumping the gun slightly.

Dry, cold still the main theme, certainly nothing in the output in the past few days that convinces me we're going to see anything out of the ordinary.

[lord stratus]

As learned from experience..... we're not the Daily Express! Anyway, much could change on this one. No point in over-analysis at this range.

It wasn't a criticism, the ukmo have to be careful with their forecasts, could you imagine a weather presenter going with every gfs output? They would be laughed out of the breakfast tv studio on a daily basis!

[SMU]

while the ecm 12z looks good out to 168h i see nowhere for the scandy high to go,its not going to greenland anytime soon anyway!

Watch it go west at 216...........

USING THE 850s IS MEANINGLESS PEOPLE-

Edited February 15, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Cheshire Freeze]

Watch it go west at 216...........

Yep I was just about to say the same thing, though thought I'd wait for the 216 to be sure

[london-snow]

while the ecm 12z looks good out to 168h i see nowhere for the scandy high to go,its not going to greenland anytime soon anyway!

Oh well you win some & you lose some.

Tell you what though if you live in the south east ( I DO ) this run is brilliant!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Yep I was just about to say the same thing, though thought I'd wait for the 216 to be sure

i dont see it crewe

[chris78]

coming from someone who doesn't read the charts, I cant comment as to whether the negative posts are rash or not.....what I can say is.....several times this winter we have had a severe or to use the favored model thread parlance 'epic' cold spell modeled....but we have not had an 'epic' cold spell.......every time the models begin to back off, the first posters to show concern that spell may not be 'epic' after all...get a fair bit of stick (Ian B being the most extreme example)...........so I have no idea how likely a noteworthy cold spell is...and those previous examples of the naysayers being shot down only to be proved right....means this thread generally leaves me none the wiser.........

[snowking]

I'm not sure what all the fuss is about if I'm honest.

Any showers that do actually develop in the largely dry South-East flow will hardly be particularly snowy with an upper profile like that, I feel some are jumping the gun slightly.

Dry, cold still the main theme, certainly nothing in the output in the past few days that convinces me we're going to see anything out of the ordinary.

Looks as though I will have to dig out the old why it doesn't have to be -6c or below at 850mb under a shallow continental feed for precipitation to fall as snow

Whether we ge the convection in the first place is the doubt here, not whether it would fall as snow from a setup such as that

Anyway, all pointless conjecture at this range

SK

[Jamie R]

OK, for those who are saying its a downgrade, this chart was cold enough to bring snow to the isle of wight

and look at the uppers

I know its getting later in the season but under cloud cover and precipitation there wouldn't be much difference at the surface with cold dry continental air.

[nick sussex]

Big upgrade from the ECM with the high better orientated at 192hrs and 216hrs, great news you guys might stay in the cold a while longer.

If people put aside the worries about the upper air the ECM 12hrs synoptically is much better than the 00hrs.

Edited February 15, 2013 by nick sussex

[Summer Sun]

t216

The wind chill will make it feel bitter

Edited February 15, 2013 by Gavin.

[UV-RAY]

t216

The wind chill will make it feel bitter

Looks predominately dry for the bulk of the country.

[Paul_1978]

Its fantastic having all these weather modells compared to say charts from local met office back in the 70s and 80s that i had posted to me and by then completely out of date and big changes every time the post turned up .we have come along way in the last 30yrs or so but as we all know its whats around that next corner which i personally put at 144 hrs .to have say the met office put public 168 and 192 hr charts would just about make me hide behind the bookcase and peep at the charts past 144hrs and get the dog to wag its tail if they were good .im very confident on a cold easterly with eventually some snow ,but it is nice to dream a little which according to some research yrs ago people that live for snow are dreamers ,anyhow as i said earlier just a fair run from ECM and co and i will be happy , stella runs seem to go pear shape .heres to a classic

Mate I'd love to read your posts more but you need to start using paragraphs. But I agree, here's to a classic!

[Summer Sun]

Looks predominately dry for the bulk of the country.

Yep dry and chilly the south looks best suited for snow tonight especially at t192 (23rd)

[Cloud 10]

T192

I feel a BOOM coming along plenty of snow for the south with a channel low

I think this could be more likely....

Toys Out!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks much of a muchness at 216 but TBH I'm not really the later stages. That high has to either 1) Retreat back E/SE and let the Atlantic back in or 2) edge its way NW

With energy still be fed under at 216 I don't think it would both sit there and sag at its E extremity like that at the same time.

Just my thoughts.

Edited February 15, 2013 by CreweCold

[chris55]

ECM 12z deep cold uppers lacking, but snow is potentially plentiful, and the broader pattern is better than the 00z. Good run.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well the ecm is good for the SE in particular so im not going to begrudge all the SE contingent some of the white stuff.Those further north and west it looks dry and cold.

From a shelfish POV i always prefer a greeny high,alas it looks like this winter is going to produce not a sinlge greeny high,drat! lol.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

like the Dec 2002 E'ly this I feel, felt exceptionally bitter, on thursday 12th, front pushed in from south with snow flurries