South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 4th March 2013

[alexisj9]

Well on Monday we were forecast rain today and the sun has just broken out so shorts are still on

If they can't forecast 2 days ahead what's to say they won't be wrong about next week ?

I think they got today spot on cloudy but mild with posable drizzle/light rain at times, with sunny spells in the south east due to the slightly stronger wind bracking the cloud up a bit.

There has been some drizzle, there has been cloud, it has been mild, and the sun has poked out a few times.

[Tamara]

Well, so as to back up the sunshades to snowshoes theory of this time of year maybe we may be building one or two of these in the days ahead? This pic was taken back in January

Edited March 6, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Guest bjaykent]

I think pretty well all posts have this big caveat...

Hi Steve, absolutely right,I think I have typed the word 'caveat' nearly as many times as 'snow' this winter LOL. As fantastic as GFS forecast is for early next week, it is a worry that it is poles apart from UKMO & METO at the moment. I never like to rely on GFS this far out even though it has some support from ECM, it's like rebuilding the Titanic to the same specification then sailing to the Arctic and keeping your fingers crossed the same thing won't happen again.

Blue sky all around now and the sun is out!

Edited March 6, 2013 by bjaykent

[Tamara]

Hi GFS 0.5 (6z) for Monday 1pm, will be very cold - if it's right!

http://www.meteociel...indchill/3h.htm

Its uncanny how there is unanimous agreement amongst the GEFS members for the depth of cold. Either it is a statistic of huge significance, or one that is spectacularly wrong (as in they all are wrong!) Obviously it is going to get colder, but whether we see anything like this remains to be seen .

[alexisj9]

Hi Steve, absolutely right,I think I have typed the word 'caveat' nearly as many times as 'snow' this winter LOL. As fantastic as GFS forecast is for early next week, it is a worry that it is poles apart from UKMO & METO at the moment. I never like to rely on GFS this far out even though it has some support from ECM, it's like rebuilding the Titanic to the same specification then sailing to the Arctic and keeping your fingers crossed the same thing won't happen again.

Blue sky all around now and the sun is out!

Push our cloud away too please lol, still mostly cloudy with the odd break.

[Guest bjaykent]

Its uncanny how there is unanimous agreement amongst the GEFS members for the depth of cold. Either it is a statistic of huge significance, or one that is spectacularly wrong (as in they all are wrong!) Obviously it is going to get colder, but whether we see anything like this remains to be seen .

Yes the ensembles have been amazingly strong for several days now, it already looks like egg on face is inevitable for someone down the line!

[Neilsouth]

On the sources I was looking at the rain doesn't arrive until later today/early tomorrow. I guess it's all down to where you get the information and how you treat it?

Incorrect, stop looking at the forecast on the actual day

They have mentioned time and time again of nice days being mon/tues with cloud and cooler temps on wednesday with possible drizzle. Funny how I looked out the window expecting cloud and got beautiful blue skies!

And snows difficult to forecast? lol

This goes for this region(local south east today)

Edited March 6, 2013 by Victor Meldrew

[alexisj9]

Incorrect, stop looking at the forecast on the actual day

They have mentioned time and time again of nice days being mon/tues with cloud and cooler temps on wednesday with possible drizzle. Funny how I looked out the window expecting cloud and got beautiful blue skies!

And snows difficult to forecast? lol

This goes for this region(local south east today)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

This mentions sunny spells for the south east and even shows in the graphics less cloud cover over the north kent coast.

On the website they haven't updated south east today from yesterday yet, and even that show sunny spells for today.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2645799

Edited March 6, 2013 by alexisj9

[WillinGlossop]

Completely blue skies now. Somewhat at odds to the BBC forecast seen 4 minutes ago! Beautiful.

17c here scorchio!

[Guest bjaykent]

17c here scorchio!

Gone a bit cloudy here again but can see it warming up down your way on Wundermap. Looks a bit chilly on the Isle of Sheppy 7c!

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

I don't think these temps are hugely accurate but give a good indicator.

Edited March 6, 2013 by bjaykent

[Lauren]

I'm sure I've asked this before, but I can't find it.

Is there an idiots guide to understanding some of the charts posted here? I've looked in the learning section, but still don't really get it.

[Coast]

Incorrect, stop looking at the forecast on the actual day

I'll draw your attention to the overview I gave on the Sunday at 09.19 then eh?

A brief overview of the week to come has it looking dry until Thursday, then rainy through Friday and some of Saturday.

http://forum.netweat...660#entry262480

Edited March 6, 2013 by Coast

[Guest bjaykent]

I'm sure I've asked this before, but I can't find it.

Is there an idiots guide to understanding some of the charts posted here? I've looked in the learning section, but still don't really get it.

If i find something I'm not sure about I generally look in the learners area, I think there are some posts about understanding charts.

http://forum.netweat...-learners-area/

Edit sorry didn't read your post properly but this is generally where I go. Perhaps Coast knows somewhere more specific?

Edited March 6, 2013 by bjaykent

[CWT2012]

GFS has been onions all winter and finally delivers the goods in style, roll on next week

[cobbett]

Astonishing update from the metoffice - could be the most disruptive week of winter coming up !

[Coast]

Is there an idiots guide to understanding some of the charts posted here? I've looked in the learning section, but still don't really get it.

and so on!

[Guest bjaykent]

Astonishing update from the metoffice - could be the most disruptive week of winter coming up !

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_alltext.html

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Mar 2013 to Wednesday 20 Mar 2013:

Much colder conditions are expected to develop early next week. Rain, sleet and hill snow in the southeast at first on Monday clearing away with brighter conditions elsewhere spreading south. Snow showers are likely to increasingly affect northern and eastern regions through next week, but all areas are at risk of seeing sleet, hail and snow showers at times. There is a risk of some significant and disruptive amounts of snow in places, but there is currently uncertainty regarding which areas are most at risk. There will however, also be some sunshine, particularly further west. Widespread overnight frosts returning with a risk of icy patches. Signals are that it may gradually become slightly less cold by the following week as bands of rain edge eastwards, perhaps preceded by further snow.

Updated: 1151 on Wed 6 Mar 2013

UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Mar 2013 to Thursday 4 Apr 2013:

Most areas are likely to be colder than average during this period, with an easterly influence most probable. Generally, there are no strong signals regarding precipitation, but taking the period as a whole, in an easterly regime, some western and northwestern areas of the UK are most likely to be drier and sunnier than normal.

Updated: 1159 on Wed 6 Mar 2013

Bit of change, UKMO & fax chart might be interesting later!

[alexisj9]

http://www.metoffice...st_alltext.html

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Mar 2013 to Wednesday 20 Mar 2013:

Much colder conditions are expected to develop early next week. Rain, sleet and hill snow in the southeast at first on Monday clearing away with brighter conditions elsewhere spreading south. Snow showers are likely to increasingly affect northern and eastern regions through next week, but all areas are at risk of seeing sleet, hail and snow showers at times. There is a risk of some significant and disruptive amounts of snow in places, but there is currently uncertainty regarding which areas are most at risk. There will however, also be some sunshine, particularly further west. Widespread overnight frosts returning with a risk of icy patches. Signals are that it may gradually become slightly less cold by the following week as bands of rain edge eastwards, perhaps preceded by further snow.

Updated: 1151 on Wed 6 Mar 2013

UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Mar 2013 to Thursday 4 Apr 2013:

Most areas are likely to be colder than average during this period, with an easterly influence most probable. Generally, there are no strong signals regarding precipitation, but taking the period as a whole, in an easterly regime, some western and northwestern areas of the UK are most likely to be drier and sunnier than normal.

Updated: 1159 on Wed 6 Mar 2013

Bit of change, UKMO & fax chart might be interesting later!

Sounds like they think mostly up north but are unsure about later on. I hope we finally get something very good down here, we've had so much falling for little result so far.

[Jan_Bromley]

NO NO NO

I have been in my happy little place out in the garden. My budding plants will be attacked by Jack Frost!

BTW cloudy and mild today. Quite pleasant

[Steve C]

Still lots of uncertainty, but enough for people to start showing reasonable interest again. It'd be interesting if there was a prolonged period of snow embedded in this colder weather.

[cobbett]

Sounds like they think mostly up north but are unsure about later on. I hope we finally get something very good down here, we've had so much falling for little result so far.

Still the possibility of snow for southern areas on Sunday/Monday due to low pressure system in SW - GFS certainly think so. One to watch

[Steve C]

NO NO NO

I have been in my happy little place out in the garden. My budding plants will be attacked by Jack Frost!

BTW cloudy and mild today. Quite pleasant

Definitely time to take action to protect them. Sharp frosts look extremely likely, even if the snow ends up being not much of an issue.

[Suburban Streamer]

Funny how I looked out the window expecting cloud and got beautiful blue skies!

the thing i find even funnier is that u have been on this forum for so many years but u still look out the window expecting bbc graphics to verify!!

cant help getting a bit excited about next week and have to echo earlier posts regarding just how unprecedented the agreement on the ensembles are - rarely see that! and we have the met office on board too which is comforting

now just have to pray they are all correct and pray that our region hits the jackpot!

[Jan_Bromley]

Yes Steve, will look like a fruitloop wrapping my plants in newspaper

[blackprince]

Well the rain may come here sooner.... i have just washed the car for the first time this year lol , was very surprised to see nice blue skies today but I have just come in to get a nice cold drink Now casting as VM has said is great because you don't get you hopes dashed....like today the few reports on tv I saw seemed to suggest it clouding over last night but my near sun stroke was a nice surprise