South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/3/13 16z ------>

[slinky1989]

just ran the radar forward and back and it seems like the snow line has actually moved further north in the last half hour. The snow line is now only just at Birmingham whereas it was a few miles south in the previous radar frame.

[Cotswold Uplander]

just ran the radar forward and back and it seems like the snow line has actually moved further north in the last half hour. The snow line is now only just at Birmingham whereas it was a few miles south in the previous radar frame.

Not so - I'm near Birdlip in Gloucestershire and it's been snowing heavily all evening. I admit, it helps being 800 ft up in the Cotswolds though. Settling too but if the air temperature had been just half a degree lower I'd be buried by now.

[Mapantz]

Absolutely peeing down here. The roads are a nightmare! 5mm of rain in the last 45mins, 22mm since the start.

[jethro]

For those who were wondering earlier about the colder winters in recent years....

The Sun is currently in a very quiet period (despite being close to Solar max), it is expected to remain very quiet for some years to come, possible reaching the depths of activity experienced during the Dalton Minimum - a remote possibility it could be even lower and match a time known as the Maunder Minimum. During prolonged, deep minimum periods which last a number of years, the quiet Sun has been shown to have an impact upon winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere. The cause and effect isn't linked to climate change and has absolutely nothing to do with Boris's Martini effect from melting Arctic ice. What happens is the change in Solar activity changes the ultra violet light levels, this in turn has an impact upon the upper atmosphere which leads to changes in the jet stream. These changes create blocked weather patterns, leading to greater incidences of our weather coming from the East during the winter - hence colder and snowier.

Here's a selection of links for those who may want to read further. Included is info on both Dalton and Maunder minimum, the BBC report of the scientific paper which discovered this Solar effect, together with details on the scientist Mike Lockwood with links for the full paper (behind a pay wall). I've also included a brilliant Solar site for further reading on what is expected to happen with the Sun. Also for a bit of fun, a couple of links for historical weather info so you can look at what winters were like during the Dalton and Maunder periods. It's a lot of reading but as some of you nutters are talking about staying up all night to check the model runs, it may help while away the hours..... IMO, next winter 2013/2014 will give us something closer to 1963 and I then expect us to have a few winters similar to those experienced during WW11....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalton_Minimum

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8615789.stm

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/users/users/1353

http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/

http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/histclimat.htm

[lfcdude]

What is the road called.. between Fordingbridge and Alderholt?

Isit Dorset our Hampshire?

always use to flood as a kid.. had tv crews on bridge when i was their in 01 03? either way would love to be able to drive just to see that bit of river... sure any one who lives their knows what bit... wonder to watch.. would be all flooded now... nice experience for someone near Bournemouth

Edited March 22, 2013 by lfcdude

[Dorsetbred]

What is the road called.. between Fordingbridge and Alderholt?

Isit Dorset our Hampshire?

always use to flood as a kid.. had tv crews on bridge when i was their in 01 03? either way would love to be able to drive just to see that bit of river... sure any one who lives their knows what bit... wonder to watch.. would be all flooded now... nice experience for someone near Bournemouth

You ,mean the B3078 Fordingbridge Rd, which (if travelling from Fordingbridge) starts in Hampshire and finishes in Dorset. After last nights rainfall, giving it a while to run off the Avon, I'm sure will be in flood later.

[divadee]

Good morning all hope everyone in the SW is safe from flooding. It's stopped raining here but the wind is still very strong.

[festivalking]

still lashing it down here, radar for Devon and Cornwall makes for grim viewing

[festivalking]

hey hey some thunder just to add to the heavy rain.

[Frosty_wsm]

Yeah I just had a long peak and then browsed some of the other regional threads. Wish I hadn't.

Reading some of the other regional threads has cheered me up, got some moaning in the north west as some up there are missing out and the ppn appears to have cleared through northern ireland when it was supposed to stall so members there are moaning and bashing the Met already! Oh the joys of being a snow fan in the uk eh lol

[AWD]

Reading some of the other regional threads has cheered me up, got some moaning in the north west as some up there are missing out and the ppn appears to have cleared through northern ireland when it was supposed to stall so members there are moaning and bashing the Met already! Oh the joys of being a snow fan in the uk eh lol

Noticed that too. Sounds like we aren't missing out on anything extra special really. NW and Irish thread not too happy!

[Coast]

Heavy rain and snow cause disruption

Heavy rainfall is causing flooding in the South West of England while snow has fallen in parts of the UK, with more disruption expected later.

In Devon and Cornwall, homes have flooded and drivers have been rescued from their cars. The Environment Agency has 18 flood warnings in place for the South West. The Met Office has two amber warnings for snow, covering much of the UK. Flights at Leeds Bradford Airport have been grounded due to the weather. The snow would cause travel disruption across northern parts of the UK on Friday, the BBC's Tomasz Schafernaker said. Some 20cm-40cm (8in-16in) of snow could fall in places.

'Immediate action'

Roads in northern parts of Wales, the Midlands into the Pennines, southern Scotland and Northern Ireland would be the worst affected on Friday, while gale force winds would blow snow and drifts across trans-Pennine routes.Heavy snow could continue into Saturday and Sunday, he said. He warned of flooding problems across the south and said parts of southern Cornwall and Devon could see 50-75mm of rain falling in a 24-48-hour period. We strongly urge people to sign up to flood warnings on the Environment Agency website, keep a close eye on local weather forecasts and be prepared for possible floodingâ€

Environment Agency

The warnings come just over a week before the start of British Summer Time. On Friday morning, roads closed because of snow included the A53 in Derbyshire, between the A54 Macclesfield main road junction in Buxton and the Thorncliff Road junction in Leek, and the A54 in Cheshire, between the Chester Road and Morreys Lane junctions. In Cornwall, the A39 in Perranarworthal was closed at Norway Inn because of flooding.

On Thursday night into Friday morning, areas of Cornwall - including Newlyn, Penzance, Mevagissy and St Ives - were flooded, with the fire service taking about 50 calls between 18:00 and 21:00. Areas of Devon, including Ashburton, were also affected while, in two separate incidents in Plymstock, people were rescued by fire crews after being stuck in their cars in flood water.

Sgt Dave Opara, from Devon and Cornwall Police, said: "There has been a considerable amount of rainfall across the force area. "There will be more to come throughout the night so the situation is not going to get much better too soon." As well as setting flood warnings - meaning "flooding is expected, immediate action required" - in the South West, the Environment Agency also has 80 flood alerts - meaning "flooding is possible, be prepared" - across England. Spokesman Ben Johnstone said: "We strongly urge people to sign up to flood warnings on the Environment Agency website, keep a close eye on local weather forecasts and be prepared for possible flooding." People should not try to wade or drive through any deep water, he added.

Hampden warning

The Met has one amber warning - meaning "be prepared" - for rain for some southern parts of Cornwall and Devon. There are also yellow warnings - meaning "be aware" - in place for areas including parts of eastern Scotland and parts of south-west Scotland. Belfast International Airport has warned passengers there could be delays on Friday and Saturday because of heavy rain and snow. Scotland has already borne the brunt of heavy snowfall, which made driving conditions hazardous and forced the closure of more than 100 schools earlier this week. Transport Scotland urged fans travelling to the World Cup qualifier between Scotland and Wales at Glasgow's Hampden stadium on Friday night to check travel information throughout the day in case of disruption.

AA head of operations Darron Burness, meanwhile, has warned of "a real witches' brew of driving wind, rain and snow" for drivers across the UK. "Drivers should be well prepared as even short journeys can quickly turn bad," he said. "Wherever you're going, take plenty of warm layers, check the travel reports before heading out and stick to the main roads where possible."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21885817

[AWD]

The ECM shows a near channel low scenario for us on April Fools Day;

Who's going to fall for it then? lol

[Polar Bear]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21885817

Thanks for posting coast ... My one issue with that is the last para from BBC which doesn't actually help. If it is bad and as a witches brew how's about a reminder to avoid driving if at all possible rather than take a few warm things etc .. MetOffice does all it can to warn people and the highways agency to keep people safe but please can the BBC just maybe suggest to people to try and avoid driving unless absolutely necessary... Rant over at the BBC oh and the AA spokesperson

Edited March 22, 2013 by Polar Bear

[Bristawl Si]

Seems a bit of a wet snow/slush fest reading some of the other regionals this morning, other than for the higher parts. Did the Meto overestimate the severity of the system?

Plus, just watching the weather on BBC News24 it doesn't look like any real movement south, even for tomorrow where there was a chance we'd get in on the action.

Oh well, is that it then, for the 'nearly-snow' winter in the West?

Edited March 22, 2013 by Bristle boy

[AWD]

My mate who lives just outside Lancaster up norf has sent me this, current situation as of now;

I'll pass on that thanks. :)

[Coast]

Jeez you guys look like you have some rain coming. I hope it doesn't get too silly for you all:

[Bristawl Si]

My mate who lives just outside Lancaster up norf has sent me this, current situation as of now;

I'll pass on that thanks. :)

Chortle! Chortle!

Been in work 20 mins - think i'll pop to the cafe in a mo and celebrate with a Friday morning Bacon buttie! LOL!

[AWD]

From Ian;

"W COUNTRY Heaviest rain expected later afternoon-evening. Tendency for any snow in Cotswolds to revert to sleet/rain; but back to snow 2nite"

[-uksnow-]

Chortle! Chortle!

Been in work 20 mins - think i'll pop to the cafe in a mo and celebrate with a Friday morning Bacon buttie! LOL!

This from my sister in Birmingham, not all bad.

Anyhow, another very cold ECM run, would be quite snowy for the south in its latter frames

[cornish snow]

Reading some of the other regional threads has cheered me up, got some moaning in the north west as some up there are missing out and the ppn appears to have cleared through northern ireland when it was supposed to stall so members there are moaning and bashing the Met already! Oh the joys of being a snow fan in the uk eh lol

Now you know how i feel pretty much every cold spell. Switch on the t.v to see it snowing from bodmin northwards.

[Bristawl Si]

Looking at the progress of the system northwards just now on the radar looks like it got some real umph north from the energy coming up from the south/south west, so maybe pushed it further north than progged yesterday?

[AWD]

Railway line between Liskeard and Looe is closed due to flooding.

Internal reports suggest a house about to fall into the track!!!!

Edited March 22, 2013 by AWD

[Average Joe]

Stay safe everyone down West. Just spoken with my folks on the farm in Ludgvan and it's really not good!!!

[Sainsbo]

Seems we've missed the worst of it herre for now. Only 5mm so far.